Severe Thunderstorm Warning 292, NWS North Platte, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
243 PM CDT WED JUL 9 2008

.SYNOPSIS...

H5 RIDGE OVER WESTERN CONUS WITH CLEAR SKIES IN VISIBLE. SURFACE
FRONT FROM LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TO
SOUTHERN KANSAS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE NEAR TERM HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS NAM
WRF. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN PLAINS AGAIN
TONIGHT. HAVE INCLUDED POPS FOR NORTH AND NORTH CENTRAL ZONES
THROUGH THE NIGHTAND INTO EARLY AM. VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WITH
ADEQUATE MOISTURE. STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION OVER NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
TO SOAR INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S. WARMER TEMPERATURES IN VTN
VICINITY WITH SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR. ENTIRE CWA REMAINS HIGHLY
UNSTABLE BUT WITH STRONG CAP AND NO TRIGGERS HAVE LEFT DRY FOR
NOW. FRIDAY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE COMMENCES NORTHWEST IN THE AM AND
BY NOON SHOULD BE FROM KONL TO KOGA LINE HAVE ADDED SCHC POPS WITH
FROPA SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. MODELS NOT HANDLING SITUATION WELL AND
POPS MAY HAVE TO BE UPPED AND EXPANDED. FOR THE LAST WEEK WITH
MINIMAL LIFT HAVE BEEN ABLE TO KICK OFF SCATTERED COVERAGES NOW
WITH GOOD LIFT SB CAPES TO 2000 JOULES/KG MODELS BRINGING SYSTEM
THROUGH DRY. MODELS HAVE PROGGED FRONT TO PUSH INTO SOUTHERN
KANSAS AND NOT STALL IT OUT OVER NORTHERN KANSAS SO HAVE PULLED
POPS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

EXTENDED...H5 RIDGE BUILDING INTO NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH FIRST OF
THE WORK WEEK. HAVE TWEAKED TEMPERATURES UP SOME WITH POPS ADDED
FOR MONDAY AS WEAK BOUNDARY BEGINS TO MOVE EAST INTO THE
PANHANDLE. NEXT SYSTEM ON TRACK FOR WEDNESDAY BUT GFS AND ECMWF
VARY ON DEPTH AND STRENGTH OF SYSTEM HAVE LEFT DRY FOR NOW WITH
UNCERTAINTY. TEMPERATURES NORMAL FOR THE SEASON AND DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...

SIMILAR PATTERN TO THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR TERMINAL SITES KLBF AND KVTN.
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PUSH YET ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE REGION.
ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT. COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE VERY WIDESPREAD
AND WILL HOLD OFF ON INCLUDING THUNDER IN THE TAFS YET...HOWEVER
WILL INCLUDE CB TO CIGS. ALTHOUGH THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT A
STORM WILL TRAVERSE THE TERMINAL SITES...IF ANY DO CROSS THE
TERMINAL...A BRIEF REDUCTION TO MVFR CONDITIONS FROM CIGS AND/OR
VSBY FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

MASEK/POWER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
337 PM CDT WED JUL 9 2008

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-102045-
SHERIDAN-EASTERN CHERRY-KEYA PAHA-BOYD-BROWN-ROCK-HOLT-GARDEN-
GRANT-HOOKER-THOMAS-BLAINE-LOUP-GARFIELD-WHEELER-ARTHUR-MCPHERSON-
LOGAN-CUSTER-DEUEL-KEITH-PERKINS-LINCOLN-CHASE-HAYES-FRONTIER-
WESTERN CHERRY-
337 PM CDT WED JUL 9 2008 /237 PM MDT WED JUL 9 2008/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME MARGINALLY SEVERE WITH
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL...MAINLY FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF
GORDON IN SHERIDAN COUNTY TO BROKEN BOW IN CUSTER COUNTY LINE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

A FEW LINGERING THUNDERSHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY
MORNING...MAINLY EFFECT AREAS NORTHEAST OF VALENTINE TO TAYLOR
LINE. THEN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. DURING PEAK HEATING...STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS MAY INITIATE FOR AREAS SOUTH OF A LINE FROM GRANT
THROUGH NORTH PLATTE AND ONEILL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...
HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATOLOGICAL INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/NORTHPLATTE

MASEK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1125 PM CDT WED JUL 09 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0754 PM     HAIL             21 WNW GORDON           42.92N 102.59W
07/09/2008  E1.00 INCH       SHERIDAN           NE   PUBLIC

0852 PM     HAIL             5 S HAY SPRINGS         42.61N 102.69W
07/09/2008  E0.88 INCH       SHERIDAN           NE   PUBLIC

0853 PM     HAIL             GORDON                  42.81N 102.20W
07/09/2008  E1.00 INCH       SHERIDAN           NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

SPRINGER