Severe Thunderstorm Warning 223, NWS North Platte, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
340 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2008

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST FOCUS ON TEMPERATURES THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

LOW PRESSURE IN WY/SE MT AND THE FRONT RANGE.  CONVECTION HAS
ERUPTED BACK THERE WITH SOME CU NOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE.  RUC MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THE AREA NEARLY UNCAPPED LATE
THIS AFTERNOON SO IT WON/T TAKE MUCH TO GET GOING THIS EVENING.
AFTER LAST NIGHT/S STORMS NO OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ARE APPARENT ATTM
BUT MAY BECOME VISIBLE OVER THE NEXT HOUR.

WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO CROSS THE 90 MARK FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA FOR THE FIRST TIME IN 2008 TOMORROW.  MODELS AND MODEL
SOUNDINGS LOOK MORE HOPEFUL FOR MORE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON
WEDNESDAY.  RAISED POPS A BIT FOR TOMORROW EVENING AND A GOOD THREAT
FOR SEVERE TOMORROW NIGHT WITH JUST ENOUGH CAP TO HOLD THINGS IN
PLACE FOR LATE AFTERNOON RELEASE WITH A FRONT WORKING INTO THE AREA.

THURSDAY...A SECOND FRONT APPROACHES AND BRINGS ANOTHER CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS.  FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BACK DOWN A
FEW DEGREES AFTER THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.  DEW POINTS DROP BACK
AS WELL.

LOOKING AT THE EXTENDED FORECAST SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... IS
CHARACTERIZED BY RIDGING AND A MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH A
RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND RESULTANT WARMING INTO THE 90S.
AMPLIFIED PATTERN ALSO TO BRING DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH MID
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CIGS HGHTS SHOULD BE AOA 120KFT
AGL HOWEVER SOME CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP INTO THE WESTERN SANDHILLS
AND PANHANDLE...WHERE CIGS HGHTS MAY DROP TO AROUND 5KFT NEAR THE
STORMS...WHERE VSBYS MAY ALSO BE REDUCED TO AROUND 3 MILES IN THE
RAIN SHOWERS. GUSTY WINDS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE
THREATS TO LIGHT AIRCRAFT NEAR THESE STORMS. A FRONT MOVING INTO THE
CENTRAL PORTION OF NEBRASKA WILL LEAD TO ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER ON
WEDNESDAY WITH MAINLY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

PHILLIPS/HIRSCH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
353 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2008

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-252100-
SHERIDAN-EASTERN CHERRY-KEYA PAHA-BOYD-BROWN-ROCK-HOLT-GARDEN-
GRANT-HOOKER-THOMAS-BLAINE-LOUP-GARFIELD-WHEELER-ARTHUR-MCPHERSON-
LOGAN-CUSTER-DEUEL-KEITH-PERKINS-LINCOLN-CHASE-HAYES-FRONTIER-
WESTERN CHERRY-
353 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2008 /253 PM MDT TUE JUN 24 2008/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

STRONG DAYTIME HEATING AND BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER FROM THE STORMS ON MONDAY
NIGHT MAY BE ENOUGH TO SPARK THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS EVENING AND INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. THE GREATEST RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT LOOKS TO BE NORTH OF A OGALLALA TO THEDFORD TO ONEILL
LINE THIS EVENING...BUT CAN NOT BE RULED OUT ELSEWHERE. THE MAIN
THREAT WILL BE FROM LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOST OF
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A
SURFACE BOUNDARY LOOKS TO STALL OVER THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE INTO
THE SANDHILLS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ONCE AGAIN...THIS FRONT WILL
PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT AND WIND PROFILES
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THE GREATEST RISK
FOR LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE NEAR THIS
FRONT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHEN CONDITIONS ARE
MOST UNSTABLE.

THIS BOUNDARY LOOKS TO REMAIN NEAR WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA INTO THE LATE WEEK TIME PERIOD. THEREFORE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT...AND SEVERE WEATHER CONDITIONS...WILL BE POSSIBLE
EACH DAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY
ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...
HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/LBF(ALL LOWERCASE)

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