Severe Thunderstorm Warning 213, NWS North Platte, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
305 PM CDT MON JUN 23 2008

.SHORTER TERM DISCUSSION (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
NAM/GFS MODEL SOLUTIONS NOT MUCH HELP WRT CONVECTION TONIGHT. BASED
ON MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH PWS NEAR 1.25 AND H85 WIND TRAJECTORIES
INTO THE NEBR PANHANDLE WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION
TO DEVELOP IN ERN PNHDLE AND PROPAGATE SOUTHEAST THROUGH SWRN NEBR
TONIGHT. WV IMAGERY SHOWS WEAK SHORTWAVE LOCATED ACROSS NWRN CO INTO
CENTRAL WYOMING. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY OR CATEGORICAL
TONIGHT FOR AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF HWY 2. STORM MOTION TO BE EAST
SOUTHEAST WITH MCS POSSIBLY DEVELOPING AND MOVING RIGHT OF THE MEAN
FLOW. NOT ONLY WILL LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BE A THREAT...SO
TOO WILL HEAVY RAINFALL. ALTHOUGH NOT OUTLOOKED IN THE EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL GRAPHIC...FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ACROSS SWRN NEBR
(ESPECIALLY SERN LINCOLN AND FRONTIER COUNTY). BULK OF ACTIVITY WILL
EXIT BY 09Z. ALL OR PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN IN A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY. MOST FAVORABLE TIME
FOR MORE WIDESPREAD STORMS REMAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
UPPER TROUGH BRINGS IN SOME MID LEVEL COOLING ALONG WITH AN
ADVANCING COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL TOMORROW WITH
A WARMUP INTO THE 90S POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY. INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA INCLUDING NORTH PLATTE HAS NOT YET REACHED
90 FOR  HIGHS THIS MONTH.

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
COOLING INTO THE UPPER 70S AND MID 80S EXPECTED FRIDAY AS A COLD
FRONT DROP THROUGH. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY WITH ANY PRECIPITATION FAVORED TO BE ISOLATED AND
TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS MAY GIVE WAY TO OCNL MVFR THIS EVENING AS CONVECTION
MOVES OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. CIGS AND
VSBYS COULD BE AFFECTED BY THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND
HAIL. WINDS SHOULD ALSO BE QUITE GUSTY NEAR THESE STORMS AND AVOIDED
BY LIGHT AIRCRAFT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS TO LINGER BEHIND THE
INITIAL PUSH OF CONVECTION AND THERE IS SOME INDICATION OF
LIMITATIONS TO VSBY ALONG WITH LOWER CIGS IN THE IFR CATEGORY. IF THE
CIGS FAIL TO FROM VSBYS MAY ACTUALLY LEAD TO IFR/LIFR CONDTIONS WITH
THE CLEARING SKIES ALOFT..EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND RESIDUAL
MOISTURE FROM THE PRECIPITATION.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

ROBERG/13

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
634 PM CDT MON JUN 23 2008

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-242345-
SHERIDAN-EASTERN CHERRY-KEYA PAHA-BOYD-BROWN-ROCK-HOLT-GARDEN-
GRANT-HOOKER-THOMAS-BLAINE-LOUP-GARFIELD-WHEELER-ARTHUR-MCPHERSON-
LOGAN-CUSTER-DEUEL-KEITH-PERKINS-LINCOLN-CHASE-HAYES-FRONTIER-
WESTERN CHERRY-
634 PM CDT MON JUN 23 2008 /534 PM MDT MON JUN 23 2008/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS PORTION OF WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGH MIDNIGHT...MAINLY WEST OF A LINE
FROM VALENTINE TO CURTIS. ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE EAST OF THIS AREA LATER TONIGHT. THE
MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS...ALONG WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO OSCILLATE NORTH AND SOUTH
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY IN MUCH OF
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. AS ANOTHER FRONT COMES OUT OF
THE DAKOTAS...THERE IS A RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHERN
NEBRASKA THURSDAY.

THE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...THOUGH THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
TIMING...STRENGTH AND EXTENT OF THE STORMS AFTER WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TONIGHT...AS WELL AS
REPORTS OF HEAVY RAINFALL.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...
HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATOLOGICAL INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/NORTHPLATTE

JWS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
659 PM CDT MON JUN 23 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0656 PM     HAIL             15 NNW OSHKOSH          41.61N 102.46W
06/23/2008  E0.25 INCH       GARDEN             NE   PUBLIC

            HEAVY RAIN WAS ALSO REPORTED.

&&

CARMEL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
713 PM CDT MON JUN 23 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0705 PM     HAIL             40 SW VALENTINE         42.46N 101.10W
06/23/2008  E0.88 INCH       CHERRY             NE   PUBLIC

&&

CARMEL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
832 PM CDT MON JUN 23 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0830 PM     HAIL             30 NNW MULLEN           42.44N 101.27W
06/23/2008  E1.75 INCH       CHERRY             NE   PUBLIC

&&

CARMEL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
949 PM CDT MON JUN 23 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0930 PM     HAIL             25 NW MULLEN            42.30N 101.39W
06/23/2008  E1.00 INCH       CHERRY             NE   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

&&

CARMEL