Severe Thunderstorm Warning 126, NWS North Platte, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
354 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2008

.DISCUSSION...
ONE MORE ROUND OF A PROLONGED SEVERE WEATHER EVENT EXPECTED TODAY
AND TONIGHT.

500MB LOW ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROF OVER THE FOUR CORNERS THIS
MORNING...AND WILL HEAD FOR THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY. MEANWHILE
SURFACE LOW DEEPENING OVER WESTERN KS...ALSO LIFTING NORTH
NORTHEAST ALONG A NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY. THIS WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR A MAJOR SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
OUTLOOK AREA. WARM AIR ADVECTION EAST OF THE BOUNDARY TO CREATE A
CAP FOR PART OF THE DAY...AND THE BUILD UP OF HIGH
INSTABILITY...2K-3K J/KG OF CAPE. AS THE CAP BREAKS WITH PEAK
HEATING GREAT SHEAR WILL CAUSE SUPERCELLS TO RAPIDLY DEVELOP. SPC
HAS HOISTED A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER AND AGREE. TO THE
WEST OF THE BOUNDARY...COOLER TEMPS ALOFT WITH HIGH SURF
MOISTURE...LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. SCT
SHOWERS ALREADY DEVELOPING OVER CO AND WILL PUSH INTO/ACROSS
WESTERN NEBRASKA THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ANOTHER CONCERN FOR THE DAY
WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY OVER AREAS
THAT HAVE VERY WET GROUNDS IN THE EAST. EXPANDED AND EXTENDED FF
WATCH TO COVER HEAVY PRECIP POTENTIAL. PRECIP H20 IS AT ONE INCH
TO 1.5 INCHES OVER EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA...AND COINCIDES WITH
HPC SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL GRAPHIC.

ACTIVITY TO DIE DOWN/MOVE NORTHEAST OF CWA OVERNIGHT INTO
TOMORROW MORNING WITH FINALLY A BREAK IN THE ACTION SET FOR
FRIDAY. DECREASING CLOUDS WILL HELP TEMPS WARM INTO THE MID 70S TO
MID 80S. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND DEPARTING TROF EXPECTED TO KEEP ANY
ACTIVITY FROM DEVELOPING.

LULL IN THE ACTIVITY TO BE SHORT LIVED AS NEXT TROF TO MOVE ACROSS
THE ROCKIES ON SATURDAY. STORMS TO FIRE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
THEN MOVE EAST LATE IN THE DAY. ONGOING FORECAST HANDLING WELL SO
NOT MANY CHANGES MADE. TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER PATTERN TO CONTINUE
INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
WITH ANY WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WITH MOISTURE
CONTINUING TO BE AVAILABLE.

&&

.AVIATION...
PERSISTENT MVFR CEILINGS ARE FORECAST AT BOTH THE KLBF AND KVTN
TERMINALS FROM 12Z THIS MORNING THROUGH 09Z TONIGHT. OCCASIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND THIS EVENING AS A BROAD TROF
OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTS ONTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS FROM THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 40 KTS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY
OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH OCCASIONAL HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED. CEILINGS AND
WEATHER WILL IMPROVE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS THE BEFORE MENTIONED
TROF PUSHES EAST INTO THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING FOR NEZ005>010-026>029- 038-059-069>071.

&&

MASEK/CLB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
428 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2008

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-061030-
SHERIDAN-EASTERN CHERRY-KEYA PAHA-BOYD-BROWN-ROCK-HOLT-GARDEN-
GRANT-HOOKER-THOMAS-BLAINE-LOUP-GARFIELD-WHEELER-ARTHUR-MCPHERSON-
LOGAN-CUSTER-DEUEL-KEITH-PERKINS-LINCOLN-CHASE-HAYES-FRONTIER-
WESTERN CHERRY-
428 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2008 /328 AM MDT THU JUN 5 2008/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT
ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. A MODERATE RISK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 FROM VALENTINE TO
MAYWOOD. WEST OF THIS LINE...A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
IS FORECAST.

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROF OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT EAST OF THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON. AS THIS FEATURE APPROACHES
WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA...IT WILL ENCOUNTER A VERY
MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS. EXPLOSIVE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL
RESULT WITH STORMS RAPIDLY BECOMING SEVERE. LARGE HAIL WILL BE
THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WEST OF HIGHWAY 83.

EAST OF HIGHWAY 83...DEEP MIXED LAYER SHEAR...WILL RESULT IN
SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND
TORNADOES...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE LONG TRACKED IN NATURE.

AFTER SUNSET...THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL SHIFT FROM LARGE
HAIL AND TORNADOES...TO HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING. A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHWESTERN...CENTRAL AND
NORTHEASTERN AREAS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA...AS A GOOD POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR HEAVY RAIN TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT...AND TUESDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ANTICIPATED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER GROUPS ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA SHOULD BE
PREPARED FOR ACTIVATION TODAY AND THIS EVENING...AS A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE
WEATHER OUTBREAK IS POSSIBLE.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...
HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATOLOGICAL INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/NORTHPLATTE

BUTTLER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
759 AM CDT THU JUN 05 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0730 PM     HAIL             HAYES CENTER            40.51N 101.02W
06/04/2008  M4.25 INCH       HAYES              NE   CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

CARMEL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
801 AM CDT THU JUN 05 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0900 PM     HAIL             3 NNE CURTIS            40.67N 100.49W
06/04/2008  M1.75 INCH       FRONTIER           NE   CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

CARMEL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
807 AM CDT THU JUN 05 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0802 AM     HAIL             2 S WALLACE             40.81N 101.16W
06/05/2008  M2.75 INCH       LINCOLN            NE   PUBLIC

            GOLFBALL TO BASEBALL SIZE HAIL AT TIME OF REPORT.

&&

CARMEL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
808 AM CDT THU JUN 05 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0807 AM     HAIL             WALLACE                 40.84N 101.16W
06/05/2008  M1.75 INCH       LINCOLN            NE   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

CARMEL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
846 AM CDT THU JUN 05 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0846 AM     HAIL             7 S HERSHEY             41.06N 101.00W
06/05/2008  M0.75 INCH       LINCOLN            NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

CARMEL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
847 AM CDT THU JUN 05 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0845 AM     HAIL             NORTH PLATTE            41.13N 100.77W
06/05/2008  E0.88 INCH       LINCOLN            NE   PUBLIC

            NICKEL SIZED HAIL WAS REPORTED IN SOUTH PART OF TOWN NEAR
            CENTENNIAL PARK.

&&

SPRINGER