Coastal Flood Statement 1, NWS Key West, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
340 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008

.DISCUSSION...
A FEW THIN BANDS CONTINUE TO SPIRAL WELL SOUTH OF TS FAY...
STRETCHING FROM OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE MAINLAND...ALONG AND
ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FLORIDA KEYS. A SPORADIC STROKE OF LIGHTNING
ACCOMPANIES SOME OF THE STRONGER CELLS WITHIN THESE BANDS.
FAST-PACED SHOWERS HAVE THREATENED A LONG STRETCH OF THE ISLAND
CHAIN FROM LATE THIS MORNING AND UP TO THIS POINT IN THE AFTERNOON.
BUT THE DOWNPOURS HAVE BEEN BRIEF. WINDS ARE FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY
STRONG OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AWAY FROM ANY CONVECTION...WITH A
GRADUAL DOWNWARD TREND NOTED ON ALL CMAN SENSORS THIS AFTERNOON.

THE UPCOMING FORECAST WILL REQUIRE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS MAINLY THROUGH
THE MIDDLE PERIODS. AS TS FAY WORKS ITS WAY NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA TONIGHT...THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST HAS IT
APPROACHING THE EAST-NORTHEAST COAST OF THE STATE BY SUNRISE ON
WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG THE FORECAST
MODELS AS FAR AS ITS NORTHWARD MOVEMENT GOES...ALL GUIDANCE NOW
POINTS TO A WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE LATE DAYS OF THIS WORK WEEK.
AND TO THAT END...ALL GUIDANCES NOW KEEPS THE ATLANTIC RIDGE SHUNTED
TO THE SOUTH OF THE KEYS FOR A MUCH LONGER PERIOD OF TIME THAN ON
PREVIOUS RUNS. THAT SAID...LOCAL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE A
SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT LASTING AT LEAST THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. WE SHOULD REMAIN QUITE MOIST EVEN AS THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE LIFTS NORTH IN CONJUNCTION WITH FAY. AND ALTHOUGH
CONVECTION HAS A TENDENCY TO BE SUPPRESSED AS A TROPICAL SYSTEM
DEPARTS...WE STAND A STEADY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE ALIGNED FLOW WILL ALSO
REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR DAYTIME REVERSE CLOUD LINES OVER THE FLORIDA
KEYS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SO WITH THE EXPECTED MOISTURE...
INSTABILITY...AND LACK OF INHIBITION...WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS IN
THE FORECAST FOR ALL PERIODS OF THIS FORECAST. LOW CONFIDENCE EXISTS
THROUGH THE LATE PERIODS OF THE FORECAST...HINGING OF COURSE ON WHAT
FAY DOES WELL TO OUR NORTH...BUT POTENTIALLY RELUCTANT TO LEAVE THE
REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
STRONG GUSTS CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE CMAN SENSORS ON THE NORTHEAST
PORTION OF OUR SERVICE AREA...AND SEA CONDITIONS UNDOUBTEDLY REMAIN
HIGH. NEAR THE OTHER END OF OUR AREA...A SERIES OF SHIP REPORTS
BEYOND THE SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY OF OUR ATLANTIC WATERS HAS SHOWN 4
HALF-METER SEA HEIGHTS WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER WINDS. SO A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR ALL WATERS AT LEAST IN THE SHORT
TERM. I WILL BE ADVERTISING A SLOW BUT STEADY DOWNWARD TREND TO BOTH
THE WINDS AND SEAS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...BUT THE LATER SHIFTS MAY
INDEED NEED TO EXTEND THE ADVISORIES FURTHER INTO
WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR OUR NORTHERN AND EASTERN MARINE ZONES AND
FOR LINGERING HAZARDOUS SEAS. AS STATED ON AN EARLIER
SHIFT...OPERATORS OF SMALL CRAFT SHOULD BE IN NO HURRY TO GET OUT IN
THE OPEN WATERS. ALLOW THE SEAS TO SETTLE BACK TO MORE AGREEABLE
CONDITIONS AND KEEP ABREAST OF LATER MARINE FORECASTS FROM THIS
OFFICE.

MORE AGREEABLE BOATING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE LATER
HALF OF THIS WEEK AS THE WINDS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MODERATE.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE KEYW AND KMTH ISLAND TERMINALS
TONIGHT. FAST MOVING SMALL SHOWERS WILL PASS THE TERMINALS FROM TIME
TO TIME...AND MAY PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS. DUE TO
THE EXPECTED BRIEF NATURE OF ANY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS...DID NOT
ADVERTISE THESE IN THE TAFS. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  79 89 80 89 / 30 30 30 30
MARATHON  79 91 79 91 / 30 30 30 30

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GMZ031-GMZ032-GMZ033-GMZ052-GMZ053-
     GMZ054-GMZ072-GMZ073-GMZ074-GMZ075.

&&

PUBLIC/MARINE............04/APA
AVIATION/NOWCASTS........AL/SD
DATA COLLECTION..........DR/TF

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1155 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008

FLZ076>078-GMZ031>033-052>054-072>075-200945-
MONROE UPPER KEYS-MONROE MIDDLE KEYS-MONROE LOWER KEYS-
FLORIDA BAY-GULF SIDE OF THE LOWER KEYS OUT 20 NM-
GULF WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE 20 TO 60 NM OUT-
OCEAN REEF TO CRAIG KEY OUT 20 NM-
CRAIG KEY TO THE WEST END OF THE 7 MILE BRIDGE OUT 20 NM-
WEST END OF THE 7 MILE BRIDGE TO KEY WEST OUT 20 NM-
OCEAN REEF TO CRAIG KEY 20 TO 60 NM OUT-
CRAIG KEY TO THE WEST END OF THE 7 MILE BRIDGE 20 TO 60 NM OUT-
WEST END OF THE 7 MILE BRIDGE TO KEY WEST 20 TO 60 NM OUT-
KEY WEST TO 20 NM WEST OF DRY TORTUGAS OUT 60 NM-
1155 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS AND
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

DESPITE TROPICAL STORM FAY MOVING SLOWLY FARTHER AWAY FROM OUR
REGION...SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS
WILL CONTINUE ON KEYS WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. SUBSEQUENTLY...A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL KEYS WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE LATE TONIGHT.

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS
SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

IN ADDITION...RAPIDLY MOVING BANDS OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL GENERATE STRONG GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR SHORT TERM
FORECASTS...STATEMENTS...OR POSSIBLE WARNINGS ISSUED BY YOUR
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN KEY WEST.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE PRIMARY
THUNDERSTORM HAZARDS WILL BE LIGHTNING STRIKES AND LOCALLY GUSTY
WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT STRONG WINDS.

APA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1255 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008

FLZ076>078-191800-
MONROE LOWER KEYS-MONROE MIDDLE KEYS-MONROE UPPER KEYS-
1255 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008

...INTERMITTENT SHOWERS WITH STRONG WINDS WILL IMPACT THE KEYS...

AT 1250 PM...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED BROKEN BANDS OF SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM FAY MOVING INTERMITTENTLY ACROSS THE
KEYS COASTAL WATERS. INTERMITTENT SHOWERS WILL CROSS THE KEYS ISLAND
CHAIN FROM TIME TO TIME TO PRODUCE PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...
AND GUSTY WINDS OF 35 TO 40 MPH.

MOTORISTS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION DUE TO STRONG CROSSWINDS...AND POOR
VISIBILITY IN HEAVY RAIN.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNING ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN KEY WEST.

AL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
200 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008

FLZ076-077-191900-
MONROE MIDDLE KEYS-MONROE UPPER KEYS-
200 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008

...INTERMITTENT SHOWERS WITH STRONG WINDS WILL IMPACT THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS...

AT 155 PM...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED BROKEN BANDS OF SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM FAY MOVING ACROSS THE KEYS COASTAL
WATERS. INTERMITTENT SHOWERS WILL CROSS THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS
FROM TIME TO TIME TO PRODUCE PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...AND
GUSTY WINDS OF 35 TO 40 MPH.

MOTORISTS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION DUE TO STRONG CROSSWINDS...AND POOR
VISIBILITY IN HEAVY RAIN.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNING ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN KEY WEST.

AL