Small Craft Advisory 173, NWS JSJ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
334 PM AST WED SEP 24 2008

.DISCUSSION...TROPICAL LOW ELONGATED SSW TO NNE ACROSS HISPANIOLA
AND ADJACENT WATERS HAS NOT MOVED MUCH TODAY...ALLOWING ANOTHER
CONVERGENCE BAND TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE AND MOVE NE...
AND INTO W PR THIS AFTERNOON. HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BAND
IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE SW AND W HALF OF THE ISLAND INTO THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS...WITH OVERCAST SKIES AND LIGHT TO MODERATE
STRATOFORM PRECIP LIKELY TO SPREAD NE AND ACROSS MOST OF THE REST
OF PUERTO RICO...BUT DO NOT EXPECT IT TO REACH THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS. ONE TO TWO INCH RAIN ACCUMULATIONS WITH ISOLATED AREAS OF
3 INCHES ARE OUR BEST GUESSTIMATE ON RAINFALL THIS EVENING. THAT
IS UNLESS TRAINING OF ECHOS OVER THE SAME AREAS OCCURS...WHICH
WOULD PUSH THESE ESTIMATES AOA 4 INCHES. SELY LLVL FLOW OUT AHEAD
OF THIS BAND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO PROVIDE MODERATE RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS SW AND S CENTRAL PR OVERNIGHT...WITH ISOLATED HEAVY
RAIN POSSIBLE.

THIS PESKY TROPICAL LOW IS STILL NOT LIFTING OUT AS FAST AS
GUIDANCE HAS INDICATED PAST SEVERAL DAYS...BUT IS SHOWING SIGNS OF
BEGINNING THIS LONG AWAITED N TO NNE MOTION. I WOULD EXPECT THAT
MOISTURE TRAILING THIS SYSTEM AS IT LIFTS OUT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE MONA PASSAGE AND W/SW SECTIONS OF PR THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE A GRADUAL DECREASE IN DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE
ENSUES ACROSS THE AREA. LLVL WIND FLOW IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
TOMORROW AS THIS LOW LIFTS OUT...AND THIS COMBINED WITH AMPLE
MORNING SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW FOR A SEA BREEZE ALONG THE N AND NW
COASTS...AND DIURNAL SHOWERS AND TSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE IN THE LOW
AND MID LEVELS IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO E/NE CARIB BEHIND THIS ON
FRIDAY...WITH LLVL EASTERLIES RETURNING TO THE REGION BY FRIDAY
NIGHT OR SATURDAY...AND LASTING INTO AT LEAST MID NEXT WEEK. THIS
WILL BRING A RETURN TO MORE NORMAL WEATHER PATTERNS OBVIOUSLY.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ACROSS TJMZ AND TJBQ
THROUGH AT LEAST 22Z...EVENTUALLY SPREADING ACROSS TJPS BETWEEN
20-24Z THIS EVENING. REDUCED VISIBILITIES TO 1 SM...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...CEILINGS TO 1500 FT AND WIND GUSTS TO 30 KTS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS. IMPROVING CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS THESE TAF SITES AFTER 00Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT THROUGH AT
LEAST 16Z TOMORROW.

&&

.MARINE...STRONG S TO SE FLOW PERSISTED IN THE MONA AND OFFSHORE
NW ATLC WATERS THIS MORNING AHEAD OF LARGE SQUALL LINE MOVING
ACROSS W PR ATTM. THIS HOWEVER HAS SHIFTED TO SSW TO W ACROSS MUCH
OF THIS AREA...AND THEN WILL LIKELY REVERT TO S TO SSW OVERNIGHT
AFTER SQUALL DIES OFF AND EXITS THAT AREA. SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR THOSE WATERS THROUGH MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE...A GRADUAL BACKING
OF LLVL FLOW TO ELY BY THE WEEKEND...AND SEAS DROPPING THROUGH
FRIDAY...THEN BECOMING DOMINATED BY E TO NE WIND WAVES THROUGH
MONDAY. A BROAD AND DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DROP
INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC FROM HIGHER LATITUDES THIS WEEKEND AND WILL
GENERATE LONG PERIOD SWELL FOR THE LOCAL AREA...AFFECTING THE
REGIONAL WATERS MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...WITH STRONG VERY LONG
PERIOD NE SWELL ARRIVING TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY. HIGH SURF
ADVISORIES MAY LIKELY BE REQUIRED BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  75  90  76  90 /  20  50  40  50
STT  76  87  77  87 /  50  40  40  50

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM AST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CENTRAL
     INTERIOR-EASTERN INTERIOR-MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-NORTH
     CENTRAL-NORTHEAST-NORTHWEST-PONCE AND VICINITY-SAN JUAN AND
     VICINITY-SOUTHEAST-SOUTHWEST-WESTERN INTERIOR.

VI...NONE.
&&

04/70/

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
636 AM AST WED SEP 24 2008

AMZ710>750-PRZ001>013-251045-
SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-NORTHEAST-SOUTHEAST-EASTERN INTERIOR-
NORTH CENTRAL-CENTRAL INTERIOR-PONCE AND VICINITY-NORTHWEST-
WESTERN INTERIOR-MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-SOUTHWEST-CULEBRA-VIEQUES-
THE NEARSHORE AND OFF SHORE ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS-
636 AM AST WED SEP 24 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY OVER
HISPANIOLA...WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING THIS AFTERNOON TO
PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY NORTH OF THE
CORDILLERA CENTRAL. EXIST THE POSSIBILITY OF LANDSLIDES IN AREAS
OF STEEP TERRAIN. IN ADDITION...ROUGH MARINE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL COASTAL WATERS AT LEAST THROUGH TONIGHT. A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL PUERTO RICO THROUGH AT
LEAST 8 AM TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

DUE TO VERY SATURATED SOILS...ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO FLOODING ACROSS PUERTO RICO...WITH LANDSLIDES POSSIBLE IN
AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER REPORTS OF FLOODING AND RAINFALL TOTALS APPRECIATED TODAY.

AMZ720-730-VIZ001-002-251045-
ST. THOMAS ST. JOHN ADJACENT ISLANDS-ST CROIX-
NEARSHORE ATLANTIC AND ADJACENT CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS-
636 AM AST WED SEP 24 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND
THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY..HOWEVER NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THIS AREA
DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS. ROUGH MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE LOCAL COASTAL WATERS TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER REPORTS OF FLOODING AND RAINFALL TOTALS APPRECIATED TODAY.

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