High Surf Advisory 13, NWS JSJ

000 
WHCA42 TJSJ 060202
CFWSJU

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1002 PM AST FRI SEP 5 2008

...NORTHEAST SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH IKE HAVE DIMINISHED
   CONSIDERABLY ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS...

PRZ001-002-005-008-012-013-VIZ001-002-060315-
/O.CAN.TJSJ.SU.Y.0013.000000T0000Z-080906T2000Z/
SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-NORTHEAST-NORTH CENTRAL-NORTHWEST-CULEBRA-
VIEQUES-ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS-ST CROIX-
1002 PM AST FRI SEP 5 2008

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS CANCELED...

AT 9 PM...BUOY 41043 LOCATED SOME 185 MILES NORTH OF ST
THOMAS...AND CURRENTLY ABOUT 125 MILES TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER
OF IKE... WAS MEASURING ONLY 3 FOOT SWELLS EMANATING FROM
HURRICANE IKE. SWELLS FROM IKE ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN
OVERNIGHT AT THE BUOY...AND LATER SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. HOWEVER...THESE SWELLS ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO PRODUCE HIGH SURF DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS...AND THE HIGH SURF
ADVISORY HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

$$

SS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1149 PM AST THU SEP 4 2008

.UPDATE...ACTIVE WEATHER OCCURRED ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS DURING
THE EVENING HOURS...AS BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVED
NORTH NORTHEAST ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...CULEBRA AND
VIEQUES...THE SOUTH...EAST AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO
AND THE COASTAL WATERS. INHERITED SHORT TERM GRIDS AND ZFP HAD A
GOOD HANDLE ON THE EXPECTED CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...BUT SENT AN
UPDATE TO BOTH TO ALTER WEATHER...SKY COVER...POPS AND WINDS IN
SEVERAL ZONES. FOR THE COASTAL WATERS...MADE A COUPLE OF SEMANTIC
ALTERATIONS TO THE PREVIOUS CWF...OTHERWISE NO CHANGES. THERE IS A
PRECAUTIONARY STATEMENT FOR THE ATLANTIC OFF SHORE WATERS AND FOR
ALL OF THE LOCAL CARIBBEAN WATERS OVERNIGHT. AVIATION-WISE...
GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND AT
MOST TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...MVFR AND POSSIBLY EVEN BRIEF
IFR CONDITIONS...BRIEF STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS ARE EXPECTED IN BANDS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS./ BCS

REMAINDER BELOW UNCHANGED FROM THE DAY SHIFT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM AST THU SEP 4 2008/

DISCUSSION...DRIER MORE STABLE CONDITIONS HAVE SPREAD ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY IN THE WAKE OF YESTERDAYS ACTIVE WEATHER. ALTHOUGH
SUFFICIENT LLVL MOISTURE WAS PRESENT FOR SCATTERED DIURNAL CNVTN
ACROSS PR...SLY WIND FLOW IS NOT TYPICALLY CONDUCIVE FOR SEA
BREEZE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE N COAST AT THE PRESENT 15-20 KT
STRENGTH. CONVERGENT BANDS AND CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND TSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO ACROSS THE SW CARIB WATERS AND MONA PASSAGE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...AND AFFECT W..SW..AND S SECTIONS OF PR
THIS EVENING...AND THEN LIKELY COASTAL PORTIONS OF SW AND W PR
OVERNIGHT. THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW LLVL MOISTURE SHIFTING WSW
INTO THE LOCAL AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH
SOME WEAK MID LEVEL TROFFING TO THE SW OF IKE. WITH LIGHT WIND
FLOW DURING THIS TIME...SCT CNVTN IS LIKELY THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH DRIER AIR FOR SUNDAY. IKE IS STILL FORECAST TO
PASS A SOMEWHAT COMFORTABLE DISTANCE NORTH FROM THE LOCAL ISLANDS
EARLY SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. AS WAS THE CASE WITH ISABEL
AND FELIX IN 2003...BOTH OF SIMILAR STRENGTH AND TRAJECTORIES...
LITTLE WEATHER WAS SEEN ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. SO DIRECT
WEATHER IMPACTS FROM IKE ARE NOT ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS...SUCH AS RAIN BANDS OR STRONG WINDS.

STLT IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SUGGESTS THAT IKE MAY BEGINNING ITS
FORECAST MORE WWD MOTION...WITH A WSW MOTION THEN EXPECTED TO BEGIN EARLY
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. AS IKE MOVES PAST 70W...RECENT MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT ITCZ MOISTURE...LLVL TROFFING...AND AN
ASSOCIATED TROPICAL WAVE TRAILING IKE MAY BE DRAWN NW ACROSS THE
NE CARIB AND INTO THE LOCAL AREA BY MONDAY MORNING. THIS COULD
INITIATE ANOTHER PERIOD OF WET TROPICAL WEATHER FOR THE LOCAL AREA.

AVIATION...AN AREA OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM HANNA
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING TEMPORARY MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN
PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...WITH
TEMPORARY MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN A PASSING +TSRA OR
+SHRA THROUGH 00Z. PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.
EXPECT DRIER AIR TO FILTER IN FROM THE EAST OVERNIGHT...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL THE TAF SITES THROUGH AT LEAST 16Z
THURSDAY.

MARINE...COASTAL SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED SIGNIFICANTLY THE PAST 12-18
HOURS WITH 17-210 KT SLY FLOW AND SEAS FALLING TO NEAR 6 FT ATTM IN
THE MONA PASSAGE. BUOY 41043 HAS BEEN SHOWING A COMBINATION OF
SWELL ENERGY THE PAST 24 HOURS...WITH VERY LONG PERIOD NNE SWELL
OF A FEW FEET...MODERATE PERIOD WLY SWELL FROM HANNA...AND SHORT
PERIOD BUILDING WAVES FROM THE SLY WIND FLOW. LONG PERIOD ENE
SWELL FROM IKE IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOCAL WATERS BY AROUND
SUNSET AND INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT...PEAKING AT 6 TO 7 FEET
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. DESPITE A CAT 4 HURRICANE APPROACHING THE
LOCAL AREA...THE RECENT LATITUDE AND TRAJECTORY OF IKE IS
PRODUCING LARGE SWELL ENERGY IN A TRAPPED FETCH SCENARIO AIMED AT
THE NE COAST OF THE U.S. AND NOT THE LOCAL AREA. SEAS ARE EXPECTED
TO DROP GRADUALLY AFTER IKE PASSES TO THE NORTH SUNDAY...WITH SOME
N AND NW SWELL ENERGY...BUT MUCH LESS THAN THE ENE PULSE. MODERATE
BREAKING WAVES OF 6-8 FEET WILL BE SEEN ALONG THE N COASTS OF PR
AND ST CROIX LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AND EVEN SMALLER ACROSS
THE ATLC COASTS OF THE NRN USVI DUE TO BLOCKAGE OF SWELL ENERGY BY
THE SHELF WATERS OF THE BVI. THIS WOULD YIELD MINOR BEACH EROSION.
THUS THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A SIGNIFICANT MARINE EVENT FOR THE
LOCAL AREA EITHER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  80  90  79  89 /  40  40  50  50
STT  79  88  79  88 /  50  40  50  50

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
522 AM AST FRI SEP 5 2008

AMZ710>750-PRZ001>013-060930-
SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-NORTHEAST-SOUTHEAST-EASTERN INTERIOR-
NORTH CENTRAL-CENTRAL INTERIOR-PONCE AND VICINITY-NORTHWEST-
WESTERN INTERIOR-MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-SOUTHWEST-CULEBRA-VIEQUES-
THE NEARSHORE AND OFF SHORE ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS-
522 AM AST FRI SEP 5 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

AMZ720-730-VIZ001-002-060930-
ST. THOMAS ST. JOHN ADJACENT ISLANDS-ST CROIX-
NEARSHORE ATLANTIC AND ADJACENT CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS-
522 AM AST FRI SEP 5 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND
THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.