High Surf Advisory 10, NWS JSJ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
351 PM AST MON APR 28 2008

.SYNOPSIS...A 1022 MB HIGH ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
SHIFT EAST SOUTHEASTWARD AND WEAKEN BY WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE
WILL CREATE A MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGIONAL
WATERS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPED OVER THE WESTERN REGIONS OF PUERTO RICO EARLIER THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT IN THE LAST 2 HOURS THESE STARTED TO DRIFT NORTH
AND NORTHEAST AFFECTING THE NORTHCENTRAL AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO. THE WFO NEXRAD IS REPORTING RAINFALL ESTIMATE OF 3
TO 5 INCHES AN HOUR OVER THE SOME AREAS...MAINLY OVER THE
MUNICIPALITIES OF CIALES NORTH TO BARCELONETA. MOST OF THESE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DECREASE ON INTENSITY AND COVERAGE
AT AROUND SUNSET. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE OVER THE
LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND HOLD ON THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

MORE STABLE WEATHER PREVAILED PUERTO RICO BUT ENOUGH ENERGY AND
HUMIDITY INTERACTED THIS AFTERNOON GENERATING A VERY ACTIVE
WEATHER. A SIMILAR SCENARIO IS EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...LLVL FLOW HAS INCREASED FROM THE E TO BETWEEN 15 AND 20
KTS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH VERY LIGHT WINDS BETWEEN 6-12
KFT...RESULTING IN A SLOW STORM MOVEMENT TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST.
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE INTERIOR OF PR
WILL DIMINISH AS THE SUN SETS...WITH CONTINUING BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND NW PORTIONS THE
ISLAND...ALONG WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS...THROUGH 00Z. VFR
CONDITIONS AND DECREASING SFC WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL THE
LOCAL TAF SITES OVERNIGHT./SR

&&

.MARINE...A NORTHERN SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL
ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT...AND WILL RESULT IN INCREASING SEAS
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN PASSAGES THROUGH MID WEEK.
DANGEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN MOVE OVER THE ATLANTIC
WATERS TONIGHT THEREFORE MARINERS SHOULD BE IN THE LOOKOUT OF
THESE STORMS. SCA IS IN EFFECT FOR THE OFF SHORE ATLANTIC WATERS
DUE TO SWELLS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  73  84  73  84 /  40  40  40  40
STT  73  80  73  80 /  20  30  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
&&

04/10/

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
619 AM AST MON APR 28 2008

AMZ710>750-PRZ001>013-291030-
SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-NORTHEAST-SOUTHEAST-EASTERN INTERIOR-
NORTH CENTRAL-CENTRAL INTERIOR-PONCE AND VICINITY-NORTHWEST-
WESTERN INTERIOR-MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-SOUTHWEST-CULEBRA-VIEQUES-
THE NEARSHORE AND OFF SHORE ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS-
619 AM AST MON APR 28 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS HAVE STABILIZED SOMEWHAT EARLY THIS MORNING...
AND THERE IS LESS MOISTURE AVAILABLE THAN YESTERDAY. HOWEVER...
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE EASTERLY LOW LEVEL
WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH THE HEATING OF THE DAY TO CREATE TYPICAL SCATTERED
TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WEST OF THE ISLAND. THESE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS TO AFFECT THE NORTHWEST AND
NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE ISLAND...INCLUDING THE SAN JUAN METRO AREA.
HEAVY RAINFALL IS AGAIN POSSIBLE AND SHOULD LEAD TO URBAN AND
SMALL STREAM FLOODING. LOCAL SOILS ARE AT OR NEAR SATURATED ACROSS
LARGE PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND...AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE
POSSIBILITY FOR MUDSLIDES. ALSO...MORE SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE RECENT RAINS.

MODERATE SIZED LONG PERIOD SWELLS HAVE BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE
LOCAL COASTAL WATERS FROM THE NORTH NORTHEAST THIS MORNING AND
WILL INCREASE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THESE SWELLS WILL PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT BREAKING WAVES ALONG THE LOCAL REEFS...SHOALS...AND
BEACHES EXPOSED TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST...AND IN TURN GENERATE
RIP CURRENTS WITHIN THE SURF ZONE. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY MAY BE
REQUIRED TONIGHT OR TUESDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
FOR THE OFF SHORE ATLANTIC.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

MORE TYPICAL WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. SIGNIFICANT BREAKING
WAVES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL REEFS...SHOALS...AND BEACHES
EXPOSED TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST...AND IN TURN GENERATE RIP
CURRENTS WITHIN THE SURF ZONE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED AGAIN TODAY.

AMZ720-730-VIZ001-002-291030-
ST. THOMAS ST. JOHN ADJACENT ISLANDS-ST CROIX-
NEARSHORE ATLANTIC AND ADJACENT CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS-
619 AM AST MON APR 28 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND
THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS HAVE STABILIZED SOMEWHAT EARLY THIS MORNING...
AND THERE IS LESS MOISTURE AVAILABLE THAN YESTERDAY. HOWEVER...
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE EASTERLY LOW LEVEL
WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH THE HEATING OF THE DAY TO CREATE TYPICAL
SCATTERED LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON SHOWERS IN RAINBANDS ACROSS
WEST SECTIONS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS. LOCAL SOILS ARE AT OR NEAR
SATURATED ACROSS NORTH AND NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF ST CROIX...AND
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE POSSIBILITY FOR MUDSLIDES...AS WELL AS
URBAN AND STREAM FLOODING.

MODERATE SIZED LONG PERIOD SWELLS HAVE BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE
LOCAL COASTAL WATERS FROM THE NORTH NORTHEAST THIS MORNING AND
WILL INCREASE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THESE SWELLS WILL PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT BREAKING WAVES ALONG THE LOCAL REEFS...SHOALS...AND
BEACHES EXPOSED TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST...AND IN TURN GENERATE
RIP CURRENTS WITHIN THE SURF ZONE. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY MAY BE
REQUIRED TONIGHT OR TUESDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
FOR THE OFF SHORE ATLANTIC.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

MORE TYPICAL WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. SIGNIFICANT BREAKING
WAVES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL REEFS...SHOALS...AND BEACHES
EXPOSED TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST...AND IN TURN GENERATE RIP
CURRENTS WITHIN THE SURF ZONE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TODAY.