Flash Flood Watch 7, NWS JSJ

000 
WGCA62 TJSJ 061900
FFASJU

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
300 PM AST SAT SEP 6 2008

PRZ002>004-007-062000-
/O.CAN.TJSJ.FF.A.0007.000000T0000Z-080906T2000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
NORTHEAST-SOUTHEAST-EASTERN INTERIOR-PONCE AND VICINITY-
INCLUDING THE MUNICIPALITIES AND/OR ISLANDS OF...FAJARDO...HUMACAO...
GUAYAMA...ARROYO...YABUCOA...SALINAS...COCO...CAGUAS...PONCE
300 PM AST SAT SEP 6 2008

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 4 PM AST...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR EAST AND SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRED AT 4 PM AST. LATEST U.S.G.S.
WATER LEVEL SENSORS AS WELL AS LOCAL OBSERVATIONS AND REPORTS
OBTAINED...INDICATED THAT THE RIVER LEVELS ACROSS THESE AREAS
HAVE EITHER RETURNED TO NORMAL...OR A NEARING NORMAL LEVELS.
ALTHOUGH SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THESE AREA
DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AND SOILS REMAIN SATURATED...NO 
SIGNIFICANT OR WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME. THEREFORE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE
AT 4 PM AST.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
651 AM AST SAT SEP 6 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
HURRICANE IKE IS MOVING TOWARDS THE WEST SOUTHWEST...WITH EYE NEARLY
300 MILES DUE NORTH OF AGUADILLA PUERTO RICO. RAIN BANDS ON
IKES SOUTHERN PERIPHERY WILL PASS OVER THE AREA DURING THE
DAY...AND BRING A THREAT OF HEAVY RAINS TO THE ENTIRE ISLAND...ESPECIALLY
NORTHWESTERN AND WESTERN PR. AS IKE CONTINUES WESTWARD ON
SUNDAY...DRIER AIR IN ITS WAKE SHOULD FILTER INTO THE AREA FOR
FOR A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE TROPICAL MOISTURE. AN ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE
CURRENTLY NEARING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA ON
MONDAY...INCREASING THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINS AGAIN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM TODAY WILL BE WHERE THE RAIN BANDS WILL SETUP
AROUND THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF IKE. A BAND TO THE NW OF PUERTO
RICO IS BEGINNING TO SHOW ON RADAR IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING...AS
ANOTHER BAND OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS WEAKENS...SENDING OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES TOWARDS MAINLAND PR...INITIATING NEW CELLS. AS IKE
MOVES WEST DURING THE DAY...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE DRAWING INTO
THE HURRICANE WILL SETUP OVER PR THIS AFTERNOON...PROVIDING A
LARGE SCALE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINS. UPPED POPS AND WEATHER OVER THE
ENTIRE AREA...ESPECIALLY W/NWRN PR AND THE SURROUNDING ALTC
WATERS/MONA PASSAGE. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD LAST WELL INTO THE
EVENING...AS LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST AND IKE
CONTINUES AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA.

DRIER AIR BEHIND IKE IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE REGION
SUNDAY...LIMITING CHANCES OF RAIN UNTIL OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. BUT THIS WILL DEPEND ON HOW BANDING FEATURES OF IKE TURN
OUT. EXPECT TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY NEARING THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD
ISLANDS...TO WORK NORTHWEST AND TOWARDS THE AREA...BRINGING
ANOTHER POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN EVENT FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...BANDS OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE IKE WILL
GENERATE MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL PUERTO RICO AND USVI
TERMINALS....WITH TEMPORARY MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN A
PASSING +TSRA OR +SHRA THROUGH 04Z. PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

&&

.MARINE...
SWELL ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH IKE IS DIMINISHING OVER THE LOCAL
WATERS THIS MORNING. EXPECT NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY SWELLS 5 FEET
OR LESS OVER THE ATLC WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  89  78  89  78 /  40  40  30  20
STT  88  79  88  79 /  40  30  30  50

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
&&

10/93/

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
627 AM AST SAT SEP 6 2008

AMZ710>750-PRZ001>013-071030-
SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-NORTHEAST-SOUTHEAST-EASTERN INTERIOR-
NORTH CENTRAL-CENTRAL INTERIOR-PONCE AND VICINITY-NORTHWEST-
WESTERN INTERIOR-MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-SOUTHWEST-CULEBRA-VIEQUES-
THE NEARSHORE AND OFF SHORE ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS-
627 AM AST SAT SEP 6 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALIGNED ALONG THE SOUTHERN PART
OF THE SYSTEM WILL TRAVEL SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST AND AFFECT THE LOCAL
AREA. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS
AND INLAND FLOODING AS SOME OF THESE BANDS ENTER THE LOCAL ISLANDS
FROM THE NORTH. CONSIDERING THAT LOCAL SOIL CONDITIONS REMAIN
SATURATED FROM RAINFALL OF THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...ANY ADDITIONAL
RAIN WILL ALLOW FOR A QUICK RESPONSE ON RIVERS...AND STREAMS AND
LAN SLIDES TO OCCUR.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
AN ASSOCIATED TROPICAL WAVE TRAILING IKE MAY BE DRAWN NW ACROSS
THE NE CARIB AND INTO THE LOCAL AREA BY MONDAY. THIS COULD
INITIATE ANOTHER PERIOD OF WET TROPICAL WEATHER FOR THE LOCAL
AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER REPORTS APPRECIATED TODAY.

AMZ720-730-VIZ001-002-071030-
ST. THOMAS ST. JOHN ADJACENT ISLANDS-ST CROIX-
NEARSHORE ATLANTIC AND ADJACENT CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS-
627 AM AST SAT SEP 6 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND
THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALIGNED ALONG THE SOUTHERN PART
OF THE SYSTEM WILL TRAVEL SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST AND AFFECT THE LOCAL
AREA. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS.
CONSIDERING THAT LOCAL SOIL CONDITIONS REMAIN SATURATED FROM
RAINFALL OF THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...ANY ADDITIONAL RAIN WILL ALLOW
FOR A QUICK RESPONSE ON STREAMS AND GUTS...AND LAN SLIDES TO OCCUR.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
AN ASSOCIATED TROPICAL WAVE TRAILING IKE MAY BE DRAWN NW ACROSS THE
NE CARIB AND INTO THE LOCAL AREA BY MONDAY. THIS COULD INITIATE ANOTHER
PERIOD OF WET TROPICAL WEATHER FOR THE LOCAL AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER REPORTS APPRECIATED TODAY.