Snow Advisory 3, NWS Jackson, KY

Bath County, KY, Bell County, KY, Breathitt County, KY, Clay County, KY, Elliott County, KY, Estill County, KY, Fleming County, KY, Floyd County, KY, Jackson County, KY, Johnson County, KY, Knott County, KY, Knox County, KY, Laurel County, KY, Lee County, KY, Leslie County, KY, Magoffin County, KY, Martin County, KY, McCreary County, KY, Menifee County, KY, Montgomery County, KY, Morgan County, KY, Owsley County, KY, Perry County, KY, Pike County, KY, Powell County, KY, Pulaski County, KY, Rockcastle County, KY, Rowan County, KY, Wayne County, KY, Whitley County, KY, Wolfe County, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
343 PM EST MON FEB 25 2008

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...UPDATED A FAIRLY STRONG
FRONTAL COMPLEX WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.
THIS EVENING...A WARM FRONT WILL BE MOVING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS
THE AREA FROM AROUND 7 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL THEN PUT EASTERN
KENTUCKY IN THE WARM SECTOR OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE MODELS
HAVE CONSISTENTLY BEEN PUTTING SHOWERS IN THIS WARM SECTOR AND THE
MOS POPS HAVE ALL BEEN VERY HIGH. THE ACTUAL FRONT NOW LOOKS TO BE
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA FROM 1 TO 5 PM TOMORROW. THERE WILL BE A
STRONG DROP OFF IN TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT AND SUFFICIENT
LIFT...DUE TO A COMBINATION OF UPSLOPE AND THE UPPER TROUGH. WITH
THESE TWO FACTORS IN PLAY...DECIDED TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WARNING
FOR HARLAN AND LETCHER COUNTIES. ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2500 FEET WILL SEE
UP TO 4 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW WHILE THE MAIN POPULATION AREAS WILL ONLY
SEE 2 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW. PUT OUT A SNOW ADVISORY FOR THE REST OF
THE AREA. A TOTAL OF 2 TO 3 INCHES EXPECTED IN THE COUNTIES BORDERING
HARLAN AND LETCHER AND 1 TO TWO INCHES EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE
AREA. THE SNOW SEE 2 TO COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA
TONIGHT. THESE SNOW TOTALS ARE FOR THE PERIOD FROM TUESDAY EVENING TO
WEDNESDAY EVENING. I TOOK THE THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR
TUESDAY MORNING...AS THE INSTABILITY WAS INSUFFICIENT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. THE MODELS WERE ALSO SHOWING THE UPPER LIFT
AND THE OMEGA BEING OUT OF PHASE. FOR TEMP...GENERALLY WENT COLDER
THAN MOS DUE TO THE SNOW.

.LONG TERM.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...UPDATED
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 84HR...DY4...THURSDAY.
THEREAFTER...MODELS DIVERGE...ESPECIALLY FOR SYSTEM WHICH IS TO
AFFECT OUR AREA AT THE VERY END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

EXITING WINTER WEATHER STORM SYSTEM WILL BE WINDING DOWN EARLY IN
THE PERIOD...BUT NOT BEFORE UNLOADING SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW ACROSS
MUCH OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF AND END LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

NEXT SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM TAKES AIM AT EASTERN KENTUCKY FRIDAY.
MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES IN THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN. IN PARTICULAR...THE ECMWF IS A BIT STRONGER WITH INITIAL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT OVER THE
MIDWEST THURSDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...DECIDED TO INTRODUCED POPS
BACK INTO THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT FOR THIS FEATURE. WARM
FRONT PASSES TO OUR NORTH DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...ULTIMATELY LEAVING EASTERN KENTUCKY IN THE WARM SECTOR.
WENT WITH RISING TEMPS THROUGH EARLY MORNING FRIDAY AFTER A MIDNIGHT
LOW. THIS BEING SAID...THE TIMING OF THE ONSET OF PRECIP MAY
COINCIDE WITH COLDER AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE CWA...LEADING TO THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME WINTRY WEATHER AT THE START. FOR NOW WENT WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW...BUT MAY CHANGE PRECIP TYPE TO THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IF COLDER AIR IS NOT SCOURED
OUT OF OUR VALLEYS QUICK ENOUGH. EITHER WAY...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN
THE WAY OF PROBLEMS AT THIS TIME AS TEMPS RISE RAPIDLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT...BEFORE THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION HITS THE AREA. SO PRECIP
SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF ALL RAIN BY OR BEFORE SUNRISE. INCREASED
POPS FOR FRIDAY PROPER TO HIGH CHANCE WITH BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT...
AND GOOD CONSISTENCY IN MODEL SOLUTIONS.

FINAL STORM SYSTEM OF CONCERN TAKES AIM AT EASTERN KENTUCKY AT THE
VERY END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. ECMWF WAS MUCH SLOWER WITH OVERALL
EVOLUTION AND TIMING OF THE SYSTEM AS WHEN COMPARED TO THE
OPERATIONAL GFS. THE GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS APPEARED TO BE A
GOOD COMPROMISE...AND A QUICK LOOK AT THE ECMWF SHOWED IT TRENDING
STRONGLY TOWARDS THIS COMPROMISE. THEREFORE WENT WITH A SLOWER
TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT...WHICH WITH CURRENT THINKING WOULD NOT
REACH EASTERN KENTUCKY UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY....JUST BEYOND
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. DID INCLUDE A SLIGHT POP FOR MONDAY
HOWEVER AS PART OF THE COMPROMISE IN SOLUTIONS. IF THERE ARE NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES...EXPECT POPS TO INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...WHICH WOULD BE PICKED UP ON TOMORROWS FORECAST CYCLE.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z TO 18Z/

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BE SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING FROM THE PREVIOUS SYSTEMS
HAVE KEPT IFR CIGS OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS MORNING. IMPROVEMENT
IN CIGS TO VFR WILL BE OCCURRING FROM 18-20Z AND SHOULD BE STARTING
IN THE SOUTH AND THEN WORKING ITS WAY NORTH. ONCE THE LOWER CLOUDS
MOVE OUT...MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL THEN BE MOVING IN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FROM
NEAR DAWN ON TUESDAY TO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA. CIGS WILL RETURN TO VFR WITH TEMPO LIFR AFTER 12Z.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SNOW ADVISORY FROM 8 PM TUESDAY TO 9 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ044-
050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>085-104-106>109-111-112-114-
119.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 8 PM TUESDAY TO 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
KYZ088-118.

SNOW ADVISORY FROM 8 PM TUESDAY TO 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR KYZ086-
087-110-113-115>117-120.

&&

SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...RAY
AVIATION...JJ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
553 AM EST MON FEB 25 2008

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-261200-
FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE-
JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN-
ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT-
OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE-
553 AM EST MON FEB 25 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM LATE TONIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS
THE COLD FRONT CROSSES EASTERN KENTUCKY. ADDITIONALLY...COLDER AIR
FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL CHANGE RAIN SHOWERS OVER TO SNOW
SHOWERS BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON ON TUESDAY. WHILE NO SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AS
TEMPERATURES FALL WELL BELOW FREEZING DURING THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS ON TUESDAY NIGHT...LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF
AROUND A COUPLE OF INCHES WILL OCCUR. SNOW SHOWERS WILL AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH TOTAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT RANGING
FROM 2 TO 3 INCHES...TO AS MUCH AS 5 INCHES ALONG THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN
PEAKS BORDERING VIRGINIA.

SNOW SHOWERS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE FROM FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. ONLY LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

GEOGERIAN