Severe Thunderstorm Warning 91, NWS Jackson, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
300 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2008

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...UPDATED

DIFFUSE COLD FRONT ALIGNED FROM WEST VIRGINIA THROUGH NORTHERN
KENTUCKY AND SOUTHERN INDIANA HAS BEEN SLOW TO MOVE TODAY. ISOLATED
STORMS CONTINUE TO FIRE WELL SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT IN A MORE WEAKLY
CAPPED ENVIRONMENT. SOME OF THESE HAVE PULSED HIGH ENOUGH TO LIKELY
PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. MEANWHILE BROKEN LINE OF
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT IS CURRENTLY ENCROACHING THE
INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR. BETTER CORES HAVE BEEN IN WEST VIRGINIA WHERE
BETTER MID-LEVEL COOL AIR AS WELL AS BETTER CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
COLD FRONT EXISTS.

EXPECT THIS FRONT TO CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY
THROUGH TONIGHT...PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH MAINLY THE EVENING HOURS. A FEW CORES MAY
APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS WITH HAIL IF THERE ARE ANY STORM INTERACTIONS
HOWEVER CURRENT HWO HANDLING THINGS FINE WITH GENERALLY SMALL HAIL
AND GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. DECREASING
CLOUDINESS LATER TONIGHT SHOULD ALLOW SOME FOG TO FORM ONCE AGAIN.
THIS WILL BE LOCALLY DENSE IN ANY LOCATIONS THAT HAVE SEEN OR WILL
SEE THUNDERSTORMS.

WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...KEEPING THINGS DRY AND WARM. MEANWHILE OUT
IN THE PLAINS...LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO CONGEAL AND DEEPEN AS
A TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT
COULD BRING SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO THE
AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...HOWEVER MODELS HAVE CONTINUED
TO ADVERTISE BETTER FORCING NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER SO WILL NOT RAMP
POPS UP ANY FURTHER FOR NOW.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BECOME MORE
SHEARED OUT...BUT LOOKS TO REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. MCS
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE PLENTIFUL IN THE OHIO VALLEY ONCE AGAIN...SO
AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR WILL BE THE MOST
SUSCEPTIBLE FOR ANY COLLATERAL DAMAGE FROM THESE. INSTABILITY AND
WIND PROFILES BECOME MORE SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE BY TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE WHERE THE
COMPLEXES WIND UP AS WELL AS ANY OTHER TRIGGERS...WILL NOT HIGHLIGHT
THIS THREAT IN THE HWO JUST YET. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...RIDGING ALOFT
WILL ENSUE AND SNUFF OUT ANY ISOLATED CONVECTION QUICKLY THROUGH THE
NIGHT.

.LONG TERM.../THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...UPDATED

RIDGING AND SUMMER-LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY DOMINATE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE A WEAKENING COLD
FRONT THAT WILL THREATEN THE AREA FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
DAY ON SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION.../12Z TO 12Z/

IFR TO MVFR FOG IN THE VALLEY LOCATIONS SHOULD QUICKLY IMPROVE AROUND
13Z OR 14Z...THOUGH WITH RH STILL RATHER HIGH SOME HZ MAY LINGER.
OTHERWISE...AN ILL DEFINED COLD FRONT IS OVER THE REGION AND IT WILL
COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TO
BRING SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA TODAY. HANDLED THIS WITH VFR CIGS WITH A CB
CLOUD GROUP AND VCSH...THOUGH LOCALLY BRIEF IFR OR LOWER IS POSSIBLE
UNDER ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...HAL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
439 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2008

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-021100-
FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE-
JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN-
ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT-
OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE-
439 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY THROUGH THIS EVENING. A FEW OF
THESE MAY CONTAIN SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. ADDITIONALLY...ANY
THUNDERSTORM WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY INSTANCES OF HAIL OR GUSTY
WINDS TONIGHT.

ABE/GEOGERIAN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
520 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2008

KYZ108-112-012200-
WOLFE-BREATHITT-
520 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2008

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM TO AFFECT WOLFE AND NORTHEASTERN BREATHITT
COUNTIES THROUGH 600 PM EDT SUNDAY EVENING...

AT 520 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED JUST NORTHEAST OF
CAMPTON...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 27 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR LANDSAW AROUND 525 PM EDT...LEXIE AROUND 530
PM EDT...UPPER GILMORE AROUND 535 PM EDT...ROSEFORK AROUND 540 PM
EDT...SHOCKEY AROUND 545 PM EDT.

RESIDENTS SHOULD EXPECT VERY HEAVY RAIN...WITH RAINFALL RATES BETWEEN
ONE AND TWO INCHES PER HOUR...GUSTY WINDS OF UP TO 40 MPH...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL IN THESE AREAS.

DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
THUNDERSTORM. TAKE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR
THUNDER THEN LIGHTNING IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE A HAZARD.

RAY

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