Severe Thunderstorm Warning 3, NWS Jackson, KY

000 
WWUS53 KJKL 102245
SVSJKL

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
545 PM EST THU JAN 10 2008

KYC199-231-102330-
/O.CON.KJKL.SV.W.0003.000000T0000Z-080110T2330Z/
PULASKI KY-WAYNE KY-
545 PM EST THU JAN 10 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 630 PM EST
FOR WAYNE AND PULASKI COUNTIES...

AT 540 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO 
INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY 
SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS 
WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM EUBANK TO CABELL TO 9 MILES 
SOUTHWEST OF SUNNYBROOK...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 13 MILES 
NORTH OF SOMERSET TO 8 MILES WEST OF MONTICELLO TO 7 MILES SOUTH OF 
ALBANY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  SUNNYBROOK...PULASKI COUNTY PARK...POWERSBURG AND NAOMI BY 550 PM
  EST...
  WOODSTOCK...TRIMBLE...STEUBENVILLE AND SLICKFORD BY 555 PM EST...
  SOMERSET PULASKI AIRPORT AND PARMLEYSVILLE BY 600 PM EST...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. IF A TORNADO
IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A STURDY
STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EST THURSDAY EVENING
FOR SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY.

TO REPORT TORNADOS...DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL OR FLOODING TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...CALL TOLL FREE AT...1...8 7 7...6 3 3...6
7 7 2...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 3662 8500 3670 8504 3678 8503 3686 8510
      3699 8487 3706 8493 3712 8493 3737 8456
      3716 8429 3701 8432 3696 8437 3686 8460
      3681 8460 3676 8468 3661 8478
TIME...MOT...LOC 2245Z 241DEG 48KT 3729 8458 3688 8492
          3663 8504

$$

WJM

000 
WWUS53 KJKL 102302
SVSJKL

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
602 PM EST THU JAN 10 2008

KYC199-231-102330-
/O.CON.KJKL.SV.W.0003.000000T0000Z-080110T2330Z/
PULASKI KY-WAYNE KY-
602 PM EST THU JAN 10 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 630 PM EST
FOR WAYNE AND PULASKI COUNTIES...

AT 559 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE 
EXTENDING FROM BANDY TO FRAZER TO BURFIELD...OR ALONG A LINE 
EXTENDING FROM 9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MOUNT VERNON TO 10 MILES 
SOUTHWEST OF SOMERSET TO 8 MILES SOUTH OF MONTICELLO...MOVING 
NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  TATEVILLE...RUTH...RITNER AND KIDDS CROSSING BY 610 PM EST...
  SLOANS VALLEY...GRADE...BENT AND ALPINE BY 615 PM EST...
  DYKES AND ALPINE BY 620 PM EST...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. IF A TORNADO
IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A STURDY
STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EST THURSDAY EVENING
FOR SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY.

TO REPORT TORNADOS...DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL OR FLOODING TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...CALL TOLL FREE AT...1...8 7 7...6 3 3...6
7 7 2...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 3662 8500 3670 8504 3678 8503 3686 8510
      3699 8487 3706 8493 3712 8493 3737 8456
      3716 8429 3701 8432 3696 8437 3686 8460
      3681 8460 3676 8468 3661 8478
TIME...MOT...LOC 2302Z 241DEG 48KT 3728 8441 3699 8467
          3674 8479

$$

WJM

000 
WWUS53 KJKL 102316
SVSJKL

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
615 PM EST THU JAN 10 2008

KYC199-231-102325-
/O.CAN.KJKL.SV.W.0003.000000T0000Z-080110T2330Z/
PULASKI KY-WAYNE KY-
615 PM EST THU JAN 10 2008

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR WAYNE AND PULASKI COUNTIES IS
CANCELLED...

THE STORMS THAT PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE AREA AND 
NO LONGER POSE A THREAT TO PULASKI AND WAYNE COUNTIES. SHOWERS AND A 
FEW THUNDERSTORMS WERE STILL MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. GUSTY WINDS 
AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE. 

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EST THURSDAY EVENING
FOR SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY.

TO REPORT TORNADOS...DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL OR FLOODING TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...CALL TOLL FREE AT...1...8 7 7...6 3 3...6
7 7 2...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 3662 8500 3670 8504 3678 8503 3686 8510
      3699 8487 3706 8493 3712 8493 3737 8456
      3716 8429 3701 8432 3696 8437 3686 8460
      3681 8460 3676 8468 3661 8478
TIME...MOT...LOC 2315Z 241DEG 48KT 3736 8421 3707 8448
          3682 8460

$$

WJM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
254 PM EST THU JAN 10 2008

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...UPDATED
INTERESTING SYNOPTIC SITUATION DEVELOPING. A WARM
FRONT/DISCONTINUITY HAS MOVED MOSTLY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AND
CURRENTLY...MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOW NORTH AND
WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE ACTIVE AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS IN
CENTRAL KENTUCKY ARE WELL OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THESE STORMS
SEEM TO COINCIDE WITH THE MOISTURE AXIS AND 850 JET CORE. THE TIME
CROSS SECTION USING THE 12 NAM WAS SHOWING TWO DISTINCT SURGES OF
OMEGA COMING ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THE 18Z RUN IS NOT AS CLEAR
WITH IT. THE FIRST SURGE WILL BE THE 850 JET AXIS AROUND 6-9 PM AND
THE SECOND WILL BE THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH NEAR MIDNIGHT. THERE ARE
TWO DIFFERENT SEVERE THREATS POTENTIALS WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE FIRST ONE
WITH THE 850 JET AXIS WILL BE A HAIL AND WIND THREAT THREAT FROM THE
ELEVATED CELLS SPINNING UP IN THE WARM SECTOR. THESE STORM ARE NEAR
THE 850 JET AXIS AND HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR MIXING DOWN THE HIGHER
MOMENTUM AIR. THE THREAT WITH THE FRONT WILL BE MOSTLY BE WIND. DUE
TO THE TIME OF DAY THESE STORMS ARE COMING INTO THE AREA...EXPECT
VERY FEW SEVERE TO OCCUR...HOWEVER THERE WILL BE MANY STORMS JUST
UNDER SEVERE CRITERIA. SO THESE STORMS ARE STILL POTENTIALLY
DANGEROUS. ONCE THE FRONT GOES THROUGH...SOME LOW CLOUDS WILL HANG
AROUND TILL FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WILL STAY CLOSE TO MOS FOR TEMPS.

.LONG TERM.../SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...UPDATED

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL DEAL WITH PRECIPITATION
TYPE AND AMOUNT CONCERNING TWO DIFFERENT SYSTEMS EARLY NEXT WEEK INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD AS WAVE AFTER WAVE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY AFFECTS
THE REGION. A BROAD SCALE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD WITH TWO PHASED SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE LARGER SCALE
SYSTEM. THERE IS SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE ECMWF/GFS ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THE PHASING...SO MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT FOR NOW...HOWEVER EXPECTING AN INCREASE IN POPS FOR THIS
TIME PERIOD WITH LATER FORECASTS. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE THE HARD
PART OF THE FORECAST AS TIMING OF RAIN/SNOW CHANGEOVER WILL BE
CRUCIAL. RIGHT NOW...WILL GO WITH ALL RAIN STARTING OUT. THEN RAIN WILL
MIX WITH SOME SNOW...BEFORE BECOMING ALL SNOW EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS
1000-850 MB THICKNESSES DROP BELOW 1305 M. EXPECT ALL SNOW THROUGH
MONDAY AS HIGH TEMPERATURE WILL OCCUR AT MIDNIGHT AND DROP THROUGH
THE DAY.

TUESDAY WILL BRING ANOTHER PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE
AREA. THICKNESSES REMAIN MARGINAL FOR SNOW...SO WILL STAY WITH RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWERS FOR NOW. 12Z GFS IS MUCH FASTER WITH THE PROGRESSION
OF THE SYSTEM THAN THE 00Z ECMWF. LEANED TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION
AS THE GFS HAS SLOWLY STARTED TO TREND TOWARD THE MORE CONSISTENT
ECMWF. AFTER TUESDAY...MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE APPROACH
OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. THE 12Z GFS BRINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE AREA
DRY UNTIL AFTER THE FORECAST PERIOD. WILL PUT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN
TO MATCH UP WITH OTHER OFFICES AND BLEND BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION.../12Z TO 12Z/

MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL MAKE A QUICK SURGE OVER THE
AREA TODAY. MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD MOST OF
EASTERN KENTUCKY IN THE MORNING...ALONG WITH SHOWERS. WIDESPREAD
VISIBILITY PROBLEMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED FOR ANY EXTENDED TIME DURING
THE DAY. HOWEVER...LOCALIZED IFR VISIBILITY CAN NOT BE RULED OUT AT
TIMES FROM THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION
DURING THE EVENING...BRINGING MORE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME
THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL ALSO PICK UP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH SOME GUSTS TOPPING 25 MPH. THERE IS ALSO A POTENTIAL
FOR SOME GUSTS CONSIDERABLY HIGHER IF PRECIP FALLING FROM HEAVY
SHOWERS OR STORMS CAN PULL DOWN MUCH STRONGER WINDS WHICH WILL BE
JUST OFF THE SURFACE.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...SCHOETTMER
AVIATION...JJ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
520 PM EST THU JAN 10 2008

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>085-104-106-108-111-114-
120130-
FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE-
JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-ELLIOTT-MORGAN-WOLFE-
LEE-OWSLEY-
520 PM EST THU JAN 10 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. THERE IS A REMOTE POSSIBILITY FOR A
TORNADO TO FORM. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGER SHOWERS AND ANY THUNDERSTORMS...CREATING THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME ISOLATED FLOODING PROBLEMS. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR LOW
WATER CROSSINGS AND OTHER AREAS PRONE TO MINOR FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND DAWN ON SUNDAY...THEN AGAIN
FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS DURING THIS PERIOD...IF ANY...SHOULD BE LIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY STRONG WINDS...OR DAMAGE FROM
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
JACKSON THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

KYZ086>088-107-109-110-112-113-115>120-120130-
KNOX-BELL-HARLAN-JOHNSON-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-BREATHITT-KNOTT-PERRY-CLAY-
LESLIE-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE-
520 PM EST THU JAN 10 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE SOME
WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THE STRONGER SHOWERS AND ANY THUNDERSTORMS...CREATING THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME ISOLATED FLOODING PROBLEMS. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR
LOW WATER CROSSINGS AND OTHER AREAS PRONE TO MINOR FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND DAWN ON SUNDAY...THEN AGAIN
FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS DURING THIS PERIOD...IF ANY...SHOULD BE LIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY STRONG WINDS...OR DAMAGE FROM
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
JACKSON THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

RAY/JJ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
255 PM EST THU JAN 10 2008

KYZ044-102045-
FLEMING-
300 PM EST THU JAN 10 2008

...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT NORTHWESTERN FLEMING
COUNTY THROUGH 345 PM EST THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

AT 255 PM EST...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR EWING...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUALLY MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA OVER
THE NEXT 45 MINUTES. LOCATIONS NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM NEPTON TO
COWAN CAN EXPECT HEAVY RAIN...WITH UP TO ONE INCH FALLING BETWEEN 3
AND 3:45 PM. THIS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AS WELL AS
FILLING UP DITCHES...POSSIBLY SPILLING ONTO ROADS IN PLACES.
ADDITIONALLY...GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH...OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES...AS WELL AS SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE.

GEOGERIAN