Severe Thunderstorm Warning 206, NWS Jackson, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
300 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2008

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...UPDATED

CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THERE HAVE BEEN
A FEW REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DEVELOPING
UPSTREAM ALSO HEADED THIS WAY...BUT EXPECT SEVERE THREAT TO REMAIN
MINIMAL. THE 12Z NAM...12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF ALL POINT TOWARDS
ANOTHER MCS DEVELOPING IN THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MOVING INTO THE
LOWER OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. THIS IDEA ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE 09Z SREF.
THE REMAINS OF THIS LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA ON THURSDAY. WHILE
CONVECTION CURRENTLY ONGOING IN THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE EXITING THE
AREA IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE MOVING INTO AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THIS IN MIND WILL
GO WITH LIKELY PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS EVENING...THEN DROP CHANCES
OFF OVERNIGHT THEN INCREASE CHANCES AGAIN LATE TONIGHT WITH APPROACH
OF THE NEXT MCS. WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS ON THURSDAY AREA WIDE. WITH
PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE TROF ON THURSDAY THE CHANCES FOR SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DECREASING BUT CHANCE WILL CONTINUE IN THE
SOUTHERN PART OF FORECAST AREA UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT. DRY AREA WIDE ON
FRIDAY. ANOTHER MCS LOOKS TO DEVELOP TO OUR NORTHWEST WITH THE GFS
POINTING TOWARDS THIS POSSIBLY AFFECTING NORTHEAST PART OF FORECAST AREA
FRIDAY NINTH INTO SATURDAY. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH
THIS WITH THE NAM POINTING TOWARDS THIS STAYING TO OUR NORTHEAST. AT
THIS TIME WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. MAV MOS
TEMPERATURES LOOK REASONABLE AND WILL NOT DEVIATE MUCH IN THIS AREA.

.LONG TERM.../SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...UPDATED

THE GFS ENSEMBLE...12Z GFS...NAEFS...AND 00Z ECMWF ARE POINTING
TOWARDS BACKING OFF ON THE HEAT SOMEWHAT FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH
THIS CONSENSUS AND HPC GUIDANCE WILL LOWER FORECAST HIGHS FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK SOMEWHAT BUT NOT AS LOW AS 00Z MEX MOS WOULD INDICATE. THE
MAIN CHANGE IN THE PATTERN IS FOR THE 5H HIGH TO BE CENTERED MORE TO
OUR WEST WITH US REMAINING ON THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z TO 18Z/

REMNANTS OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLY MORNING CONVECTION OVER THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY IS CURRENTLY SWEEPING THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY...
KICKING OFF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH AFTERNOON SFC
INSTABILITY. ATTM MOST ACTIVITY IS RESTRICTED TO AREAS EAST OF THE
INTERSTATE 75 CORRIDOR AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR. BUT
SOME REDEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE TO THE WEST AS THE AFTERNOON
PROGRESSES. SOME THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN REACHING SEVERE LIMITS WITH
DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN CONCERN. INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AT LOZ FOR THE START OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IN ORDER TO
ACCOUNT FOR THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THAT TERMINAL AREA.
WILL UPDATE OR AMEND AS NECESSARY FOR ANY ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS
THAT AFFECT AREA FORECAST TERMINALS. OTHERWISE...INCLUDED VCTS
REMARKS IN THE WEATHER GROUP. WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DROP INTO THE LIFR TO IFR CATEGORIES...IN ADDITION TO VERY
GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...SBH
LONG TERM...SBH
AVIATION...RAY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
356 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2008

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-311200-
FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE-
JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN-
ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT-
OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE-
356 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SOME OF THE
STORMS COULD BE STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS...TORRENTIAL RAINS AND
FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE
A THREAT IN AREAS THAT SEE REPEATED THUNDERSTORMS OR SLOW MOVING
THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY AGAIN ON THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER INTO THE
EVENING IN AREAS SOUTH OF THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY AND ROUTE 80
CORRIDOR. SOME OF THE STORMS ON THURSDAY COULD BE STRONG WITH GUSTY
WINDS...TORRENTIAL RAINS AND FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING. LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING WILL BE A THREAT IN AREAS THAT SEE REPEATED
THUNDERSTORMS OR SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS.

HOT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS
MOSTLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S. THESE TEMPERATURES...COMBINED WITH
HUMIDITY...WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDICES APPROACHING OR AT TIMES
REACHING 100 DEGREES. TAKE EXTRA PRECAUTIONS IF YOU PLAN ON ANY
OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY INSTANCES OF WIND DAMAGE OR
FLOODING FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY.

WJM/SBH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
404 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2008

KYZ079-080-084-085-302100-
PULASKI-LAUREL-WHITLEY-MCCREARY-
404 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2008

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM TO AFFECT CENTRAL PULASKI...SOUTHWESTERN
LAUREL...NORTHWESTERN WHITLEY AND EXTREME NORTHEASTERN MCCREARY
COUNTIES THROUGH 500 PM EDT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

AT 404 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR SCIENCE
HILL...MOVING EAST AT 17 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR FERGUSON AROUND 410 PM EDT...ELIHU AROUND 415
PM EDT...RUTH AROUND 420 PM EDT...GRADE AROUND 435 PM EDT AND DYKES
AROUND 440 PM EDT.

RESIDENTS SHOULD EXPECT TORRENTIAL RAIN...WITH RAINFALL RATE OF TWO
INCHES PER HOUR OR MORE...GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL IN THESE AREAS.

DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
THUNDERSTORM. TAKE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR
THUNDER THEN LIGHTNING IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE A HAZARD.

GREIF

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
413 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2008

KYZ084>087-302115-
WHITLEY-MCCREARY-KNOX-BELL-
413 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2008

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM TO AFFECT SOUTH CENTRAL KNOX AND WHITLEY AND
EAST CENTRAL MCCREARY AND EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN BELL COUNTIES THROUGH
515 PM EDT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

AT 413 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR DUCKRUN...
MOVING EAST AT 17 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR REDBIRD AROUND 420 PM EDT...JELLICO CREEK
AROUND 425 PM EDT...BON AROUND 430 PM EDT...WILLIAMSBURG AROUND 435
PM EDT...AND EMLYN AROUND 440 PM EDT.

RESIDENTS SHOULD EXPECT TORRENTIAL RAIN...WITH RAINFALL RATE OF TWO
INCHES PER HOUR OR MORE...GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND POSSIBLY SMALL HAIL IN THESE AREAS.

DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
THUNDERSTORM. TAKE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR
THUNDER THEN LIGHTNING IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE A HAZARD.

GREIF

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
420 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2008

KYZ068-069-079-080-302045-
ROCKCASTLE-PULASKI-LAUREL-JACKSON-
420 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2008

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM TO AFFECT SOUTH CENTRAL JACKSON AND
ROCKCASTLE AND NORTHEASTERN PULASKI AND NORTH CENTRAL LAUREL COUNTIES
THROUGH 445 PM EDT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

AT 420 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR BEE LICK...
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR BEE LICK AROUND 425 PM EDT...WILLAILLA AROUND
430 PM EDT...LEVEL GREEN AROUND 435 PM EDT...WELLHOPE AROUND 440 PM
EDT...HANSFORD AROUND 445 PM EDT...

RESIDENTS SHOULD EXPECT VERY HEAVY RAIN...WITH RAINFALL RATES OF UP
TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR...GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL IN THESE AREAS.

DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
THUNDERSTORM. TAKE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR
THUNDER THEN LIGHTNING IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE A HAZARD.

SCHOETTMER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
423 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0410 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 NE SOMERSET           37.10N 84.58W
07/30/2008                   PULASKI            KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN.

&&

RAY

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