Severe Thunderstorm Warning 170, NWS Jackson, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
309 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2008

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...UPDATED

NOT MUCH AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 OF THE
FORECAST. THE GFS...NAM12 AND NGM MODELS ALL MOVE SMALL AREAS OF QPF
ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY BETWEEN 0Z TONIGHT AND 12Z TOMORROW.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE ALREADY ONGOING. ACROSS CENTRAL
KENTUCKY ALONG AN AREA OF CONVERGENCE LEFT OVER FROM AN MCS THAT
FORMED OVER EASTERN IOWA AND SOUTHWESTERN WISCONSIN. BASED ON LATEST
RADAR TRENDS AND THE ENVIRONMENT THESE STORMS WILL BE MOVING INTO IN
EASTERN KENTUCKY...IT APPEARS THAT CONVECTION WILL BE ABLE TO PERSIST
THROUGH 3 OR 4Z TONIGHT. AFTER THAT THE SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD DIE
OFF RAPIDLY DUE TO LOSS OF HEATING. GENERAL THINKING IS THAT ANOTHER
MCS WILL FORM TONIGHT OVER EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHWESTERN ILLINOIS AND
BEGIN TO PUSH A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY SOUTHWARD
TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER. ENERGY AND CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
REMNANTS OF THIS MCS WILL AGAIN BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
THE FORECAST AREA...PARTICULARLY NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN
PARKWAY...WHERE THE BEST LIFT AND UPPER DYNAMICS WILL BE LOCATED.
WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL GO WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN NORTH OF THE
MOUNTAIN PARKWAY...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE
PARKWAY...WITH LITTLE IF ANY RAIN CHANCES SOUTH OF THE HAL ROGERS
PARKWAY AND THE HIGHWAY CORRIDOR. DECIDED TO GO WITH THE GFS NOTION
OF THE FRONT ONLY STUBBORNLY MAKING ITS WAY SOUTHWARD OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. ALL MODELS AGREE THAT THE FRONT WILL FINALLY MAKE A
DEFINITE SOUTHWARD PUSH AFTER 18Z TUESDAY. MODEL TIME HEIGHT CROSS
SECTIONS SUGGEST THAT THE FRONT WILL SLOWED DOWN ONCE AGAIN LATE IN
THE DAY ON TUESDAY...SPARKING MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG
IT AS THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY KICKS IN. THE BEST MOISTURE AND
RAIN CHANCES WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS IT DRIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS BOTH DAYS.

WENT CLOSER TO BUT A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN THE EXTREMELY WARM MAVMOS
FOR DAYTIME HIGHS ON MONDAY ACROSS THE BOARD...AS IT APPEARS THAT
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND SCATTERED CLOUDS WILL ALLOW THINGS TO WARM UP
QUITE A BIT. MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO SUPPORTIVE OF THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES...WITH 850HPA TEMPS IN THE LOWER 90S. WITH THE FRONT
MAKING ITS WAY...AND EVENTUALLY STALLING...ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
ON TUESDAY...WENT WITH COOLER TEMPS ACROSS THE BOARD...GOING A DEGREE
OR SO COOLER THAN THE MAVMOS NUMBERS...AS IT APPEARED THE METMOS WAS
TOO WARM. MADE NECESSARY ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY...WEATHER...AND QPF
GRIDS PER THE MODIFICATIONS MADE TO TIMING OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AND POP FORECAST. DEWPOINTS WERE ALSO ADJUSTED DOWNWARD TOWARD THE
MORE REASONABLE LOOKING MAVMOS NUMBERS FOR TOMORROW AND TUESDAY.
CURRENT TRENDS IN SURFACE OBS ALSO SUPPORT SLIGHTLY COOLER DEWPOINTS
THAN THE MORE EXTREME LOOKING METMOS NUMBERS...SO THE DOWN TREND IN
DEWS FOR TOMORROW AND TUESDAY SEEMED REASONABLE. A FEW SLIGHT TWEAKS
WERE MADE TO THE WIND FORECAST BASED ON CHANGES MADE TO TIMING OF
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

.LONG TERM.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...UPDATED

GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT CONTINUES WITH ADVERTISING NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND NEW ENGLAND AS REINFORCING NORTHERN
STREAM ENERGY ALLOWS FOR DEEPER CUTOFF LOWS TO DEVELOP ACROSS
EASTERN CANADA. A COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY EXITING OFF TO THE
SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY...WITH ENOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE TO FUEL SOME
ISOLATED CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY IN THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTROL FOR THURSDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST AND THEN LINGERS IN THE VICINITY OF
EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. TIMING IS ALWAYS
QUESTIONABLE THIS FAR OUT...SO HAVE LEFT SCATTERED POPS IN FROM
FRIDAY ONWARD WITH MORE OF A DIURNAL INFLUENCE. HPC TEMPERATURES
LOOKED REASONABLE...SO ONLY USED A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE AND
THEIR VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z TO 18Z/

WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
AROUND 23Z...BEFORE LOWERING VISBYS BECOME THE CONCERN ONCE AGAIN. FOR
THE TAF SITES...FOLLOWED A PERSISTENCE FORECAST BASED ON OBSERVATIONS
FROM LAST NIGHT. HZ WILL BECOME MVFR BY AROUND 05Z FOR LOZ AND SME BEFORE
TEMPORARILY DROPPING DOWN TO IFR BR BETWEEN 09 AND 12Z. FOR
JKL...HELD OFF THE MVFR HZ UNTIL 10Z. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED CONVECTION
WILL RE-FIRE TOMORROW AFTERNOON...HOWEVER IS LIKELY TO OCCUR AFTER
18Z...SO DID NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
430 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2008

KYZ068-079-080-202115-
ROCKCASTLE-PULASKI-LAUREL-
430 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2008

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM TO AFFECT SOUTHERN ROCKCASTLE...
NORTHEASTERN PULASKI...AND NORTHWESTERN LAUREL COUNTIES THROUGH 515
PM EDT SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

AT 430 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR IN JACKSON
SHOWED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM LOCATED NEAR HANSFORD...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 21 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR BLOSS AROUND 435 PM EDT...PONGO AROUND 440 PM
EDT...LUNER AROUND 445 PM EDT...DILLON AROUND 450 PM EDT...AND CAMP
WILDCAT AROUND 455 PM EDT.

RESIDENTS CAN EXPECT UP TO ONE HALF INCH OF RAIN...GUSTY WINDS OF 40
TO 50 MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL IN THESE AREAS.

DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
THUNDERSTORM. TAKE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR
THUNDER THEN LIGHTNING IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE A HAZARD.

WJM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
523 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2008

KYZ088-115-117-118-202215-
PERRY-LESLIE-LETCHER-HARLAN-
523 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2008

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM TO AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN PERRY...EAST CENTRAL
LESLIE...SOUTHWESTERN LETCHER AND NORTHEASTERN HARLAN COUNTIES
THROUGH 615 PM EDT SUNDAY EVENING...

AT 523 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR IN JACKSON
SHOWED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM LOCATED NEAR SMILAX...MOVING SOUTHEAST
AT 23 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR YEADDISS AROUND 535 PM EDT...BIG ROCK AROUND
540 PM EDT...SLEMP AROUND 545 PM EDT...BLUEFIELD AROUND 550 PM
EDT...AND DELPHIA AROUND 555 PM EDT.

RESIDENTS CAN EXPECT UP TO ONE HALF INCH OF RAIN...GUSTY WINDS OF 40
TO 50 MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL IN THESE AREAS.

DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
THUNDERSTORM. TAKE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR
THUNDER THEN LIGHTNING IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE A HAZARD.

WJM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
534 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2008

KYZ080-086-087-116-202230-
LAUREL-CLAY-KNOX-BELL-
534 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2008

...A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN
CLAY...SOUTHEASTERN LAUREL...KNOX AND NORTHEASTERN BELL COUNTIES
THROUGH 630 PM EDT SUNDAY EVENING...

AT 534 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR IN JACKSON
SHOWED A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED NEAR
LESBAS...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 26 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR TUTTLE AROUND 540 PM EDT...GIBBS AROUND 545
PM EDT...FLETCHER AROUND 550 PM EDT...FOUNT AROUND 555 PM EDT...AND
HINKLE AROUND 600 PM EDT.

RESIDENTS CAN EXPECT UP TO ONE HALF INCH OF RAIN...GUSTY WINDS OF 40
TO 50 MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL IN THESE AREAS.

DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
THUNDERSTORM. TAKE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR
THUNDER THEN LIGHTNING IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE A HAZARD.

WJM