Severe Thunderstorm Warning 164, NWS Jackson, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1100 AM EDT MON JUL 7 2008

.SHORT TERM.../THE REST OF TODAY/...UPDATED

14Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY WITH THE MAIN FEATURE BEING A MESO-HIGH DROPPING SOUTH INTO
NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY ASSOCIATED WITH THE MCS. ALL IS QUIET ON RADAR
ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY WHILE THE CONVECTION WITH THE MCS IS TRENDING
WEAKER AND DROPPING MORE SOUTH THAN EAST. SATELLITE SEEMS TO CONFIRM
THE WEAKENING TREND WITH SIGNIFICANT WARMING NOTED IN THE CLOUD TOPS
ON THE IR SATELLITE. THE CLOUDS...SOON TO BE MAINLY DEBRIS...ALSO
APPEAR TO BE MOVING SOUTH...FOR THE MOST PART BYPASSING EAST
KENTUCKY. TEMPERATURES ARE ON TRACK WITH READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S WHILE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. THE UPPER LOW
REMAINS NEARBY...ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA
...WITH SFC CONDITIONS SIMILAR IF NOT WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. WHILE
THE CONVECTION WAS MAINLY ISOLATED AND IN THE EAST YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON...EXPECT A FEW CELLS TO POP UP IN THIS AREA AGAIN TODAY AND
ALSO HAVE TO ADD TO THE MIX ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT WORK IN FROM
THE WEST. ACCORDINGLY...WILL ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE FORECAST EVERYWHERE THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH MOST PLACES WILL STAY
DRY. UPDATES OUT SHORTLY.

THE PREVIOUS SHORT TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

/TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

THE ECMWF AND THE GFS WERE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MOVING THE
CUT OFF LOW SLOWLY AND STUBBORNLY OFF TO THE EAST. THE NEXT WEATHER
PRODUCER WILL BE SHORT WAVE WHICH IS OVER THE ROCKIES THIS
MORNING AND THEN CONTINUES MOVING EASTERLY AND WILL CROSS THE GREAT
LAKES ON TUESDAY. DECIDED TO DELAY THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION UNTIL
TUESDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF WERE GENERATING SOME PRECIPITATION OUT
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT DUE SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT/WARM FRONTAL
DYNAMICS. I LEANED TOWARD THE NAM SOLUTION WHICH STAYED DRY UNTIL
TUESDAY. I AM COUNTING ON THE FACT THAT THE ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL NOT
BE STRONG ENOUGH IN THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT TO GENERATE MUCH. THE
ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT WILL BE IF ANY MCS/S ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP. GENERAL
MODEL AGREEMENT CONTINUES WITH PUSHING A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST ACROSS
KENTUCKY DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...PROVIDING THE BEST CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION...WITH A QUICK EXIT BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A WAVE IS
FORECAST TO FORM ON THE FRONT AND MOVE BACK ACROSS THE AREA ON
THURSDAY. RIGHT NOW...IT LOOK LIKE THE AREA SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAIN
PARKWAY WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
WAVE.

FOR TEMPERATURES...JUST MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE EARLIER
FORECAST. FOR TUESDAY...TENDED TOWARD THE WARMER ETA MOS. FOR WED
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...TRENDED THE FORECAST TOWARDS THE EXTENDED GFS
MOS.

.LONG TERM.../FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

A BLEND OF THE LATEST ECMWF ALONG WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST CONTINUITY
WAS USED...AS THE GFS HAS BEEN ERRATIC IN MODEL SOLUTIONS THIS FAR
OUT AS OF LATE. A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN WILL TAKE PLACE
FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN ISOLATED
CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL BUILD THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...PUSHING 90 DEGREES FOR MOST BY SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION.../12Z TO 12Z/

THOSE LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED RAIN SUNDAY...LOZ AND SME...GOT SOME
FOG THIS MORNING. THAT FOG WILL BURN OFF WITHIN THE HOUR...LEAVING
VFR CONDITIONS WITH JUST A MID LEVEL SCATTERED LAYER AT THE TOP OF
THE MIXING LAYER. VFR WILL CONTINUE WITH NEARLY CLEAR SKIES EARLY
OVERNIGHT AND THEN AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS WITH SHOWERS ON THE HORIZON.
FORECAST WILL INCLUDE VCSH AT THE END OF THE FCST PERIOD...ALTHOUGH
THE SHOWERS SHOULD NOT BE SEEN UNTIL LATER IN THE MORNING.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...JJ/GREIF
LONG TERM....GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...DUSTY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1145 AM EDT MON JUL 7 2008

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-081845-
FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE-
JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN-
ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT-
OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE-
1145 AM EDT MON JUL 7 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WITH GUSTY WINDS...
FREQUENT LIGHTNING...SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN THE MAIN THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

GREIF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1205 PM EDT MON JUL 07 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0621 PM     HAIL             2 SW BIG ROCK           37.02N 83.23W
07/06/2008  E0.75 INCH       LESLIE             KY   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

&&

WJM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1229 PM EDT MON JUL 07 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0933 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 NE WILLIAMSPORT       37.84N 82.70W
07/06/2008                   JOHNSON            KY   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            TWO TREES WERE BLOWN DOWN.

&&

WJM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1242 PM EDT MON JUL 07 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0547 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 E WALDO               37.58N 82.94W
07/05/2008                   MAGOFFIN           KY   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            A COUPLE OF TREES WERE BLOWN DOWN.

&&

WJM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
100 PM EDT MON JUL 07 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0845 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 NE PRESTONSBURG       37.71N 82.71W
07/06/2008                   FLOYD              KY   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            TWO TREES WERE BLOWN DOWN.

&&

WJM

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