Severe Thunderstorm Warning 148, NWS Jackson, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
423 PM EDT SAT JUN 28 2008

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...UPDATED
GFS AND SREF SEEMED TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND
WEATHER FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...SO A BLEND OF THOSE TWO MODELS
WAS USED FOR TODAYS FORECAST. VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS CURRENTLY IN
PLACE ACROSS FORECAST AREA WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FIRING DURING
PEAK DAYTIME HEATING AND ALONG AXIS OF A 39-40KT LOW LEVEL JET.
EXPECT BEST POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD AND INTENSE CONVECTION
AROUND 0Z THIS EVENING...AS AN MCV AND UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK MOVE
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. INSPITE OF RATHER ANEMIC WIND PROFILES IN THE
MODEL SOUNDINGS AND AREA VWP...ENOUGH INSTABILITY EXISTS FOR
POSSIBILITY OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS
THIS EVENING. MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO SUPPORTIVE OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF AROUND ONE AND THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH AND TALL SKINNY CAPE PROFILES THROUGH TOMORROW
MORNING. MADE MENTION OF SEVERE POTENTIAL AND HEAVY RAINFALL IN BOTH
THE HWO AND ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT. PREFERRED A BLEND BETWEEN THE
WARMER MOS MEMBERS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY...AS MODEL
SOUNDINGS AND CURRENTS OBSERVATIONS TRENDS SUPPORT WARMER TEMPS THAN
THE LATEST MAVMOS NUMBERS HAVE. STAYED COOLER THAN THE WARMEST MOS
NUMBERS FOR HIGHS ON MONDAY...GOING CLOSEST TO THE WARMER FWCMOS FOR
HIGHS ON MONDAY. AT THIS POINT STILL NOT QUITE BELIEVING AIR MASS
WILL BE AS COOL AS THE MAV/MET HIGHS FOR MONDAY. ALSO TOOK INTO
ACCOUNT LINGERING CLOUD COVER WHICH WOULD HELP MODERATE TEMPERATURES
A BIT. USED A BLEND OF HPC AND GFS QPF FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH A
SLIGHTLY WESTWARD BIAS REGARDING THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THE BEST
RAINFALL...AS IT APPEARS AN MCS WILL FORM DURING THE LATE EVENING
HOURS TODAY AND SKIRT ACROSS THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. DEWPOINTS AND WINDS WERE IN MODIFIED SLIGHTLY BUT WERE
OTHERWISE IN GOOD SHAPE. WENT DRY FOR MONDAY NIGHT AS BOTH THE GFS
AND NAM12 MODELS KEEP TO THE EAST AND/OR NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...UPDATED
OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES AGREE PRETTY WELL FOR THIS PERIOD
THOUGH THEY BEGIN TO DIVERGE AT THE END OF NEXT WEEK. DRY NORTHWEST
FLOW AT 500 MB ARRIVES MON NIGHT AND NO WRAPAROUND MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED WITHOUT A CLOSE LOW BY THEN AND A SHORTWAVE RIDGE JUST
UPSTREAM...SO NO PRECIP EXPECTED. MODELS SHOW GENERAL WEST-SOUTHWEST
FLOW AT DEPTH BY INDEPENDENCE DAY AND A RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL SUMMER
CHANCES FOR THUNDER. 850 MB TEMPERATURES ALSO RETURN TO AROUND
+18C...ENOUGH TO FAVOR MAXES ABOVE MEX GUIDANCE AND ACCEPTED HPC
NUMBERS.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z TO 18Z/

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INITIATED ACROSS THE AREA BUT EXPECT THEY WILL
BE STRONGER AND MORE NUMEROUS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. SEVERAL BANDS
OF DEVELOPING CUMULUS APPARENT ON SATELLITE WILL ORGANIZE STORMS
MOVING ACROSS EASTERN KY. MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTICITY CENTER
CURRENTLY SOUTH OF EHR IS ONLY MOVING EAST AT 21 KNOTS AND WILL HELP
FIRE STORMS TOWARDS THE EAST. BUT ANYTHING FROM THAT WOULD MORE
LIKELY ARRIVE DURING THE EVENING. WILL MONITOR THAT FOR POSSIBLE
UPDATES NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. AM MORE CONFIDENT OF THE AFTERNOON FOR
TEMPO GROUPS IN THE TAFS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...GV
AVIATION...GV

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
157 PM EDT SAT JUN 28 2008

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-292100-
FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE-
JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN-
ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT-
OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLEMINGSBURG...MOUNT STERLING...
OWINGSVILLE...MOREHEAD...IRVINE...STANTON...FRENCHBURG...
MOUNT VERNON...MCKEE...SOMERSET...LONDON...MONTICELLO...
WHITLEY CITY...CORBIN...WILLIAMSBURG...BARBOURVILLE...MIDDLESBORO...
PINEVILLE...HARLAN...SANDY HOOK...WEST LIBERTY...PAINTSVILLE...
CAMPTON...SALYERSVILLE...PRESTONSBURG...BEATTYVILLE...JACKSON...
HINDMAN...BOONEVILLE...HAZARD...MANCHESTER...HYDEN...WHITESBURG...
INEZ...PIKEVILLE
157 PM EDT SAT JUN 28 2008

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 630 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOME OF THESE STORMS
COULD BE SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...AND PENNY SIZE HAIL. IN ADDITION...ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT
OCCUR TODAY AND TONIGHT COULD CONTAIN VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...POSSIBLY
LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES FROM SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. ANY
STORMS THAT DEVELOP ON SUNDAY WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL
HAIL.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

GREIF/AR

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
229 PM EDT SAT JUN 28 2008

KYZ104-106-107-109-281915-
ELLIOTT-JOHNSON-MORGAN-MAGOFFIN-
229 PM EDT SAT JUN 28 2008

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN ELLIOTT AND
EASTERN MORGAN AND JOHNSON AND NORTHERN MAGOFFIN COUNTIES THROUGH 315
PM EDT SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

AT 229 PM EDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM CULVER TO ELKFORK TO MALONE...MOVING EAST AT 29 MPH.

THE STORMS WILL BE NEAR WILLIAMS AROUND 235 PM EDT...WONNIE AROUND
240 PM EDT...TELLA AROUND 245 PM EDT...REDBUSH AROUND 250 PM EDT...
WIN AROUND 255 PM EDT...

RESIDENTS SHOULD EXPECT TORRENTIAL RAIN...GUSTY WINDS OF 35 TO 45
MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL IN THESE AREAS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT
SATURDAY EVENING FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY.

SCHOETTMER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
324 PM EDT SAT JUN 28 2008

KYZ118-282000-
LETCHER-
324 PM EDT SAT JUN 28 2008

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM TO AFFECT CENTRAL LETCHER COUNTY THROUGH 400
PM EDT SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

AT 324 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR KINGS CREEK...
MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR OVEN FORK AROUND 330 PM EDT...ERMINE AROUND
335 PM EDT...WRIGHT AROUND 340 PM EDT...PAYNE GAP AROUND 345 PM
EDT...GASKILL AROUND 350 PM EDT...

RESIDENTS SHOULD EXPECT TORRENTIAL RAIN...GUSTY WINDS OF 35 TO 45
MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL IN THESE AREAS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT
SATURDAY EVENING FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY.

SCHOETTMER