Severe Thunderstorm Warning 144, NWS Jackson, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
259 PM EDT THU JUN 26 2008

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...UPDATED

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE POPPED UP OVER EAST KENTUCKY
IN THE PAST HOUR. INITIAL UPDRAFTS ON THE STRONGER STORMS LOOK
OKAY...HOWEVER A LACK OF ANY REAL LOW OR MID LEVEL FLOW AND MUCH
WEAKER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES EVIDENT ON THE 18Z LAPS SOUNDING HAVE
KEPT STORMS VERY UNORGANIZED AND VERY SHORT LIVED. AT THIS TIME...DO
NOT EXPECT ANY MORE STORMS TO GO SEVERE AND ANY STRONG CORES THAT
ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP WILL DIMINISH VERY RAPIDLY.

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL DEAL WITH THE STRONG UPPER
LOW THAT WILL IMPACT EAST KENTUCKY OVER THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. MOISTURE RETURN FLOW HAS SET IN TODAY...ALLOWING TD/S TO
JUMP INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S. OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS MORE DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE. THE MOISTURE...COMBINED WITH A SERIES OF
EMBEDDED H5 WAVES IN THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH WILL PROVIDE THE
SETUP FOR GOOD CHANCES OF RAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TIMING OF EACH
INDIVIDUAL WAVE IS DIFFICULT AT THIS POINT...HOWEVER RIGHT NOW IT
LOOKS LIKE FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL HAVE GOOD CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
...WITH A GENERAL LULL ON FRIDAY NIGHT. CHANCES PICK UP AGAIN ON MID
MORNING SATURDAY...WITH THE MOST LIKELY PRECIPITATION COMING ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. 12Z GUIDANCE VALUES FOR POPS HAVE
ADDED CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST.

THE LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE NOT AS IMPRESSIVE WITH OVERALL
DEEP MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN ON SATURDAY...HOWEVER PWAT VALUES OF
AROUND 1.75 INCHES WILL STILL ALLOW FOR EFFICIENT RAINFALL
PRODUCERS AND A SIZABLE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL SHOULD STILL FALL. AT
THIS TIME...WILL BACK OFF A LITTLE ON THE CONCERN FOR PROBLEMS WITH
FLASH FLOODING...HOWEVER CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING
PROBLEMS...ESPECIALLY IF TRAINING OF CELLS OCCUR AND THE SAME AREAS
ARE HIT BY MANY THUNDERSTORMS. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER STILL
HAS ALL OF EASTERN KENTUCKY IN A DAY 3 SLIGHT RISK. SHEAR PROFILES
LOOK TO BE PRETTY UNIDIRECTIONAL...WITH SPEED SHEAR MARGINAL.
HOWEVER...WITH STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT AND PLENTY OF INSTABILITY
...A SEVERE THREAT SURELY SEEMS POSSIBLE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE SITUATION AND MENTION THREATS IN THE HWO.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...DID NOT HAVE TO MAKE MANY CHANGES AS
EVERYTHING LOOKS ON TRACK. LATEST GUIDANCE VALUES...ALONG WITH HPC
SUPPORT SEEM TO AGREE WITH TEMPERATURES PRETTY WELL. AFTERNOON
PACKAGE WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.

.LONG TERM.../SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...UPDATED

ENSEMBLES AND OPERATIONAL RUNS SREF/GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN/NOGAPS AGREE
FAIRLY WELL REGARDING THE UNUSUALLY HIGH AMPLITUDE (FOR JULY) AND
POSITION OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWEEPING THROUGH EASTERN U.S. LATE
THIS WEEKEND AND THEN BUILDING THE RIDGE AGAIN. HPC GUIDANCE WAS
CONSISTENT WITH THIS IDEA AND HELD ON TO IT. MODELS HAVE BEEN
SLOWING PROGRESSION OF THAT SHORTWAVE DOWN AND WE MAY BE HOLDING
ONTO AND/OR EXTENDING RAIN CHANCES SUN/MON (MEX SHOWS CATEGORICAL
POPS ON SUN). BY WED THE PATTERN LOOKS SIMILAR TO CURRENT CONDITIONS
AND A RETURN TO HOT/HUMID IS LIKELY BY THEN.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z TO 18Z/

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE AREA AND EXPECT THESE
TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY EVENING BUT SHOULD NOT INCREASE COVERAGE MUCH.
WILL UPDATE TAFS THIS AFTERNOON ONLY IF A CLUSTER OF STORMS
APPROACHES. BELIEVE VCTS WILL SUFFICE. OTHERWISE THINK THERE IS
ENOUGH RIDGE REMAINING ONCE THE HEATING IS LOST TO KEEP THUNDER
FROM APPROACHING WITH THE SHORTWAVE FROM IL LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...SCHOETTMER
LONG TERM...GV
AVIATION...GV

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
359 PM EDT THU JUN 26 2008

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-271100-
FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE-
JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN-
ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT-
OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE-
359 PM EDT THU JUN 26 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT. THE MAIN THREATS
WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...SMALL
HAIL...AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE OCCURRING FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. SOME OF THE STORMS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND SATURDAY NIGHT COULD BE STRONG...CONTAINING GUSTY WINDS...AND
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT COULD
CONTAIN VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...POSSIBLY LEADING TO ISOLATED FLASH
FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED ON SATURDAY.

GEOGERIAN/SCHOETTMER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
346 PM EDT THU JUN 26 2008

KYZ044-262015-
FLEMING-
346 PM EDT THU JUN 26 2008

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM TO AFFECT NORTHERN FLEMING COUNTY THROUGH
415 PM EDT THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

AT 346 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
FLEMINGSBURG...MOVING EAST AT 26 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR MOUNT CARMEL AROUND 355 PM EDT...FOXPORT
AROUND 400 PM EDT...

RESIDENTS SHOULD EXPECT HEAVY RAIN...WITH RAINFALL RATES OF UP TO
ONE HALF INCH PER HOUR...GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL IN THESE AREAS.

DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
THUNDERSTORM. TAKE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR
THUNDER THEN LIGHTNING IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE A HAZARD.

DUSTY

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