Severe Thunderstorm Warning 121, NWS Jackson, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1000 AM EDT MON JUN 16 2008

.SHORT TERM.../THE REST OF TODAY/...UPDATED

HAVE UPDATED GRIDS AND ASSOCIATED FORECAST PRODUCTS FOR EARLIER ONSET
OF THUNDERSTORMS AND THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. NO SEVERE REPORTS YET
WITH STORMS MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF FORECAST AREA...BUT
HAVE HAD REPORTS OF ONE-HALF INCH DIAMETER HAIL IN NORTHERN FLEMING
COUNTY. AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE IN AREAS OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING. GOES SATELLITE DERIVED LI/S DOWN TO -4.
RUC AND MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWS LI/S DOWN TO -6 WITH THE LATEST RUC
FORECASTING LI/S DOWN TO -8 BY EARLY AFTERNOON. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
FROM THIS MORNING/S CONVECTION SHOULD SERVE AS FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING IS
ALSO A THREAT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT WILL NOT BE THROUGH
THE AREA UNTIL THIS EVENING.

THE PREVIOUS SHORT TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

/TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH LARGE SCALE FEATURES BUT DIFFER
SIGNIFICANTLY IN DETAILS...PARTICULARLY IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS
HAS SOME SIGNIFICANT IMPLICATIONS FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SEVERE WEATHER
TODAY. IN PARTICULAR THE NAM IS CONSIDERABLY MORE MOIST IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER THAN THE GFS AND ECMWF FCST SOUNDINGS. BUT BASED ON
THE 12Z/0Z OHX SOUNDINGS FORM THE PAST 24 HOURS THE NAM HAS HAD THE
BEST HANDLE ON MOISTURE PROFILES. WITH MOST OTHER PARAMETERS BEING
SIMILAR...THE TENDENCY WAS TO LEAN MORE TOWARDS THE NAM SOLUTION FOR
THE OVERALL EVOLUTION OF EVENTS DURING THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD.

A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS THE MIDWEST WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD
TODAY AND ENTER EASTERN KENTUCKY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON TIME
FRAME. A SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED
OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL CAUSE A GOOD BIT OF MID LEVEL COOLING OVER
THE REGION...EFFECTIVELY STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE
COMBINATION OF THESE FEATURES WILL SET THE STAGE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR CWA LATER TODAY WITH THE MAIN THREAT
WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

TIMING OF COLD FRONT PUTS IT INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY DURING PRIME
HEATING. USING THE NAM BUFR SOUNDING AFTERNOON CAPES CLIMB TO AROUND
2000 J/KG WHILE LI/S DROP TO BETWEEN -5 AND -7. DRY AIR AT THE MID
LEVELS LEAD TO A WET BULB ZERO BEING AROUND THE 11K LEVEL...WITHIN
THE MARGINS FOR LARGE HAIL. WITH ONLY MODERATE WIND SPEEDS AND WIND
FLOW PROFILES BECOMING MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL WITH TIME...EXPECT THE
PRIMARY CONVECTIVE MODE TO EVOLVE FROM INDIVIDUAL THUNDERSTORM CELLS
INTO LINEAR MULTICELL CLUSTERS...OR LINES. WITH THE POTENTIAL OF
BOWING SEGMENTS WIND DAMAGE WILL BECOME AN INCREASING THREAT WITH
TIME. SPC HAS PLACED EASTERN KENTUCKY IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS AND WILL MENTION THIS POTENTIAL IN THE HWO.

.LONG TERM.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/

EAST COAST TROF TO BE THE PRIMARY WX MAKER FOR THE LONG TERM. A
SERIES OF MINOR WAVES TO ROTATE AROUND THE PRIMARY LOW...WHICH
BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER SRN CANADA BEFORE SLIDING UP THE ST LAWRENCE
SEAWAY NEXT WEEKEND. TIMING OF THE DISTURBANCES THAT WILL AFFECT OUR
PCPN CHANCES IS PROBLEMATIC AT BEST...SO HAVE OPTED TO FOLLOW A
DIURNAL PATTERN FOR FRI/SAT PCPN CHANCES WITH BEST POP IN THE LATE
AFTERNOONS. THIS TIMING SEEMS TO MATCH UP WELL WITH HPC AND
SURROUNDING OFFICES.

&&

.AVIATION.../12Z TO 12Z/

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING WEST OF INTERSTATE 75 AS OF
640 AM. THESE WILL BE MOVING EAST THROUGH THE MORNING...AND WILL
CARRY A TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR CONDITIONS AT JKL. WILL MENTION VCTS AT
LOZ AND SME...BUT EXPECT THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY WILL STAY NORTH OF
THOSE TERMINALS. MORE TSRA EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS A COLD FRONT DROPS
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. WILL GO WITH PREDOMINANT VFR
CONDITIONS...BUT KEEP A MENTION OF VCTS THROUGH THE DAY. TRIED TO
TIME THE BEST CHANCES OF SEEING TSRA...USING A TEMPO GROUP FROM 18 TO
21Z AT JKL...AND 19 TO 22Z AT LOZ AND SME. EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS IN
THE HEAVIER STORMS. IN ADDITION...SOME OF THE STORMS TODAY COULD BE
SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREATS. BY 00 TO
01Z...MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE SOUTHEAST OF THE TAF SITES. WILL
BRING SOME MVFR FOG IN TONIGHT AT LOZ AND SME...WITH CONDITIONS
DROPPING TO IFR TOWARDS SUNRISE.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...RAY/SBH
LONG TERM....DUSTY
AVIATION...WJM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
500 AM EDT MON JUN 16 2008

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-171100-
FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE-
JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN-
ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT-
OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE-
500 AM EDT MON JUN 16 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES EASTERN KENTUCKY. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD
BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN
THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH
OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING ACROSS THE
ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY OCCURRENCES OF HAIL OR DAMAGING
WINDS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON.

RAY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
749 AM EDT MON JUN 16 2008

KYZ044-052-161245-
FLEMING-ROWAN-
749 AM EDT MON JUN 16 2008

...A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT FLEMING AND NORTH
CENTRAL ROWAN COUNTIES THROUGH 845 AM EDT MONDAY MORNING...

AT 749 AM EDT...A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED 12
MILES WEST OF FAIRVIEW...MOVING EAST AT 32 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR COWAN AROUND 810 AM EDT...NEPTON AROUND 815
AM EDT...CRAINTOWN AROUND 820 AM EDT...FLEMINGSBURG AROUND 825 AM
EDT...AND DALESBURG AROUND 830 AM EDT.

RESIDENTS CAN EXPECT UP TO ONE HALF INCH OF RAIN...GUSTY WINDS UP TO
40 MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL IN THESE AREAS.

DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS. TAKE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR
THUNDER THEN LIGHTNING IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE A HAZARD.

WJM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
845 AM EDT MON JUN 16 2008

KYZ044-051-052-161345-
FLEMING-ROWAN-BATH-
845 AM EDT MON JUN 16 2008

...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT FLEMING...NORTHERN
ROWAN...AND NORTH CENTRAL BATH COUNTIES THROUGH 945 AM EDT MONDAY
MORNING...

AT 845 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED AN
AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM
FOXPORT TO FLEMINGSBURG TO 6 MILES WEST OF SHERBURNE...MOVING EAST
AT 38 MPH.

THE STORMS WILL BE NEAR WALLINGFORD AROUND 850 AM EDT...PEBBLE AROUND
855 AM EDT...PLUMMERS LANDING AROUND 900 AM EDT...RINGOS MILLS AROUND
905 AM EDT...AND WALTZ AROUND 910 AM EDT.

ADDITIONAL STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WEST WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH
THE AREA THIS MORNING.

RESIDENTS CAN EXPECT UP TO ONE INCH OF RAIN...GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50
MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL IN THESE AREAS.

THE HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON AREA ROADWAYS.
MOTORISTS ARE URGED TO DRIVE CAREFULLY.

WJM

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1216 PM EDT MON JUN 16 2008

KYZ052-104-161700-
ROWAN-ELLIOTT-
1216 PM EDT MON JUN 16 2008

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM TO AFFECT CENTRAL ROWAN AND ELLIOTT COUNTIES
THROUGH 100 PM EDT MONDAY AFTERNOON...

AT 1216 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR LAKEVIEW
HEIGHTS...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR VALE AROUND 1225 PM EDT...ELLIOTTVILLE AROUND
1230 PM EDT...STARK AROUND 1240 PM EDT...BRUIN AROUND 1245 PM EDT.
THE STORM WILL LIKELY PRODUCE ONE-HALF INCH DIAMETER HAIL...AND WIND
GUSTS TO 40 MPH.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM EDT MONDAY
AFTERNOON FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY.

SBH

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