Ice Storm Warning 1, NWS Jackson, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
645 PM EST THU FEB 21 2008

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THE FIRST WAVE OF PRECIPITATION...IN THE
FORM OF MAINLY SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...LIFTING NORTH OF A MOUNT
VERNON TO JACKSON TO PIKEVILLE LINE. THIS FIRST WAVE OF PRECIPITATION
WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE NORTH BEFORE ANOTHER BATCH OF PRECIPITATION
...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF RAIN...ARRIVES TONIGHT. LAPS SOUNDINGS
ALONG WITH RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW THERMAL PROFILE
SUPPORTIVE OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET AND EVEN SOME SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES. WILL KEEP FREEZING RAIN AND WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES AS THEY ARE FOR NOW AND CONTINUE TO CANCEL AS NEED BE.
HOWEVER...AREAS NORTH OF I 64 WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR A
POSSIBLE UPGRADE SINCE TOTAL ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL FLIRT WITH
WARNING CRITERIA.

SURFACE OBS FINALLY SHOW AREAS SOUTH OF THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY
STARTING TO WARM AIR ADVECT AFTER STRUGGLING WITH A COLD AIR BOUNDARY
CREATED BY EARLIER PRECIPITATION. THIS BEING SAID...EXPECT ONSET OF
NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION TO BE IN THE FORM OF ALL RAIN.

SHIFTING THE FOCUS TO FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM UP NICELY AS WARM AIR ADVECTION AT THE SURFACE SETS IN AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING SURFACE LOW. THEREFORE...EXPECTING ALL RAIN WITH ONLY
THE NORTHERN COUNTIES SHIFTING BACK OVER TO SNOW BY 5 AM SATURDAY
MORNING. SOME UPSLOPE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS COULD LINGER INTO
SATURDAY AFTERNOON IF THERE IS ANY LINGERING MOISTURE STILL IN THE
AREA. WENT BELOW MOS GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY MET...AS DAYTIME HIGHS
WILL NOT BE ABLE TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF MUCH LATE FEBRUARY SUN ON
FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM.../SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY BE MOVING OUT OF THE AREA ON
SATURDAY. A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL WORK ITS WAY THRU THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TO THE TN VLY TO GRAZE THE SRN COUNTIES IN KY ON SUNDAY.
PRECIPITATION FOR SUNDAY NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE AS BOTH THE NEW ECMWF
AND GFS WERE SHOWING LITTLE IN THE MANNER OF PW. A MORE SIGNIFICANT
SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND THEN THRU THE GT LKS.
THIS WILL DRAG A COLD FNT THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND WILL BRING
SOME WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. THIS SYSTEM WILL LINGER INTO MID WEEK
WITH DAYTIME RAIN AND NIGHT TIME SNOW THE PRIMARY CONSIDERATIONS. BY
WED NITE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE PLAINS AND PUSH ANY PCPN
NORTH AND EAST OF KY.

&&

.AVIATION.../00Z TO 24Z/...UPDATED

FIRST WAVE OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WILL BE EXITING THE FAR
NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 01Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...INCLUDING
ALL TAF SITES. STILL CONCERNED ABOUT LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WITH 30 TO
40 KNOT WINDS ABOVE THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION. WILL CONTINUE WITH LLWS IN
THE TAFS OVERNIGHT. PRECIPITATION IN WESTERN KY SHOWS WEAKENING TREND
ON THE SOUTHERN END OF AREA AND WILL LEAVE RAIN OUT OF TAF FORECASTS
FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WITH RISING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT THE NEXT
ROUND OR PRECIPITATION WHICH WILL ARRIVE BY 12Z WILL BE IN THE FORM
OF RAIN. LOOK FOR LOWERING CEILINGS AFTER 12Z WITH MVFR CEILINGS
PREVAILING ALL DAY. CONDITIONS MAY DETERIORATE FURTHER FRIDAY EVENING
BEYOND THE CURRENT TAF FORECASTS WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST FRIDAY FOR KYZ044-050>052-
104.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EST FRIDAY FOR KYZ058>060-
106>109-111-112-119.

FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR KYZ110-
113>115-118-120.

FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR KYZ068-
069.

&&

SHORT TERM...SCHOETTMER
LONG TERM....DUSTY
AVIATION...SBH

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
436 PM EST THU FEB 21 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 PM     FREEZING RAIN    OWINGSVILLE             38.14N 83.76W
02/21/2008  U0.00 INCH       BATH               KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            COUNTY 911 REPORTED AROUND TWO DOZEN ACCIDENTS BETWEEN
            MILE MARKER 116 AND 123. INTERSTATE 64 CLOSED DUE TO
            THIS.

&&

JCARICO

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