Flash Flood Warning 22, NWS Jackson, KY

000 
WGUS73 KJKL 280245
FFSJKL

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1045 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2008

KYC133-280345-
/O.CON.KJKL.FF.W.0022.000000T0000Z-080828T0345Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
LETCHER KY-
1045 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2008

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1145 PM EDT FOR EAST
CENTRAL LETCHER COUNTY...

AT 1040 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES 
THAT JUST LIGHT RAIN IS FALLING OVER THE AREA CURRENTLY...BUT UP TO 
TWO INCHES OF RAIN FELL IN A SMALL AMOUNT OF TIME EARLIER IN THE 
EVENING AND THE RUNOFF FROM THIS IS LIKELY STILL CAUSING HIGH WATER 
PROBLEMS ON AREA ROADS. 

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO POTTERS
FORK...NEON JUNCTION...TOLLIVER TOWN...LOWNDES...HORN...HEMPHILL...
HAYMOND...GASKILL...DUNHAM...CROMONA...CRAFTSVILLE...CHIP...
BURDINE...MCROBERTS...JENKINS AND FLEMING-NEON

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...COUNTRY ROADS...AS WELL AS FARMLAND ALONG THE
BANKS OF CREEKS AND STREAMS.

IN HILLY TERRAIN THERE ARE HUNDREDS OF LOW WATER CROSSINGS WHICH ARE
POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS IN HEAVY RAIN. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL ACROSS
FLOODED ROADS. FIND ALTERNATE ROUTES. IT TAKES ONLY A FEW INCHES OF
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATER TO CARRY VEHICLES AWAY.

TO REPORT ANY FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...CALL TOLL
FREE AT...1...8 7 7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 3717 8282 3723 8273 3719 8258 3711 8276

$$

GREIF

000 
WGUS73 KJKL 280353
FFSJKL

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1153 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2008

KYC133-280401-
/O.EXP.KJKL.FF.W.0022.000000T0000Z-080828T0345Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
LETCHER KY-
1153 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2008

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS EXPIRED FOR EAST CENTRAL LETCHER
COUNTY...

THE HEAVY RAIN THAT AFFECTED PARTS OF LETCHER COUNTY EARLY IN THE 
EVENING HAS DIMINISHED TO VERY LIGHT SHOWERS AND NO LONGER POSES A 
THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING. ACCORDINGLY...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING WAS 
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 11:45 PM EDT. 

TO REPORT ANY FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...CALL TOLL
FREE AT...1...8 7 7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 3717 8282 3723 8273 3719 8258 3711 8276

$$

GREIF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
805 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2008

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL DEAL WITH ESCORTING THE
REMNANTS OF FAY OUT OF THE REGION AND THE ARRIVAL OF A WEAK COLD
FRONT LATE IN THE PERIOD. CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A FEW CLUSTERS
OF LIGHT SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST WITH THE
DISORGANIZED CENTER OF THE SYSTEM SOMEWHERE NEAR THE TN/VA/KY
BORDERS. EXPECT LINGERING SHOWERS TO CONTINUE IN THE EASTERN PART
OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW SLOWLY SLIDES UP THE SPINE OF THE
APPALACHIANS. HAVE GONE DRY AFTER 00Z IN THE WESTERN COUPLE OF TIERS
OF THE CWA. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO WITH WRAP
AROUND PRECIP...HOWEVER COVERAGE SHOULD BE LESS THAN ENOUGH TO
WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE POP. WILL KEEP PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AROUND THIS EVENING...ALLOWING FOR PATCHY FOG TO HANG AROUND DESPITE
CLOUD COVER REMAINING PRETTY HEAVY. SHOULD CLEARING DEVELOP A LITTLE
EARLIER TONIGHT...MORE WIDESPREAD FOG WILL BE A POSSIBILITY...
ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN CWA.

AS WE HEAD INTO THURSDAY...A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN NEAR THE WV/VA BORDERS AS PLENTY OF MOISTURE LINGERS IN THE
AREA. OVERALL...THURSDAY WILL BE THE NICEST DAY OF THE SHORT TERM...
WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING UP TO THE MIDDLE 80S UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES.

FRIDAY BRINGS THE APPROACH OF A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA...IF
YOU BUY INTO THE FASTER GFS WHICH HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT AND
THE PREFERRED MODEL OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF FORECAST CYCLES. MAY HAVE
TO WATCH FOR A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
AS HIGH TD/S AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
WILL ALLOW FOR SOME DESCENT INSTABILITY. THE SREF SEEMS TO BUY INTO
THE POSSIBILITY WITH AROUND 1000 J/KG OF CAPE AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. FOR NOW...WILL MAINTAIN 30 POPS FOR THE
HEIGHT OF THE EVENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION TAPERING OFF RAPIDLY AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO
THE REGION AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. WILL MENTION THAT THIS
PORTION OF THE FORECAST RELIED HEAVILY ON THE GFS SOLUTION DUE TO ITS
CONSISTENCY OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...SHOULD THE MODEL TREND
SLOWER AND WEAKER WITH THE FRONT...MANY CHANGES WILL BE NECESSARY.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...DID NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. HAVE RAISED TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY TONIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR
SKY COVER STICKING AROUND A LITTLE LONGER. ALSO...HAVE LOWERED HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY...TO ACCOUNT FOR FASTER ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT.

.LONG TERM.../SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AFFECTING THE AREA LATE THIS WEEK WILL
HAVE PASSED BY THE START OF THE WEEKEND. 12Z GFS IS EVEN STRONGER
WITH THE HIGH PRESS BUILDING IN FOR THE WEEKEND AND HENCE HAVE
PULLED ALL BUT A SLGHT CHC POP FOR THE FAR SERN COUNTIES. MAY EVEN
NEED TO PULL THIS POP BUT WILL LOOK AT ADDITIONAL DATA BEFORE MAKING
THAT DECISION. WILL KEEP SUNDAY AND MONDAY DRY AS WELL SINCE THIS
TIME PERIOD WILL BE STRONGLY INFLUENCED BY THE STRENGTH OF THE
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. BY LATE TUE THE HIGH HAS SLID TO THE
ATLANTIC COAST AS ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM IS SET TO CROSS THE MISS
RIVER. THE HIGH IS SUPPRESSED TO THE SERN ATLANTIC COAST AS THE
PARENT LOW TRACKS THRU ERN CANADA AND THE FRONTAL BNDRY BECOMES
QUITE SLUGGISH AND LOOKS TO BECOME STALLED JUST NORTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER. THE ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER WITH THIS SYSTEM AND MAY HAVE TO
DELAY ANY POP IF THIS MODEL PREVAILS.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...HAVE CONTINUED TO GO BELOW GUIDANCE
VALUES FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED. THIS IS BASED ON SIGNIFICANT SKY
COVER WITH THE FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH. SHOULD THE GFS SOLUTION NOT
PAN OUT...SUBSTANTIAL INCREASES TO DAYTIME HIGHS AND LOWER MIN T/S
WILL BE NECESSARY AS SKY COVER WILL NOT BE AS GREAT.

&&

.AVIATION.../00Z TO 24Z/...UPDATED

POCKETS OF DRIZZLE AND SOME SHOWERS ARE SWIRLING THROUGH EAST
KENTUCKY THIS EVENING...WITH MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHOWERS AND EVEN A
POTENTIAL FOR A THUNDERSTORM CLOSER TO THE VIRGINIA BORDER.
COMPOUNDING THE CONCERNS FOR AVIATION TONIGHT WILL BE THE CURRENT LOW
CEILINGS AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR THEM DESCENDING FURTHER OVERNIGHT
LEADING TO IFR AND/OR LIFR CIG AND VSBY RESTRICTIONS. HAVE ACCOUNTED
FOR THIS POTENTIAL IN THE GRIDS AND TAFS ALONG WITH ADDING A TEMPO
FOR CONDITIONS ON THE VERGE OF VLIFR. DO EXPECT THE CONDITIONS TO
GRADUALLY IMPROVE DURING THE MORNING THURSDAY EVENTUALLY GIVING WAY
TO VFR CONDITIONS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS INITIALLY WILL BE FROM
THE NORTH AT AROUND 5 KTS...THOUGH THEY ARE EXPECTED TO GO NEARLY
CALM TOWARDS MIDNIGHT AND STAY LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...SCHOETTMER
LONG TERM....DUSTY
AVIATION...GREIF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
254 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2008

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-282200-
FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE-
JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN-
ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT-
OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE-
254 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

SCHOETTMER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
750 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2008

KYZ118-120-280100-
PIKE-LETCHER-
750 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2008

...A SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORM TO AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN PIKE AND
NORTHEASTERN LETCHER COUNTIES THROUGH 900 PM EDT WEDNESDAY EVENING...

AT 750 PM EDT...A SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR PAYNE
GAP...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 7 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR JENKINS AROUND 755 PM EDT...GASKILL AROUND
805 PM EDT...BURDINE AROUND 815 PM EDT...BEEFHIDE AROUND 820 PM
EDT...AND ADAMSON AROUND 825 PM EDT.

RESIDENTS SHOULD EXPECT VERY HEAVY RAIN...WITH RAINFALL RATES BETWEEN
ONE AND TWO INCHES PER HOUR IN THESE AREAS.

THE HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON AREA ROADWAYS.
MOTORISTS ARE URGED TO DRIVE CAREFULLY.

GREIF