Severe Thunderstorm Warning 85, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
236 PM EDT MON APR 28 2008

.SHORT TERM...COLD FRONT PUSHING EAST ACROSS CENTRAL-SW GA AND FL
PANHANDLE WILL PUSH ACROSS SE GA/NE FL THIS EVENING. CONVECTION
OCCURRING ALONG AND AHEAD OF FRONT WITH ONLY ISOLATED THUNDER DUE
TO WEAK INSTABILITY. SYNOPTIC LIFT ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL JET WILL LIFT
NE OF OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON SO DONT EXPECT MUCH STRONG
ACTIVITY WITH SHOWERS WEAKENING AND ENDING AROUND 00Z THIS
EVENING. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AS
UPPER TROUGH AXIS REACHES THE EAST COAST AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE OVER
THE SE ALLOWING FROM NEAR RECORD LOW TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY
MORNING. WARMING TREND BEGINS THURSDAY AS LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS TO
THE SE AND RIDGE ALOFT MOVES INTO THE SE.

APRIL 30 RECORD LOW TEMPS
AMG 44 1965
SSI 49 1965
JAX 42 1874
GNV 45 1965

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
AREA ON SATURDAY AND THEN SLOWS DOWN AS UPPER SUPPORT WEAKENS.
WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW POPS IN EXTENDED PERIOD DUE TO MARGINAL
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AND SEABREEZE FRONTS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
CLOSE TO CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE AT THE TAF SITES WITH MAINLY
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING THE AREA. GUSTY WINDS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE CONVECTION. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL COME TO AN END BY
MID EVENING WITH LINGERING CLOUDS UNTIL LATE EVENING AND CLEARING
LATE.

&&

.MARINE...OBSERVATIONS SHOW WINDS JUST BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA BUT
ANTICIPATE WINDS TO KICK UP LATER TONIGHT AS THE FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH. MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO LET ADVISORY END A LITTLE EARLIER
TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE AREA ON WED
WIND AND SEA CONDITIONS IMPROVE...WITH SE FLOW THEN ANTICIPATED BY
LATE WEEK AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE WRN ATLC.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG WARNING FOR NE FL ON TUE LOOKS GOOD WITH
WIND AND RH VALUES MEETING CRITERIA EASILY. MORE QUESTIONABLE RED
FLAG CONDS FOR SE GA SO WILL NOT UPGRADE THE WATCH FOR SE GA AS
WINDS LOOK TO BE SHY OF MEETING CRITERIA AT THIS TIME. FOR
WED...RAISED A FIRE WX WATCH FOR LONG DURATIONS OF LOW RH FOR MOST
OF NE FL BEFORE ANY MEANINGFUL MOISTURE RECOVERY DEVELOPS ON NELY
FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  52  74  43  79 /  30   0   0   0
SSI  58  73  52  71 /  60   0   0   0
JAX  56  76  45  76 /  60   0   0   0
SGJ  59  75  54  73 /  60   0   0   0
GNV  58  79  44  79 /  50   0   0   0
OCF  58  80  44  80 /  50   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 12 PM TO 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ALACHUA-
     BAKER-BRADFORD-CLAY-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-
     HAMILTON-MARION-NASSAU-PUTNAM-ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WED AFTERNOON THROUGH WED EVENING FOR
     ALACHUA-BAKER-BRADFORD-CLAY-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-
     GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-MARION-NASSAU-PUTNAM-SUWANNEE-UNION.

GA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR APPLING-ATKINSON-BACON-
     BRANTLEY-CHARLTON-CLINCH-COASTAL CAMDEN-COASTAL GLYNN-
     COFFEE-ECHOLS-INLAND CAMDEN-INLAND GLYNN-JEFF DAVIS-PIERCE-
     WARE-WAYNE.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND
     GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
     FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
     ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

ZIBURA/SHASHY/WALKER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1135 AM EDT MON APR 28 2008

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-291000-
HAMILTON-SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-NASSAU-DUVAL-UNION-BRADFORD-CLAY-
ST JOHNS-GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION-COFFEE-
JEFF DAVIS-BACON-APPLING-WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-BRANTLEY-
INLAND GLYNN-COASTAL GLYNN-ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-
COASTAL CAMDEN-
1135 AM EDT MON APR 28 2008

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH
GUSTY WINDS...

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON PRODUCING
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG AND GUSTY
WINDS TO 30 TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

THERE WILL BE AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER OVER THE AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON DUE TO STRONG WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY.

THE NEXT FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION THIS WEEKEND PRODUCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

PP/MZ

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