Severe Thunderstorm Warning 63, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
255 PM EDT THU APR 3 2008

.SHORT TERM...CLOUDS ON VISIBLE LOOP REVEAL AREA UNDER LOW LEVEL
HIGH PRES RIDGE WHICH HAS WEDGED THE NELY WINDS SOUTH ALONG THE
COAST INTO DUVAL. COMBINATION OF MID LVL SHORTWAVE...SEABREEZES
AND WARM TEMPS WITH DEWPTS IN THE MID 60S IS PRODUCING ATMOS RIPE
FOR SCATTERED SHRA/TS NE FL. SWLY FLOW IS GUIDING SHRA TOWARD JAX
METRO AREA AND BEACHES. THUS THE WEDGE IS SLOWLY RETREATING NWD.
HAVE ADJUSTED POPS UPWARD IN NE FL AND LOW CHANCE IN SE GA
REMAINDER OF AFTN.

TONIGHT THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NWD PLACING THE FORECAST
AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR THRU FRIDAY NIGHT. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
WILL PUSH INTO SE GA TONIGHT WITH LINGERING SLGT CHANCE ACRS THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT. EXPECT SEABREEZE ACTION TO BEGIN AROUND NOON
FRI AND HIGHEST POPS WILL BE ALONG THE E COAST. WITH THE FRONT N
OF AREA AND LACK OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL KEEP POPS 20-30% ATTM.
DISTURBANCES ARE APPEARING ON A REGULAR BASIS AND CANNOT RULE OUT
ANOTHER PASSING FRI AFTN DURING MAX HEATING AND IF SO POPS WILL
NEED TO BE RAISED. DEEP SWLY FLOW WILL INTENSIFY AS MEAN LAYER
RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER S FL RESULTING IN BREEZY OR LOCALLY WINDY
CONDITIONS.

SATURDAY WILL BE A MORE ACTIVE DAY AS UPPER TROUGH AND ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE AREA. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR AN
ORGANIZED BAND OF STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS DURING MAX HEATING OF THE
DAY. HAVE KEPT LIKELY POPS WITH COVERAGE INCREASING IN THE AFTN.

THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OVER THE AREA SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY
AS A SERIES OF WAVES MOVE ALONG THE FRONT. THIS WILL KEEP
UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER THE AREA AND A CHANCE OF RAIN OVER N FL.
WILL GO WITH N-S POP DISTRIBUTION FOR SUN OF 20% SE GA AND 30-40%
NE FL.

.LONG TERM...ALTHOUGH MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW SIMILARITIES THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK. THUS WILL GENERALLY STICK
WITH GFS SOLN AND HAVE MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO FCST. SFC WAVES
CONTINUE ALONG THE FRONT MON THEN BY TUES ANOTHER WEDGE WILL
ESTABLISH ALONG THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS BRINGING CLOUDY NELY
FLOW TO THE REGION. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BREAK DOWN WITH ELY FLOW
PREVAILING WED-THU. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE AOA NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE AT SSI WHERE LOW CIGS CONTINUE
JUST N OF A TROUGH. EXPECT LOW CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
EVENING AT SSI...THEN BEGIN TO LIFT SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AS TROUGH
ACROSS THE AREA BEGINS TO LIFT NWD. ELSEWHERE EXPECT TEMPO TS AS
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION POPS ACROSS ALL NE FL.

&&

.MARINE...HAVE ADJUSTED SCA TO ONLY THE OFFSHORE WATERS DUE CONTINUE
COMBINED SEAS NEAR 7 FT AT BUOY 41008 THROUGH 10 PM EDT. EXPECT A
RETURN TO SCA CONDITIONS LATE FRI AS SSW FLOW INCREASES IN ADVANCE
OF A COLD FRONT. THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY STALL ACROSS THE AREA
THIS WEEKEND...THEN IT WILL BE BRIDGE BY A RIDGE TO THE NORTH EARLY
NEXT WEEK WHICH MAY CREATE ANOTHER WEDGE SCENARIO. ONSHORE FLOW NEXT
WEEK WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN ELY SWELLS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  62  83  65  79 /  30  30  30  70
SSI  64  79  67  77 /  40  30  30  60
JAX  65  84  66  80 /  40  20  30  60
SGJ  66  83  68  79 /  40  30  30  60
GNV  63  85  65  82 /  30  20  30  60
OCF  64  85  65  82 /  30  20  20  60

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM FRIDAY TO 5 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE-FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE-ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ALTAMAHA
     SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

TRABERT/ENYEDI/KERNS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1240 PM EDT THU APR 3 2008

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-040900-
ALACHUA-APPLING-ATKINSON-BACON-BAKER-BRADFORD-BRANTLEY-
CAMDEN (COASTAL)-CAMDEN (INLAND)-CHARLTON-CLAY-CLINCH-COFFEE-
COLUMBIA-DUVAL-ECHOLS-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-GLYNN (COASTAL)-
GLYNN (INLAND)-HAMILTON-JEFF DAVIS-MARION-NASSAU-PIERCE-PUTNAM-
ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION-WARE-WAYNE-
1240 PM EDT THU APR 3 2008

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK AT AREA BEACHES...
...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

THE RIP CURRENT RISK WILL REMAIN ELEVATED TODAY DUE TO LINGERING
SWELLS.

THE INTERACTION OF A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY...DAYTIME HEATING AND THE
SEA BREEZES WILL ONCE AGAIN BRING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS...GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL...
AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE
STRONGER STORMS. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL TAPER OFF DURING THE
EVENING HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

THE RIP CURRENT RISK WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH FRIDAY DUE TO
LINGERING SWELLS.

THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL...AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE STRONGER STORMS. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STRONG OR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY
WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...
SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO SELF-ACTIVATE IF WARNINGS ARE ISSUED
FOR YOUR AREA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

ECZ/MKT

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
211 PM EDT THU APR 3 2008

FLZ032-033-031900-
CLAY-ST. JOHNS-
211 PM EDT THU APR 3 2008

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR EASTERN CLAY AND
WESTERN ST. JOHNS COUNTIES FOR STRONG WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND
EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING VALID UNTIL 300 PM EDT...

AT 211 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 3 MILES NORTHWEST OF PICOLATA...OR 10
MILES SOUTH OF FRUIT COVE...MOVING EAST AT 5 MPH. THIS STRONG
THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND PICOLATA THROUGH 300 PM
EDT. HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND
LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH
POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER
ON ROADWAYS AND MINOR FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

ENYEDI

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
249 PM EDT THU APR 3 2008

FLZ022-023-031930-
BAKER-COLUMBIA-
249 PM EDT THU APR 3 2008

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHWESTERN BAKER
AND EASTERN COLUMBIA COUNTIES FOR STRONG WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND
EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING VALID UNTIL 330 PM EDT...

AT 249 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 4 MILES NORTH OF LULU...OR 10 MILES EAST
OF LAKE CITY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 5 MPH. THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM
WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND LULU AND OLUSTEE THROUGH 330 PM EDT.
HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND
LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 35 TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH
POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER
ON ROADWAYS AND MINOR FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

ENYEDI