Severe Thunderstorm Warning 62, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
258 PM EDT TUE APR 1 2008

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY TRAVERSING THE AREA IN
OTHERWISE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE SE US. SMALL UPPER HIGH LOCATED E
OF THE BAHAMAS WITH ANOTHER RIDGE OVER MEXICO. SHORTWAVE...IN
CONCERT WITH WARM AND MOIST LOW LEVELS AND SOME DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING FROM EARLIER THICK CLOUD COVER PRODUCING ISOLD SHOWERS AND
A FEW TSTMS...MAINLY ACROSS INTERIOR SE GA. ACROSS THE AREA RANGE
FROM 1000-1500 J/KG. MODELS INDICATED SOME WEAK SUBSIDENCE ACROSS
NE FL THRU MOST OF THE DAY...BUT EVEN HERE A FEW SMALL SHOWERS
HAVE DEVELOPED. ATLC SEABREEZE AND GULF BREEZE HAVE INITIATED BUT
HAVE YET TO MAKE IT TOO FAR INLAND. SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM THE ATLC ACROSS THE GULF COAST WITH A COLD FRONT
STRETCHING FROM SE CANADA TO TX. TEMPS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE AREA WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID
60S.

.SHORT TERM...BEST FORCING FOR PRECIP THRU THE EVENING WILL BE THE
SHORTWAVE OVER SE GA POSSIBLY INTERACTING WITH THE ATLC SEABREEZE.
BEST CHANCES FOR TSTMS WILL BE NEAR BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS.
INCREASING CAPES AND LOW-LEVEL FORCING WILL CONTINUE TO BE
COUNTERED BY MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE SO THAT MOST CONVECTION WILL
REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK. THERE MAY BE SOME GUSTY WINDS IN AND STORMS
ALONG BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS.

PRECIP THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM WILL BE DOMINATED
MOSTLY BY LOW-LEVEL FORCING FROM SEABREEZE INTERACTIONS...OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES...AND THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. DUE TO THE LACK OF
MID AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE LOW SIDE OF
GUIDANCE POPS. MAX TEMPS WILL REACH INTO THE MID 80S ACROSS INLAND
AREAS ON WED WITH SLIGHT LOWER READINGS ON THU DUE TO A BIT MORE
CLOUD COVER.

.LONG TERM...HAVE MADE FEW CHANGES TO EXTENDED FCST...MAINLY TO
POP FIELDS. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL THRU THE PERIOD. NEXT COLD FRONT PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA SAT NIGHT...STALLING OVER THE S PORTION OF THE AREA THRU
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE EVENING. HAVE
INCLUDED VCSH SINCE SHRA ARE ALREADY ERUPTING ALONG THE SEA BREEZE
IN NE FL AND ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE IN SE GA. TS IS
POSSIBLE AT SSI LATER THIS AFTN BUT LIGHTNING HAS BEEN SPARSE AND
WILL ONLY INCLUDE CB. MVFR VSBY IN FOG IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT
AND EARLY WED MORN ESPECIALLY FL TAF SITES.

&&

.MARINE...

OFFSHORE SEAS ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING 6 TO 8 FEET AND THEY WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK DUE TO LONG PERIOD OCEAN SWELLS.
COMBINED SEAS UPWARDS OF 10 FEET CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
LEGS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A GRADUAL IMPROVING TREND THEREAFTER. SCA
HEADLINES DUE TO SEAS ARE IN PLACE FOR THE OFFSHORE LEGS THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  59  82  61  77 /  30  40  30  30
SSI  63  77  63  72 /  20  20  30  40
JAX  61  84  62  81 /  10  20  10  50
SGJ  62  80  64  80 /  10  10   0  40
GNV  60  85  61  85 /  10  30  20  50
OCF  61  86  61  85 /  10  30  30  40

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
     ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE-FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE-ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE.

&&

CARROLL/SHULER/TRABERT

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
357 PM EDT TUE APR 1 2008

GAZ136-012045-
WAYNE-
357 PM EDT TUE APR 1 2008

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR EASTERN WAYNE
COUNTY FOR STRONG WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING VALID
UNTIL 445 PM EDT...

AT 357 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 2 MILES WEST OF GARDI...MOVING EAST AT
10 MPH. THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND JESUP
THROUGH 445 PM EDT. HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE
EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

DEESE

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
630 PM EDT TUE APR 1 2008

GAZ154-012315-
COASTAL GLYNN-
630 PM EDT TUE APR 1 2008

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR EASTERN GLYNN
COUNTY FOR STRONG WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING VALID
UNTIL 715 PM EDT...

AT 631 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 3 MILES NORTHEAST OF COUNTRY CLUB
ESTATES...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH. THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL
ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND DOCK JUNCTION...COUNTRY CLUB ESTATES...BOYS
ESTATE...ST. SIMONS...LITTLE ST. SIMMONS ISLAND...GLYNN HAVEN AND SEA
ISLAND THROUGH 715 PM EDT. HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER...
EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH
CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND MINOR FLOODING OF LOW-LYING
AREAS.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

PETERSON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
712 PM EDT TUE APR 1 2008

GAZ153-154-165-166-020000-
COASTAL CAMDEN-COASTAL GLYNN-INLAND CAMDEN-INLAND GLYNN-
712 PM EDT TUE APR 1 2008

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTHEASTERN
CAMDEN AND SOUTHERN GLYNN COUNTIES FOR STRONG WINDS AND SMALL HAIL
VALID UNTIL 800 PM EDT...

AT 712 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 7 MILES WEST OF DOVER BLUFF...OR 8 MILES
NORTHEAST OF WOODBINE...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH. THIS STRONG
THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND BRUNSWICK...JEKYLL ISLAND
AND HIGH POINT THROUGH 800 PM EDT. HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN
DIAMETER AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH
POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

DEESE