Severe Thunderstorm Warning 359, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
153 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2008

.SHORT TERM...CONVECTION IS STARTING TO POP ACROSS THE JAX CWA THIS
HOUR AS TEMPS RISE TO CONVECTIVE TEMP VALUES IN THE UPPER 80S.
WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY WILL TRACK NNE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTN AND MERGE WITH THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE FRONT WHICH SHOULD MAKE IT INLAND TO ALONG OR JUST W OF THE
I-95 CORRIDOR. FREQ LIGHTNING AND PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS TODAY.

MEAN LAYER HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETROGRADE FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
TOWARD THE GOMEX THROUGH WED. A PREVAILING SW STEERING FLOW WILL
FOCUS THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF AFTN TSRA TOWARD EASTERN SECTIONS OF
OUR CWA. TONIGHT EXPECT DRIER AIR WITH PWATS BELOW 2 INCHES OVER THE
GOMEX TO MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA FOR TUE WHICH WILL TAKE AFTN POPS DOWN
ACROSS OUR FL ZONES TO THE CHANCE CATEGORY...WHILE MAINTAINING
LIKELY POPS ACROSS OUR GA ZONES WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE DEEPER AND
DPVA STRONGER AS THE REMNANTS OF FAY SLOWLY TRACK NNE TOWARD THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION. WED INTO THU A TRAILING PLUME OF MOISTURE ALONG A
WAKE TROUGH FROM THE REMNANTS OF FAY WILL SAG ACROSS OUR GA ZONES
WHICH...ALONG WITH THE SEA BREEZES...WILL ENHANCE AFTN CONVECTION.
MAIN SHORT TERM CONCERNS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS TUE (DRIER AIR ALOFT)
THEN RETURN TO FREQ LIGHTNING AND PERIODS OF HVY RA WED AND THU.

.LONG TERM...LATEST OPERATIONAL MEX GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE
A RETURN TO NEAR CLIMO TEMPS AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION IN THE
MID CHANCE RANGE OF 30-40%.

&&

.AVIATION...SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE REGION THRU THE EVENING...WITH IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY AT
TIMES. WILL CONTINUE THE TEMPO FOR APPROX 3 HOURS BETWEEN 18Z AND
23Z AT ALL SITES. SOME MVFR PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT DUE TO
WET GROUND ESPECIALLY AT GNV. OTHER SITES DID NOT EXPERIENCE FOG
LAST NIGHT AND WILL KEEP VFR CONDS FOR NOW.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY SOUTHERLY THIS WEEK AS
BERMUDA HIGH BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC. WIND SPEEDS
WILL BE NEAR 10 KT AND SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  71  89  71  88 /  30  60  50  60
SSI  75  86  74  86 /  30  40  30  40
JAX  73  89  73  89 /  30  50  30  40
SGJ  74  88  74  87 /  30  40  30  30
GNV  73  90  73  89 /  20  50  30  40
OCF  72  90  72  90 /  20  40  30  40

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

ENYEDI/TRABERT/KEEGAN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
510 AM EDT MON AUG 25 2008

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-261000-
ALACHUA-APPLING-ATKINSON-BACON-BAKER-BRADFORD-BRANTLEY-
CAMDEN (COASTAL)-CAMDEN (INLAND)-CHARLTON-CLAY-CLINCH-COFFEE-
COLUMBIA-DUVAL-ECHOLS-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-GLYNN (COASTAL)-
GLYNN (INLAND)-HAMILTON-JEFF DAVIS-MARION-NASSAU-PIERCE-PUTNAM-
ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION-WARE-WAYNE-
510 AM EDT MON AUG 25 2008

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

...RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
FLORIDA...
...MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS...

RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE SAINT MARYS RIVER...THE
SANTA FE RIVER AND BLACK CREEK IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA. REFER TO LOCAL
FLOOD WARNING PRODUCTS FOR DETAILS.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN
TODAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE AND EXCESSIVE RUNOFF
MAY CAUSE TEMPORARY FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
GUSTY WINDS OVER 40 MPH AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED WITH
THE STRONGEST STORMS.

A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED DUE TO CONTINUED
EASTERLY SWELLS AND PREVIOUS RIP CURRENT CHANNELS THAT DEVELOPED DUE
TO ROUGH SURF FROM FAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE MUCH
OF THIS WEEK DUE TO A LINGERING TROPICAL AIRMASS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS IN STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. RAIN
CHANCES MAY DECREASE BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ARE REQUESTED TO SELF-ACTIVATE IN THE EVENT OF WARNINGS BEING
ISSUED OR OCCURRENCE OF ADDITIONAL FLOODING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

CARROLL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1043 AM EDT MON AUG 25 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     TROPICAL STORM   6 ENE ARLINGTON         30.37N 81.51W
08/23/2008                   DUVAL              FL   NWS EMPLOYEE

            THE TOP PORTION OF A LARGE OAK TREE BROKE OFF AND PUNCHED
            A HOLE THROUGH THE ROOF OF A HOUSE IN THE HIDDEN HILLS
            SUBDIVISION IN JACKSONVILLE.

&&

MTRABERT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
225 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2008

GAZ132-251915-
COFFEE-
225 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2008

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTHWESTERN
COFFEE COUNTY FOR EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING VALID UNTIL 315 PM EDT...

AT 225 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 4 MILES NORTHEAST OF AMBROSE...MOVING
NORTH AT 15 MPH. THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS
AROUND BROXTON...AMBROSE AND PRIDGEN THROUGH 315 PM EDT. EXCESSIVE
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED. POSTPONE OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES PROMPTLY. GO QUICKLY INSIDE A COMPLETELY ENCLOSED
BUILDING. UNPLUG ELECTRONIC DEVICES AND APPLIANCES AS THEY ARE
SUSCEPTIBLE TO POWER SURGES AND MAY BE DAMAGED BY NEARBY LIGHTNING
STRIKES.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

ENYEDI

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
251 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2008

FLZ033-038-251915-
FLAGLER-ST. JOHNS-
251 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2008

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR EASTERN FLAGLER
AND SOUTHEASTERN ST. JOHNS COUNTIES FOR EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING VALID
UNTIL 315 PM EDT...

AT 251 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 5 MILES WEST OF
PALM COAST TO 13 MILES SOUTH OF FLAGLER BEACH...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
19 MPH. THESE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND
ESPANOLA...BUNNELL...PALM COAST...FLAGLER BEACH AND CRESCENT BEACH
THROUGH 315 PM EDT. EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING CAN BE
EXPECTED. POSTPONE OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES PROMPTLY. GO QUICKLY INSIDE A
COMPLETELY ENCLOSED BUILDING. UNPLUG ELECTRONIC DEVICES AND
APPLIANCES AS THEY ARE SUSCEPTIBLE TO POWER SURGES AND MAY BE DAMAGED
BY NEARBY LIGHTNING STRIKES. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADWAYS AND MINOR FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

TRABERT

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