Severe Thunderstorm Warning 348, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
221 PM EDT THU AUG 7 2008

..SHORT TERM...THUNDERSTORMS ARE QUICKLY DEVELOPING ALONG AND NORTH
OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR WITH SOME STORMS BECOME SEVERE. SHOULD BE A
BUSY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES HAVE
BEEN REACHED COUPLED WITH APPROACH OF MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES...WITH
CONCERNS OF DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...FREQUENT CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING
AND LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL. GREATEST COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS
THE REMAINDER OF TODAY IS EXPECTED NORTH OF KGNV-KSGJ LINE...WITH
CONVECTION LIKELY PERSISTING WELL AFTER SUNSET.

WET/UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AS SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES/SHORTWAVE TROUGHS/ CONTINUE TO CARVE A FULL SCALE
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...FORCING SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA. HAVE MAINTAINED LIKELY POPS
ACROSS THE BOARD DUE TO MOIST TROPICAL CONDITIONS INTERACTING
WITH MYRIAD OF LIFTING MECHANISMS.

CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO SLOWLY IMPROVE FROM THE NORTH FRIDAY
NIGHT IN EARNEST AS MEAN LAYER TROUGH BEGINS TO WORK SOUTHWARD
OVER THE AREA...WITH NORTHWEST/DRIER/FLOW REGIME DEVELOPING IN ITS
WAKE. SATURDAY...WILL CONTINUE N-S DISTRIBUTION OF POPS...
RANGING FROM 10 PERCENT OR LESS NORTH OF U.S. HIGHWAY 82 IN
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TO AROUND 60 PERCENT ACROSS MARION COUNTY AND
EXTREME SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF PUTNAM AND FLAGLER COUNTIES WHERE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY RESIDE.

SUNDAY...DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF A
KGNV-KSGJ LINE. WILL MAINTAIN LOW-END POPS FOR AREAS SOUTH OF
THIS LINE DUE TO PROXIMITY TO FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER NORTH-CENTRAL
FLORIDA...ALTHOUGH DEEPENING NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME WILL CERTAINLY
LIMIT COVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...RETURN TO SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS WITH DEEPENING
SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME PROVIDING INFLUX OF MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY.

&&

.AVIATION...UPPER TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA LATE TODAY
WHICH SHOULD ENHANCE THE TSRA POTENTIAL OVER PREVIOUS DAYS. CURRENT
TERMINALS INCLUDE VCTS WORDING FOR THIS AFTERNOON....BUT MAY NEED TO
INCLUDE TEMPO GROUPS AS ATMOSPHERE IS QUITE MOIST AND UNSTABLE. WILL
DEFER INCLUSION OF TEMPO GROUPS UNTIL 18Z PACKAGE.

&&

.MARINE...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE NEXT 36 TO 48
HOURS AS SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. STILL LOOKS AS
THOUGH VALUES WILL BE LARGELY BELOW SCEC CRITERIA ALTHOUGH CANNOT
RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OVER THE OFFSHORE PORTION THU NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL EASE AS TROUGH SLIDES THROUGH
THE WATERS BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  74  90  69  92 /  30  60  30  10
SSI  77  86  72  87 /  30  70  30  20
JAX  75  90  72  90 /  20  70  30  30
SGJ  76  87  72  86 /  20  60  30  40
GNV  74  88  71  88 /  20  70  40  40
OCF  74  88  72  87 /  20  70  40  60

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

ZAPPE/ENYEDI/