Severe Thunderstorm Warning 293, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
145 PM EDT SUN JUL 6 2008

.SHORT TERM...FLORIDA WEST COAST SEABREEZE FIRING UP WITH STORMS
MOVING SLOWLY TO THE NE. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH HEATING AND AS STORMS ENCOUNTER THE EAST COAST
SEABREEZE. SE GEORGIA QUIET SO FAR DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES. SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS AL AND NW GA IS
SETTING OFF STORMS TO OUR NW WHICH WILL LIKELY AFFECT SE GA BY
EVENING. WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH END SCATTERED TO LIKELY POPS FOR
THIS EVENING. UPPER TROUGHING WILL LIFT TO THE NE ON MONDAY BUT
TRAILING VORT LOBE WILL LINGER OVER SE GA ALONG WITH HIGH
PWATS/INSTABILITY. THIS WILL KEEP POPS ON THE HIGH SIDE INTO
MIDWEEK.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...UPPER HIGH WILL BUILD WEST
ACROSS CENTRAL FL FROM THE ATLANTIC INTO THE GULF BY NEXT WEEKEND.
GFS PROGS PWATS TO REMAIN NEAR 2 INCHES SO DIURNAL CONVECTION
EXPECTED TO BE AT LEAST IN SCATTERED RANGE AS MEX GUIDANCE INDICATES.

&&

.AVIATION...NUMEROUS TSRA EXPECTED THROUGH 02-03Z NEAR ALL SITES
AGAIN TODAY WITH MICROBURSTS THE MAIN CONCERN AS WELL AS NUMEROUS
OUTFLOWS CAUSING VARIED WIND SHIFTS AT PORTS. MVFR BR POSSIBLE
AROUND DAYBREAK MON DUE TO ABUNDANT GROUND MOISTURE. ONCE AGAIN TSRA
EXPECTED TO BE IN VC OF ALL SITES MON AFTN/EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...NO HEADLINES. NOCTURNAL SLY SURGES ARE EXPECTED OFFSHORE
EACH NIGHT WITH SEAS 2-4 FT. SSE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SSW BY
MIDWEEK AS RIDGE CENTER REBUILDS NWD FROM S FL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  71  89  69  91 /  60  60  60  40
SSI  75  87  75  87 /  50  60  60  50
JAX  71  89  70  89 /  50  60  60  60
SGJ  73  86  73  87 /  50  70  60  50
GNV  70  90  69  90 /  50  70  60  60
OCF  71  91  71  89 /  40  70  60  60

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

ZIBURA/ENYEDI/WALKER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
445 AM EDT SUN JUL 6 2008

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-061600-
ALACHUA-APPLING-ATKINSON-BACON-BAKER-BRADFORD-BRANTLEY-
CAMDEN (COASTAL)-CAMDEN (INLAND)-CHARLTON-CLAY-CLINCH-COFFEE-
COLUMBIA-DUVAL-ECHOLS-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-GLYNN (COASTAL)-
GLYNN (INLAND)-HAMILTON-JEFF DAVIS-MARION-NASSAU-PIERCE-PUTNAM-
ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION-WARE-WAYNE-
445 AM EDT SUN JUL 6 2008

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON OVER
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA DUE TO A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS GEORGIA
AND SOME ACCELERATION IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IN THAT AREA. LATER IN
THE DAY THE ATLANTIC AND GULF OF MEXICO SEA BREEZE FRONTS SHOULD
COLLIDE OVER THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF NORTH FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA LEADING TO A ROUND OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE INTERIOR
AREAS. THE STEERING FLOW OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL BE WEAK WITH
STORMS DRIFTING TOWARD THE WEST.

THE STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL...FREQUENT DEADLY
LIGHTNING...AND GUSTY WINDS. AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM IS POSSIBLE...
WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS FROM LOCALIZED MICROBURSTS.
HEAVY RAINFALL CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED DUE TO SLOW STORM MOTION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

NORMAL AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
THROUGH SATURDAY. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF STRONG TO ISOLATED
PULSE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

SANDRIK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
233 PM EDT SUN JUL 6 2008

FLZ023-030-GAZ150-164-061915-
BAKER-CHARLTON-UNION-WARE-
233 PM EDT SUN JUL 6 2008

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR EASTERN UNION...
BAKER...SOUTHERN CHARLTON AND SOUTHEASTERN WARE COUNTIES FOR STRONG
WINDS AND EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING VALID UNTIL 315 PM EDT...

AT 233 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED 3 MILES EAST OF OLUSTEE...OR 13 MILES
NORTHWEST OF RAIFORD...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 13 MPH. THESE STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND OLUSTEE...LAKE BUTLER...
JOHNSTOWN...ELLERBEE...SANDERSON...TAYLOR...MACCLENNY AND GLEN SAINT
MARY THROUGH 315 PM EDT. EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND
GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR
DAMAGE. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND
MINOR FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

ZIBURA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
311 PM EDT SUN JUL 6 2008

GAZ150>152-062000-
BRANTLEY-PIERCE-WARE-
311 PM EDT SUN JUL 6 2008

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR WESTERN
BRANTLEY...CENTRAL WARE AND SOUTHERN PIERCE COUNTIES FOR STRONG
WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING VALID UNTIL 400 PM EDT...

AT 311 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 5 MILES SOUTH OF WAYCROSS...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH. THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS
AROUND WAYCROSS...BLACKSHEAR AND HOBOKEN THROUGH 400 PM EDT. HAIL UP
TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING
AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE
MINOR DAMAGE. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS AND MINOR FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

ZAPPE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
312 PM EDT SUN JUL 6 2008

FLZ024-GAZ164>166-062000-
CHARLTON-COASTAL CAMDEN-INLAND CAMDEN-NASSAU-
312 PM EDT SUN JUL 6 2008

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTHEASTERN
CHARLTON...NORTHERN NASSAU AND SOUTHWESTERN CAMDEN COUNTIES FOR
STRONG WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING VALID UNTIL 400 PM
EDT...

AT 312 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 11 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF FOLKSTON TO CALLAHAN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH. THESE STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND CALLAHAN...HILLIARD...
HOMELAND...FOLKSTON...KINGS FERRY AND KINGSLAND THROUGH 400 PM EDT.
HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND
LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH
POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER
ON ROADWAYS AND MINOR FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

ZAPPE

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