Severe Thunderstorm Warning 287, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
206 PM EDT SAT JUL 5 2008

...INCREASED RAIN CHANCES SUN-TUE...

.SHORT TERM...UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER CENTRAL GA IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS AIDING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN
THE VICINITY OF A SURFACE CONVERGENCE ZONE WHERE SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY HAS INCREASED SUBSTANTIALLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH CAPES
NEAR 2500-3500 J/KG WITH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 90S AND DEW PTS IN THE
LOW 70S. MUCH QUIETER CONDITIONS EXIST OVER FL WHERE AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS BETWEEN THE APPROACHING TROUGH UPSTREAM AND AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER S FL. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...EXPECT THE BEST CHANCES OF PRECIP OVER GA AND STILL A
DECENT CHANCE OF RAIN WITH THE SEA BREEZE MERGER LATE THIS
AFTN/EVENING ACROSS OUR INLAND FL ZONES. PRECIP WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
OVER NIGHT OVER OUR GA ZONES...ALTHOUGH A DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY IS EXPECTED DUE TO LOSS OF DAYTIME INSTABILITY.

A WET PERIOD BEGINS FOR OUR AREA TOMORROW THROUGH TUE WITH PERIODS
OF HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY MON.

TOMORROW MOISTURE CONVERGES FROM OUR WNW AS THE UPPER TROUGH EDGES
CLOSER AND MOISTURE FROM OUR S EDGES NWD AS THE UPPER LOW OVER S FL
LIFTS NNE. INCREASED MOISTURE...ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND DIFFLUENCE
DUE TO UPPER TROUGHING DIGGING UPSTREAM OF OUR AREA...AND SURFACE
CONVERGENCE PER THE AFOREMENTIONED CONVERGENCE ZONE AND SEA BREEZES
ALL SUPPORT LIKELY POPS FOR THE JAX CWA SUN WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES
OVER OUR GA ZONES IN THE AFTN.

THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES THIS FORECAST CYCLE WILL BE ADVERTISED ON
MON FOR OUR ENTIRE CWA AS THE UPPER TROUGH ADVANCES TOWARD THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD WITH COOLER TEMPS ALOFT ENHANCING INSTABILITY MORE
OVER OUR CWA. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR FILTERS OVER THE AREA MON NIGHT SO
EXPECT A TEMPO DECREASE IN POPS.

TUE MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER SURGE OVER MOISTURE RISING N UP THE FL
PENINSULA PER AN EASTERLY WAVE. THE NAM ACTUALLY DEEPENS A SFC LOW
IN THE GOMEX WHILE THE GFS IS MORE CONSERVATIVE AND SIMPLY INDICATES
INCREASED MOISTURE OVER OUR AREA AND WEAK INVERTED TROUGHING AS THE
WAVE ROTATES NORTH AROUND THE BERMUDA RIDGE. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE
GFS WITH THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE LIKELY RANGE FOR MOST OF OUR CWA
TUE AFTN WITH THE HIGHEST NEAR THE I-75 CORRIDOR DUE TO 1000-700 MB
SSE STEERING FLOW.

MAX TEMPS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE HELD NEAR 90 DUE TO CLOUD COVER
WITH WITH MINS ON THE WARM SIDE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. PATCHY GROUND
FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT WHERE PRECIP RECENTLY FELL.

.LONG TERM...WED THROUGH SAT...THE BERMUDA RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER S
FL WED AND SHIFT ITS AXIS NORTHWARD THROUGH SAT TO POSITION OVER N
FL. POPS WILL GRADUALLY RETURN TO NEAR CLIMO VALUES IN THE 35-45%
RANGE MAINLY DUE TO DIURNALLY CONVECTION. STEERING FLOW WILL BE
LIGHT OVER OUR FL ZONES AND WLY OVER GA. TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE
LOWER 90S EACH DAY AND NEAR 70 FOR MINS.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR WITH CB AND VCTS THROUGH 01-02Z ALL
SITES. HAVE INDICATED TEMPO DUE TO TS AT SSI THROUGH 22Z. INTRODUCED
VCSH ALL SITES SUN.

&&

.MARINE...NO HEADLINES. NOCTURNAL SLY SURGES WILL DECREASE AROUND
SUNRISE THEN ONSHORE WILL INCREASE WITH THE SEA BREEZE NEAR THE
COAST BY LATE MORN/EARLY AFTN. SLY WINDS 10-15 KTS AND SEAS 2-4 FT
WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  71  89  71  88 /  40  70  40  60
SSI  74  87  76  86 /  20  50  40  60
JAX  73  90  73  87 /  30  60  40  60
SGJ  73  88  75  85 /  20  50  40  50
GNV  71  90  72  88 /  40  60  40  70
OCF  71  91  72  89 /  30  60  40  60

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

ENYEDI

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
955 AM EDT SAT JUL 5 2008

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-052200-
ALACHUA-APPLING-ATKINSON-BACON-BAKER-BRADFORD-BRANTLEY-
CAMDEN (COASTAL)-CAMDEN (INLAND)-CHARLTON-CLAY-CLINCH-COFFEE-
COLUMBIA-DUVAL-ECHOLS-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-GLYNN (COASTAL)-
GLYNN (INLAND)-HAMILTON-JEFF DAVIS-MARION-NASSAU-PIERCE-PUTNAM-
ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION-WARE-WAYNE-
955 AM EDT SAT JUL 5 2008

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

ISOLATED MID-AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED ALONG THE EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE AS IT MOVES WELL INLAND. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME
A LITTLE MORE NUMEROUS AS THIS BOUNDARY COLLIDES WITH THE WEST
COAST SEA BREEZE OVER INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND
NORTH FLORIDA. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST AT 10 MPH...
POSSIBLY REACHING COASTAL COUNTIES BEFORE DIMINISHING DURING THE
EVENING. THE STRONGER STORMS WILL PRODUCE SMALL HAIL...FREQUENT
DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND GUSTY WINDS. AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM IS
POSSIBLE...WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS FROM LOCALIZED
MICROBURSTS. HEAVY RAINFALL CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED DUE TO SLOW STORM
MOTION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

INCREASED MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO HIGHER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE STRONG OVER PORTIONS
OF THE SUWANNEE VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA ON SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

WOLF

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