Severe Thunderstorm Warning 280, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
244 PM EDT FRI JUL 4 2008

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

STEADILY INCREASING RAIN CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS LIGHT AND VARIABLE SFC TO 500MB FLOW BECOMES SOUTH AT 15
KNOTS AND MORE MOIST BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. SCTD TSTMS WITH 30-50%
POPS ARE EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON TODAY WITH VERY
SLOW SEA BREEZES MOVING INLD BUT THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD
SETTLE DOWN BY SUNSET. OTHERWISE POPS WILL REMAIN IN THE 30-50%
RANGE ON SATURDAY THEN INCREASE INTO THE 50-60% RANGE ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY ALTHOUGH I HAVE CAPPED THEM AT 54% TO STAY WITHIN
COLLABORATION THRESHOLDS WITH OTHER OFFICES. SLOW MOVING ACTIVITY
WILL ENHANCE THE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS AND COOL 500MB TEMPS WILL KEEP THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG
WINDS AND HAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NEAR NORMAL TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE WITH HIGHS ARND 90 AND LOWS NEAR 70.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

DEEP AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ON TUE AND WED WILL WEAKEN AND BE
REPLACED BY STRONGER RIDGING AND DRIER AIR ALOFT AND THIS WILL
LEAD TO 50-60% POPS ON TUE/WED DECREASING TO 30-50% ON THU/FRI.
TEMPS AGAIN WILL CONTINUE VERY CLOSE TO CLIMO VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...HAVE PUT IN VCTS AND TEMPO TSRA FOR TAFS SITES AS
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG INLAND MOVING SEABREEZES.
ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE AROUND 00Z WITH VFR TO PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF
SHOWER ACTIVITY.

&&

.MARINE...QUIET CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS SURFACE
RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE WATERS. LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS AT NIGHT WILL
SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST DUE TO AFTERNOON SEABREEZES. SEAS WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY IN 1 TO 3 FOOT RANGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  92  69  93  71 /  40  20  40  40
SSI  86  73  88  74 /  30  10  30  20
JAX  89  70  91  72 /  40  10  40  20
SGJ  85  71  89  72 /  40  10  30  20
GNV  90  69  92  70 /  50  20  50  20
OCF  88  69  91  70 /  50  30  50  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

HESS/ZIBURA/KEEGAN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
245 PM EDT FRI JUL 4 2008

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-050945-
HAMILTON-SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-NASSAU-DUVAL-UNION-BRADFORD-CLAY-
ST JOHNS-GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION-COFFEE-
JEFF DAVIS-BACON-APPLING-WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-BRANTLEY-
INLAND GLYNN-COASTAL GLYNN-ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-
COASTAL CAMDEN-
245 PM EDT FRI JUL 4 2008

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY WITH
THE GREATEST COVERAGE TO BE SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR AND
OVER INLAND PORTIONS. ALTHOUGH ISOLATED SEVERS WEATHER IS EXPECTED IN
THE FROM OF LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLE DOWNBURSTS...HEAVY RAINFALL
CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN CONCERN DUE TO SLOW STORM MOVEMENT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

INCREASED MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO HIGHER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BY THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

DEESE/HESS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
516 PM EDT FRI JUL 4 2008

FLZ036-042200-
ALACHUA-
516 PM EDT FRI JUL 4 2008

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR WESTERN ALACHUA
COUNTY FOR STRONG WINDS AND EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING VALID UNTIL 600 PM
EDT...

AT 516 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 3 MILES SOUTH OF NEWBERRY...OR 11 MILES
NORTH OF BRONSON...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 8 MPH. THIS STRONG
THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND NEWBERRY THROUGH 600 PM
EDT. EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS UP TO 45
MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE. HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND MINOR FLOODING OF
LOW-LYING AREAS.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

ZIBURA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
549 PM EDT FRI JUL 4 2008

FLZ040-042230-
MARION-
549 PM EDT FRI JUL 4 2008

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR CENTRAL MARION
COUNTY FOR STRONG WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING VALID
UNTIL 630 PM EDT...

AT 549 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 4 MILES SOUTH OF
BURBANK TO 3 MILES SOUTH OF SUMMERFIELD...EXPANDING NORTH. THESE
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND
SUMMERFIELD...SPARR...SILVER SPRINGS
SHORES...SANTOS...OCALA...CITRA...BURBANK...BELLEVIEW...ANTHONY AND
LAKE WEIR THROUGH 630 PM EDT. HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN
DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45
TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

SHULER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
608 PM EDT FRI JUL 4 2008

FLZ036-037-042300-
ALACHUA-PUTNAM-
608 PM EDT FRI JUL 4 2008

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR EXTREME EASTERN
ALACHUA AND EXTREME WESTERN PUTNAM COUNTIES FOR STRONG WINDS...SMALL
HAIL AND EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING VALID UNTIL 700 PM EDT...

AT 608 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 2 MILES EAST OF LOCHLOOSA...OR 7 MILES
NORTHEAST OF CITRA...MOVING SLOWLY NORTH. THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM
WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND LOCHLOOSA THROUGH 700 PM EDT. HAIL UP
TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING
AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE
MINOR DAMAGE. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS AND MINOR FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

ZAPPE

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
647 PM EDT FRI JUL 4 2008

FLZ022-023-042330-
BAKER-COLUMBIA-
647 PM EDT FRI JUL 4 2008

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR EXTREME WESTERN
BAKER AND NORTHEASTERN COLUMBIA COUNTIES FOR STRONG WINDS...SMALL
HAIL AND EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING VALID UNTIL 730 PM EDT...

AT 647 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 16 MILES NORTHEAST OF LAKE CITY...WITH
LITTLE MOVEMENT. THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
RURAL AREAS THROUGH 730 PM EDT. HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN
DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45
TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE. HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND MINOR
FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

ZAPPE

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