Severe Thunderstorm Warning 249, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
233 PM EDT THU JUN 26 2008

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...SCTD TSTM ACTIVITY SHOULD
FILL-IN ACRS THE FORECAST AREA WITH ISOLD TO SCTD STRONG TSTMS
POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACRS MARION COUNTY AND THE SRN PORTION AS BOTH
SBRZS SHOULD MAKE THEIR WAY ACRS WITH GOOD CONVERGENCE THERE.
OTHERWISE CONVECTION WILL WIND DOWN AFTER SUNSET AND END BY
MIDNIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIP SOUTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA AND A VERY MOIST WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
SET-UP OVER THE REGION WITH 1000-700MB FLOW INCREASING TO 15 TO
25 KNOTS OFF THE NERN GOMEX AND THIS WILL SET UP MORNING TSTMS
OVER THE BIG BEND REGION THAT WILL TRACK ACRS THE FORECAST AREA
AND EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TRAINING OF CELLS WILL PROMOTE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...SPECIALLY OVER THE INLD NERN FLORIDA PORTION. ABUNDANT
RAINFALL AND CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 80S EXCEPT FOR LOWER 90S WHERE PCPN HOLDS OFF UNTIL LATE
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL AND WHICH RUN YOU CHOOSE WHETHER THE MID
LEVEL TROF AXIS WITH DRIER AIR BEHIND IT WILL MAKE IT INTO SERN GA
IS UP FOR GRABS. THE LATEST TREND KEEPS THE FORECAST AREA IN
FAIRLY MOIST SWLY FLOW WITH SCTD TO NUMEROUS TSTM ACTIVITY EACH
DAY WITH MAX TEMPS REMAINING NEAR NORMAL IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S.

&&

.AVIATION...CURRENT OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A SUBSTANTIAL DRY SLOT
OVER THE FLORIDA TERMINALS AT THE SURFACE. THIS WILL DELAY THE ONSET
OF ANY TSRA ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL PUSH BACK THE TEMPOS
UNTIL THE 21Z-00Z TIMEFRAME FOR THIS PACKAGE. WITH THE SEABREEZE
MOVING INLAND...THIS DRY SLOT SHOULD BEGIN TO DISSIPATE AND ALLOW
FOR STRONG TO SEVERE ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP. STILL TOO ISOLATED TO
INCLUDE STRONG WINDS OR HAIL IN THE TAFS BUT TERMINALS WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR POSSIBLE AMENDMENTS. ACTIVITY SHOULD BE
EARLIER DEVELOPING FOR FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER KGNV WHERE I WILL
INDICATE BKN030 AFT 12Z.

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SINK TO THE SOUTH ALLOWING FOR
A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
WITH THE GRADIENT TIGHTENING AND NOCTURNAL SURGES BECOMING
STRONGER...SOME SCEC MAY BE NEEDED BEGINNING FRIDAY EVENING. THE
SEABREEZE WILL INTERRUPT THE FLOW EACH AFTERNOON...MAINLY ALONG THE
NEARSHORE PORTIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  68  91  69  87 /  20  50  30  70
SSI  74  88  74  85 /  20  40  30  60
JAX  70  90  71  89 /  30  50  40  60
SGJ  71  87  72  88 /  30  50  30  60
GNV  68  88  70  88 /  40  70  50  70
OCF  68  88  70  90 /  30  70  30  70

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

HESS/DEESE/KERNS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
951 AM EDT THU JUN 26 2008

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-271000-
HAMILTON-SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-NASSAU-DUVAL-UNION-BRADFORD-CLAY-
ST JOHNS-GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION-COFFEE-
JEFF DAVIS-BACON-APPLING-WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-BRANTLEY-
INLAND GLYNN-COASTAL GLYNN-ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-
COASTAL CAMDEN-
951 AM EDT THU JUN 26 2008

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

...SCATTERED STRONG AND ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. THESE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY WINDS...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. IF
CAUGHT OUTSIDE DURING LIGHTNING STORMS...FIND SHELTER IN A
BUILDING OR CAR. MARINERS SHOULD BE ALERT FOR THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING OFF THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE ACTIVITY
TODAY WILL LEAD TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND MINOR FLOODING IN SOME
AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED
EACH DAY. ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS...HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO SELF-ACTIVATE IF WARNINGS ARE
ISSUED IN YOUR AREA. PLEASE RELAY ANY DAMAGE REPORTS TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER OFFICE IN JACKSONVILLE OR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

MKT/HESS

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