Severe Thunderstorm Warning 210, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
319 PM EDT SUN JUN 15 2008

.SHORT TERM...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD AS
THEY MET RESISTANCE FROM THE SEA BREEZE. HEAVY RAIN HAS OCCURRED
WITH PWATS NEAR 2 INCHES. CLOUD COVER OVER THE INTERIOR FROM GNV
TO ALMA HAS DELAYED ONSET OF CONVECTION BUT RECENT RADAR SCANS
SHOW THE GULF COAST BREEZE IS BECOMING MORE ACTIVE FROM LIVE OAK
TO OCALA AND SCT STORMS ARE DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IN SE GA.

A SHORTWAVE IS SITUATED ALONG THE COAST FL PANHANDLE COASTLINE. AS
THIS FEATURE MOVES EASTWARD THRU THE EVENING...AN AXIS OF
VORTICITY WILL STRETCH FROM THE GA COAST TO APALACHEE BAY. THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOT EXPECTED TO BUDGE FOR A WHILE AND MORE
DISTURBANCES WILL PASS THRU THE BASE OF THE TROUGH PROVIDING
LIKELY RAIN CHANCES FOR MOST OF THE AREA AGAIN MONDAY AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT WASHES OUT TO OUR NORTH. THEN THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO LIFT NE OF THE AREA MON NIGHT AND DRIER AIR MOVE IN FROM THE NW
ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER PWATS WILL REMAIN HIGH FOR THE SRN PORTION AND
WILL GO WITH 40-50 PCT POPS TUE AFTN IN NE FL MAINLY FROM SEA
BREEZE INTERACTIONS. ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW BUT
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED (PWATS LESS THAN 1.5 INCHES) AND WILL
KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS IN SE GA.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH
FRIDAY...BRINGING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION IN THE NWLY FLOW
ALOFT. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE REDUCED WITH LESS THAN 20 PCT IN SE GA
AND LOW CHANCE SOUTH OF I-75. BY THE WEEKEND ANOTHER SERIES OF
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES IS POSSIBLE AS PROGGED BY THE LATEST GFS.
TIMING WILL UNDOUBTEDLY CHANGE DURING THE WEEK AND WILL KEEP
CHANCE POPS AREA-WIDE FOR SATURDAY. MEX GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MINS
WILL BE A TAD COOLER THAN CLIMO AND MAX TEMPS NEAR CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION...TEMPO IFR STILL POSSIBLE AT ALL SITES THROUGH THIS
EVENING DUE TO +TSRA. MICROBURSTS WILL CONTINUE NEAR TERMINALS SO
WILL CONTINUE TO VRB WINDS AND GUSTS UP TO 35 KTS POSSIBLE. TEMPO
MVFR IN BR NEAR SUNRISE ESPECIALLY WHERE RAINS FALL TODAY. ANOTHER
ROUND OF CONVECTION POSSIBLE TOMORROW.

&&

.MARINE...NO HEADLINES ANTICIPATED. PREVAILING OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TUE AS A WEAK FRONT STALLS AND BECOMES DIFFUSE OVER
THE AREA. WED HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD OVER THE REGION FROM THE NW
CONTINUING OFFSHORE FLOW. SLY SURGES POSSIBLE AT NIGHT WITH SPEEDS
NEAR 15 KTS. SEAS 3 FT OR LESS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  69  89  70  94 /  70  60  30  20
SSI  74  86  74  89 /  60  60  40  20
JAX  70  89  71  92 /  60  60  50  40
SGJ  72  86  73  89 /  60  60  50  50
GNV  68  89  70  92 /  60  60  50  50
OCF  69  90  70  91 /  60  60  50  50

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

TRABERT/ENYEDI

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
500 AM EDT SUN JUN 15 2008

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-161000-
ALACHUA-APPLING-ATKINSON-BACON-BAKER-BRADFORD-BRANTLEY-
CAMDEN (COASTAL)-CAMDEN (INLAND)-CHARLTON-CLAY-CLINCH-COFFEE-
COLUMBIA-DUVAL-ECHOLS-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-GLYNN (COASTAL)-
GLYNN (INLAND)-HAMILTON-JEFF DAVIS-MARION-NASSAU-PIERCE-PUTNAM-
ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION-WARE-WAYNE-
500 AM EDT SUN JUN 15 2008

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PRODUCE NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA BY AFTERNOON. THE STORMS WILL PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING DUE TO A SLOW EASTWARD
MOTION.  ALSO...STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES
CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THAT WILL
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED AT THIS TIME.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

MZ

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