Severe Thunderstorm Warning 196, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
242 PM EDT WED JUN 11 2008

.SHORT TERM...MID LAYER TROUGH IS LOCATED ACROSS NORTH FL WHILE
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SITUATED OFFSHORE OF NE FL. SURFACE
ANALYSIS PLACES A WEAK FRONT AND BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
CENTRAL GA. THE FIRST CONVECTION FIRED BENEATH THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH AND CONTINUES TO EXPAND IN THIS REGION. STORMS ARE MOVING
SLOWLY DUE TO A WEAK STEERING FLOW. ALSO DUE TO LESS ATMOSPHERIC
SHEAR THE THREAT OF HAIL IS NOT AS GREAT TODAY AS IT WAS TUES.

THE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO DRIFT FARTHER OFFSHORE BUT CONTINUE TO
MEANDER AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC THRU THE END OF THE WEEK.
A MEAN LAYER (1000-500 MB) TROUGH WILL STRETCH ACROSS THE REGION
TO THE BAHAMAS BY THURSDAY MORNING THEN SLOWLY RETROGRADE ACRS THE
FL PENINSULA THRU FRIDAY. COMBINE THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH WITH SEA
BREEZES AND SCT TO NUMEROUS TSTMS WILL OCCUR AGAIN DURING EACH
AFTERNOON. COVERAGE WILL BE AREA WIDE THURSDAY AND BY FRIDAY THE
BEST CHANCE WILL BE NEAR THE I-75 CORRIDOR. EXPECT PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THU-FRI THEN PARTIAL CLEARING FRIDAY NIGHT AS
MEAN LAYER RIDGE REPLACES THE TROUGH. TEMPS WILL HOVER NEAR CLIMO
THRU THE WEEK.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
A WEAK RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE AREA SATURDAY BUT WILL BE
NUDGED INTO THE ATLANTIC AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS PUSH
THRU THE LOCAL AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. LATEST GFS SHOWS A LOW
IN THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO SUNDAY AND MOVES IT OVER FL MON/TUE AND
THESE FEATURES WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SOUTH PORTION. A FINAL SHORT WAVE WOULD USHER A COLD FRONT INTO
THE AREA BY WED BUT LACK CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO. THERE ARE
ENOUGH SIMILARITIES TO PREVIOUS MODEL RUN AND HAVE MADE NO
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GRIDS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...HAVE INCLUDED TS AT ALL SITES THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH
EXTENDED TEMPO TS AT GNV THROUGH 0Z. MVFR POSSIBLE NEAR SUNRISE WHERE
PRECIP FALLS TODAY...ESPECIALLY AT GNV WHERE +TSRA IS ALREADY
OCCURRING.

&&

.MARINE...NO HEADLINES. LIGHT SSE WINDS 10-15 KTS AND SEAS 2-3 WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SAT. SAT NIGHT A WEAK FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA
AND THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY STALL OR BECOME DIFFUSE OVER THE
WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL LIKELY BRING A LIGHT AND VRB WIND
PATTERN MON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  72  91  69  91 /  30  50  20  30
SSI  74  87  75  87 /  20  40  10  20
JAX  70  88  70  89 /  20  50  20  30
SGJ  71  85  72  85 /  20  50  20  30
GNV  69  90  69  90 /  40  60  30  50
OCF  70  89  69  90 /  40  60  30  60

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

TRABERT/ENYEDI/KERNS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
116 PM EDT WED JUN 11 2008

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-121000-
ALACHUA-APPLING-ATKINSON-BACON-BAKER-BRADFORD-BRANTLEY-
CAMDEN (COASTAL)-CAMDEN (INLAND)-CHARLTON-CLAY-CLINCH-COFFEE-
COLUMBIA-DUVAL-ECHOLS-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-GLYNN (COASTAL)-
GLYNN (INLAND)-HAMILTON-JEFF DAVIS-MARION-NASSAU-PIERCE-PUTNAM-
ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION-WARE-WAYNE-
116 PM EDT WED JUN 11 2008

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP...WITH GREATEST
COVERAGE OVER THE INTERIOR. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS...HEAVY RAINFALL....EXCESSIVE CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
CONCERNS OF GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ALTHOUGH MOST STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SEVERE LIMITS...
SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO SELF ACTIVATE IN THE EVENT WARNINGS ARE
ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

ECZ/MKT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
211 PM EDT WED JUN 11 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0209 PM     HAIL             5 S JACKSONVILLE INTL A 30.41N 81.71W
06/11/2008  E0.25 INCH       DUVAL              FL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            A STORM SPOTTER REPORTED PEA SIZE HAIL AT THE
            INTERSECTION OF INTERSTATE 95 AND UNION STREET.

&&

PKEEGAN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
214 PM EDT WED JUN 11 2008

FLZ032-036-037-040-111900-
ALACHUA-CLAY-MARION-PUTNAM-
214 PM EDT WED JUN 11 2008

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHEASTERN
ALACHUA...SOUTHWESTERN CLAY...NORTHERN MARION AND WESTERN PUTNAM
COUNTIES FOR STRONG WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING VALID
UNTIL 300 PM EDT...

AT 214 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 3 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF MELROSE TO 9 MILES NORTHWEST OF MICANOPY...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 9
MPH. THESE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND ORANGE
HEIGHTS...NEWNANS LAKE...MELROSE...LAKE GENEVA...KEYSTONE HEIGHTS...
PUTNAM HALL...ROCHELLE...GROVE PARK...FLORAHOME AND REDDICK THROUGH
300 PM EDT. HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE
EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND MINOR FLOODING OF LOW-LYING
AREAS.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

ENYEDI

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
216 PM EDT WED JUN 11 2008

FLZ035-111845-
GILCHRIST-
216 PM EDT WED JUN 11 2008

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHEASTERN
GILCHRIST COUNTY FOR STRONG WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND EXCESSIVE
LIGHTNING VALID UNTIL 245 PM EDT...

AT 216 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED OVER GILCHRIST COUNTY...OR 6 MILES NORTHEAST
OF TRENTON...MOVING SOUTH AT 7 MPH. THESE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND THROUGH 245 PM EDT. HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH
IN DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF
45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE. HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND MINOR FLOODING
OF LOW-LYING AREAS.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

ENYEDI

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