Severe Thunderstorm Warning 178, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
931 AM EDT TUE JUN 10 2008

.UPDATE...THE MORNING HAD A SLIGHTLY HAZY BEGINNING FOR SOME
FOLKS. THE SOUNDING SHOWS A REVERSAL OF WINDS BELOW 5 KFT WITH A
SHIFT TO WLY AND PRIMARILY SELY WINDS AT MID/HI LEVELS. UPPER AIR
PLOT CONFIRMS SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWING UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER FL
PENINSULA. PWATS ARE MODEST THIS MORNING COMING IN AROUND 1.5
INCHES BUT DO EXPECT A CONTINUED INCREASE IN MOISTURE TODAY. SEA
BREEZES WILL BE PROVIDE FORCING MECHANISM AND INITIAL CONVECTION
WILL BE ALONG THE SEA BREEZES AND LARGE LAKE BREEZES AS NEAR LAKE
GEORGE IN MARION AND PUTNAM COUNTIES. A WEAK STEERING FLOW COULD
LEAD TO ERRATIC STORM MOTION GUIDED BY OUTFLOWS. THE SLOW MOTION
AND VERY TALL STORMS COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING AND SMALL
HAIL. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS EXPECTED TO THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE WITH EXCEPTION OF REDUCED
VSBY/CIGS DURING TS BETWEEN 19-23Z AT JAX AND GNV. SEA BREEZE IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH PAST SSI AND CRG BEFORE SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT
AND WILL KEEP VCTS FOR NOW. WILL EVALUATE AGAIN BEFORE 18Z
ISSUANCE.

&&

.MARINE...NO HEADLINES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  93  70  91  70 /  30  30  20  10
SSI  89  75  87  75 /  20  30  20  10
JAX  91  71  91  71 /  40  30  30  30
SGJ  88  72  88  73 /  30  30  30  30
GNV  92  69  91  69 /  50  30  40  30
OCF  91  69  91  70 /  50  30  40  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

TRABERT/KERNS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1220 PM EDT TUE JUN 10 2008

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-111000-
HAMILTON-SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-NASSAU-DUVAL-UNION-BRADFORD-CLAY-
ST JOHNS-GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION-COFFEE-
JEFF DAVIS-BACON-APPLING-WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-BRANTLEY-
INLAND GLYNN-COASTAL GLYNN-ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-
COASTAL CAMDEN-
1220 PM EDT TUE JUN 10 2008

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS FLORIDA
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL START TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA BY MID AFTERNOON. STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...AND EXCESSIVE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND SMALL HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY
WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY AND THEN AGAIN ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO SELF-ACTIVATE IF WARNINGS ARE ISSUED
LATER TODAY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

JDS/ABE

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
106 PM EDT TUE JUN 10 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0104 PM     HAIL             OCALA                   29.19N 82.13W
06/10/2008  E0.25 INCH       MARION             FL   PUBLIC

            THE PUBLIC REPORTED PEA SIZE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ALONG
            HIGHWAY 326, 7 MILES WEST OF OCALA.

&&

BKERNS

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
110 PM EDT TUE JUN 10 2008

FLZ035-036-101800-
ALACHUA-GILCHRIST-
110 PM EDT TUE JUN 10 2008

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHWESTERN
ALACHUA AND SOUTHEASTERN GILCHRIST COUNTIES FOR STRONG WINDS...SMALL
HAIL AND EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING VALID UNTIL 200 PM EDT...

AT 110 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF NEWBERRY...OR 7 MILES
NORTH OF BRONSON...MOVING NORTH AT 7 MPH. THESE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND ARCHER AND NEWBERRY THROUGH 200 PM EDT.
HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND
LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH
POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER
ON ROADWAYS AND MINOR FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

CARROLL

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