Severe Thunderstorm Warning 129, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
425 PM EDT WED MAY 21 2008

...ISOLD STRONG/SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTN/EVENING...
...MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL LIKELY THU NIGHT-FRI NIGHT...

.SHORT TERM...A REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS N FL WILL LIKELY
SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTN INTO THE EVENING
HOURS AS A WEAK FRONT JUST N OF THE ALTAMAHA RIVER BASIN CONTINUES
TO SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHWARD. DRY AIR LINGERS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES WHERE OCALA IS EXPERIENCING RED FLAG CONDITIONS WITH DEW
PTS IN THE MID 50S...BUT JUST N NEAR THE OUTFLOW AND BETWEEN THE SFC
FRONT DEW PTS IN THE 70S WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MODEST SFC BASED
INSTABILITY. HAVE CONTINUED WITH NIL POPS NEAR OCF THIS AFTN/EVENING
AND A GOOD CHANCE FOR OUR CENTRAL ZONES WHERE SFC BASED FORCING AND
INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW STRONG CELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR SMALL HAIL. POPS DECREASE AFTER 02Z.

THU A SHORT WAVE MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES
WILL TRACK EASTWARD WITH A SURGE OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE ADVANCING
OVER OUR AREA IN THE AFTERNOON FROM THE GULF. HAVE ADVERTISED A
CHANCE OF TSRA WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES OVER OUR S FL ZONES WHERE
DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL COINCIDE WITH LOW LEVEL FORCING PER A LIFTING
WARM FRONT.

THU NIGHT INTO FRI EVENING THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE WILL
TRAVERSE OUR CWA WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY W-E ORIENTED WARM FRONT
ANTICIPATED NEAR THE FL-GA STATELINE. THIS BOUNDARY IN CONCERT WITH
A STRONG LLJ OF 45 KTS EMANATING FROM THE GULF AND AMPLE SFC BASED
INSTABILITY WITH DEW PTS NEAR 70 UNDER THE RRQ OF A SOUTHERN STREAM
JET WILL FAVOR WIDESPREAD RA/EMBEDDED TS OVER THE AREA WITH PERIODS
OF HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY. DRIER MID LEVEL AIR WILL BEGIN TO
INFILTRATE AROUND THE NW SIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW WITH MODELS
INDICATING SFC CYCLOGENESIS POSSIBLE OFFSHORE OF THE FL EAST COAST
EARLY SAT.

A LINGERING WAKE TROUGH WILL LIKELY EXTEND OVER THE AREA SAT SO HAVE
CONTINUED WITH A HIGH CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTN/EARLY EVENING
TSRA...THEN POPS DECREASE LATE SAT NIGHT AS MUCH DRIER AND MORE
STABLE AIR FILTERS OVER THE AREA FROM THE NNE AS STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR NORTH.

HAVE LEANED ON THE WARM SIDE OF MOS IN THE SHORT TERM WITH MINS IN
THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S THROUGH FRI NIGHT...AND COOL SIDE FOR
MAXES WITH VALUES IN THE MID TO LOW 80S.

.LONG TERM...MON-WED EXPECT MOSTLY DRY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS AS A
SFC RIDGE TO OUR N SHIFTS S AND E OF OUR AREA BRINGING US COOLER
TEMPS AND BREEZY ONSHORE FLOW. A FEW COASTAL SHRA POSSIBLE WILL BE
POSSIBLE TUE AND WED MAINLY S OF SGJ AS THE SFC LOW NEAR THE BAHAMAS
BREAKS DOWN AS MORE OF AN EASTERLY WAVE APPROACHING SE FL.

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SITES
KSSI...KJAX AND KCRG THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING...WITH WIND GUSTS
EXCEEDING 50 KNOTS AND LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY HOLD NORTH OF KGNV...THUS WILL MAINTAIN
VCTS FOR THIS SITE.

&&

.MARINE...SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT THE
LOCAL WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING...MAINLY NORTH OF ST. AUGUSTINE.
OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL BE ON THE DECREASE AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY
PUSHES INTO THE LOCAL AREA. AT THIS TIME...FEEL GFS DEPICTION OF
SURFACE LOW MOVING NORTHEAST OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY IS TAD BIT
OVERDONE AND WILL NOT REFLECT THIS IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A RED FLAG WARNING CONTINUES FOR MARION COUNTY THROUGH
8 PM DUE TO COMBINATION OF LOW RH/GUSTY WINDS. OTHERWISE...RH VALUES
ARE FORECAST ABOVE CRITICAL VALUES INTO THE WEEKEND. WESTERLY WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO SUSTAIN AROUND 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH THE
REMAINDER OF TODAY...WITH WEAKER WINDS FORECAST FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  65  88  70  83 /  20  20  30  50
SSI  68  82  70  78 /  20  20  30  60
JAX  69  86  71  80 /  30  30  40  60
SGJ  70  84  72  80 /  20  30  40  60
GNV  69  88  71  83 /  20  40  50  60
OCF  68  87  72  87 /  10  40  40  60

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MARION.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

ENYEDI/ZAPPE/KEEGAN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
249 PM EDT WED MAY 21 2008

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-221000-
ALACHUA-APPLING-ATKINSON-BACON-BAKER-BRADFORD-BRANTLEY-
CAMDEN (COASTAL)-CAMDEN (INLAND)-CHARLTON-CLAY-CLINCH-COFFEE-
COLUMBIA-DUVAL-ECHOLS-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-GLYNN (COASTAL)-
GLYNN (INLAND)-HAMILTON-JEFF DAVIS-MARION-NASSAU-PIERCE-PUTNAM-
ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION-WARE-WAYNE-
249 PM EDT WED MAY 21 2008

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND
MOST OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA THROUGH 10 PM TONIGHT...

THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND NORTH FLORIDA THROUGH THIS
EVENING. STORMS WILL MOVE EAST AROUND 35 TO 40 MPH. THE MAIN CONCERNS
WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS NEAR 60 TO 70 MPH.

GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH WILL IMPACT
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY.

A POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE GULF AND
SPREAD ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT.
THIS SYSTEM WILL INTERACT WITH A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO
POSSIBLY PRODUCE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL OCCUR IN AN AREA AROUND THE FLORIDA/GEORGIA
BORDER FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED THROUGH THIS EVENING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

ENYEDI

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