Severe Thunderstorm Warning 104, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
233 PM EDT SUN MAY 11 2008

...ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS STILL POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEAST GA...
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR NE FLORIDA...

.SHORT TERM...A LARGE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM FROM PRE-
FRONTAL CONVECTION HAS PUSHED OFFSHORE OF THE SE ATLANTIC COAST
AFTER PRODUCING WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER AS A DERECHO WITH
EMBEDDED TORNADOES ACROSS MUCH OF GA AND SC THIS MORNING. A
TRAILING SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COASTAL GA WEST INTO SW GA
OVER A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. ALOFT AN AREA OF MID LEVEL
POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION CONTINUES TO OVERRIDE THIS TROUGH
WHICH CONTINUES TO FIRE ISOLD SEVERE STORMS ACROSS SE GA.
ELSEWHERE POPCORN SHRA ARE FIRING ACROSS NE FL WHERE DIURNAL
INSTABILITY HAS BROKEN THE CAP. GRADIENT WINDS SUSTAINED FROM
25-30 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 40 MPH ACROSS NE FL REQUIRED US TO
UPGRADE TO A LAKE WIND ADVISORY THROUGH 8 PM.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WILL
CONTINUE WITH SCATTERED TS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. BELIEVE THE
GREATEST AREA OF CONCERN FOR SVR STORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER SE GA
THROUGH LATE AFTN AS PVA CONTINUES TO TRACK EAST AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NE SLOWLY FILLS AND LIFTS NE. LACK OF DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE IS LIMITING AREAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION...BUT
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET DYNAMICS AND INSTABILITY ARE ENABLING STORMS
TO BECOME SEVERE QUICKLY WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. MEAN LAYER DRY AIR WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO
INFILTRATE IN FROM THE NW BETWEEN 03-06Z WITH CONVECTION COMING TO
END. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS FOR OUR
SE GA ZONES THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND GUSTY WINDS FOR NE FL.

ONCE CONVECTION DIES OFF THIS EVENING...SKIES WILL CLEAR AS
BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE. MON COOLER MAXES IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW
80S UNDER SUNNY SKIES AND WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...AND
ANOTHER LAKE WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE ENTIRE CWA WITH
SUSTAINED SPEEDS NEAR 20 MPH AND GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH. MON NIGHT INTO
TUE MEAN RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE AREA WITH MINS DROPPING TO NEAR
50 INLAND...PERHAPS UPPER 40S AT SOME OF OUR NORMALLY COOLER
LOCALES. TUE ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP WITH COOLER MAXES IN THE
MID 70S ALONG THE COAST...WITH MID 80S INLAND. TUE NIGHT AND WED
MOISTURE AND WARMER TEMPS RETURN OVER THE AREA AS SSE FLOW
DEVELOPS.

.LONG TERM...THU THROUGH SUN...
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS MOISTURE AND
WARM AIR ADVANCES OVER THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM
EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA LATE FRI INTO SAT. HAVE CONTINUED WITH
A LOW CHANCES OF POPS EACH DAY AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID-UPPER 80S AND LOW IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...STRONG SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING TO WEST
TONIGHT. WINDS SHOULD BRIEFLY DROP BELOW 12 KT BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z
THEN INCREASE AGAIN. WILL KEEP WINDS AT SSI SINCE THE SITE HAS
BEEN AN OUTLIER AND SHOULD INCREASE SOON.

&&

.MARINE...BUOYS ARE REPORTING SW WINDS 20-25 KT WITH GUSTS OF
30-33 KT. WILL CONTINUE SCA WITH MENTION OF OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO
GALE FORCE. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO W TONGT AND NW ON MON THEN BEGIN
TO DIMINISH LATE MON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...HAVE UPGRADED THE WATCH TO A RED FLAG WRNG FOR SE
GA ON MONDAY AS LATEST GRIDS INDICATE SUSTAINED 20 MPH WINDS ARE
LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON WHEN RHS WILL BE AT A MINIMUM. MIN RHS
WILL BE 25-30 PCT ACRS THE REGION. SIMILAR MIN RHS WILL OCCUR
AGAIN TUE MAINLY W OF I-95 AS THE BEACHES SHOULD EXPERIENCE RHS
NEAR 40%.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  55  80  50  82 /  10   0   0   0
SSI  59  79  56  76 /  20   0   0   0
JAX  57  81  53  80 /  20   0   0   0
SGJ  61  81  58  76 /  20   0   0   0
GNV  60  83  52  85 /  20   0   0   0
OCF  60  82  51  86 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 12 PM TO 7 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ALACHUA-BAKER-
     BRADFORD-CLAY-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-
     MARION-NASSAU-PUTNAM-ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 PM TO 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ALACHUA-BAKER-BRADFORD-CLAY-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-FLAGLER-
     GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-MARION-NASSAU-PUTNAM-ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-
     UNION.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ALACHUA-BAKER-
     BRADFORD-CLAY-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-
     MARION-NASSAU-PUTNAM-ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     EVENING FOR CLAY-DUVAL-NASSAU-PUTNAM.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     EVENING FOR ALACHUA-BAKER-BRADFORD-COLUMBIA-GILCHRIST-
     HAMILTON-MARION-SUWANNEE-UNION.

GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR APPLING-
     ATKINSON-BACON-BRANTLEY-CHARLTON-CLINCH-COASTAL CAMDEN-
     COASTAL GLYNN-COFFEE-ECHOLS-INLAND CAMDEN-INLAND GLYNN-JEFF
     DAVIS-PIERCE-WARE-WAYNE.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 12 PM TO 7 PM EDT MONDAY FOR APPLING-
     ATKINSON-BACON-BRANTLEY-CHARLTON-CLINCH-COASTAL CAMDEN-
     COASTAL GLYNN-COFFEE-ECHOLS-INLAND CAMDEN-INLAND GLYNN-JEFF
     DAVIS-PIERCE-WARE-WAYNE.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND
     GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
     FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
     ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND GA
     TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST
     AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT
     20 NM.

&&

ENYEDI/TRABERT/KERNS

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