Red Flag Warning 72, NWS Jacksonville, FL

000 
WWUS82 KJAX 162205
RFWJAX

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
605 PM EDT THU OCT 16 2008

FLZ020>023-030-031-162315-
/O.EXP.KJAX.FW.W.0072.000000T0000Z-081016T2200Z/
HAMILTON-SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-UNION-BRADFORD-
605 PM EDT THU OCT 16 2008

...RED FLAG WARNING HAS EXPIRED...

THE RED FLAG WARNING IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 


$$

MKT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
315 AM EDT THU OCT 16 2008

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER HIGH HAS SHIFTED S OVER CENTRAL FL. DRY AIR
ALOFT ABOVE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION HAS DROPPED TO BELOW 900 MB. E
FLOW EXTENDS UP TO ABOUT 600 MB WITH VERY LIGHT W FLOW ALOFT.
ENUF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA TO ALLOW AREAS OF
DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP WITH LIGHT WINDS AND FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS. HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR MOST OF
THE AREA SAVE THE EXTREME SE ZONES WHERE GREATER T/TD SPREAD AND
STRONGER WINDS SHOULD LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT. TEMPS RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 60S OVER SE GA TO THE LOWER 70S OVER SE COASTAL AREAS.

.SHORT TERM...NEXT 36 HOURS WILL CONTINUE TO BE DOMINATED BY
MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES DURING THE DAY AND FOG AT
NIGHT. CONTINUED ATMOSPHERIC DRYING SHOULD SHRINK AREAL COVERAGE
OF FOG TONIGHT...WITH MOST OF THE FOG CONFINED TO SE ZONES. TEMPS
WILL BE WARM BENEATH THE HIGH WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S TO
NEAR 90. NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL GRADUALLY WARM THE NEXT 2 NIGHTS.

APPROACHING WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL INCREASE POPS FROM THE NW.
POPS HAVE BEEN CAPPED AROUND 30 PERCENT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...
WITH BEST CHANCES OVER SE GA ZONES. LIMITED INSTABILITY SHOULD
KEEP TSTMS ISOLD AT BEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FRONT WILL TRAVERSE
THE AREA EARLY SAT...A BIT SLOWER THAN YESTERDAYS FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE E US BEHIND THE
FRONT THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL DROP TO ABOUT
5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON SUN...THEN SLOWLY WARM AND LOW-LEVEL
FLOW BECOMES NE. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...MAINLY ALONG E COASTAL LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...DENSE FOG HAS ALREADY TAKEN HOLD AT A MAJORITY OF THE
TERMINALS AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. MAY SEE AN ADVECTION COMPONENT TO THIS EVENT THIS
TYPE OF SETUP OFTEN INCLUDES A SHIFT TO THE WEST IN THE FOG BANK
TOWARD DAYBREAK. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INDICATE THIS YET IN
THE TAF SET BUT MAY NEED TO TRIM BACK LIFR CONDITIONS FOR THE
ATLANTIC SITES AFTER 10Z. ONCE FOG CLEARS...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...DESPITE WINDS HAVING DECREASED TO BELOW 10 KNOTS...STILL
SEEING SWELLS THAT ARE ABOVE MODEL PROJECTIONS WITH 41012 SHOWING
5 FT. THIS WILL REQUIRE SCEC CONTINUATION FOR THE FIRST PERIOD FOR
THE OFFSHORE PORTION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE
WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING AS SWELLS CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SAT WITH BETTER AGREEMENT
WRT TIMING AMONG THE SHORT TERM MODELS. WILL USE A BLEND FOR THIS
CYCLE WHICH MAY REQUIRE SCA IN POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT SAT NIGHT
INTO SUN.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ALTHOUGH HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL
TODAY...MODELS DO INDICATE AND INCREASED MIXING PROFILE OVER
YESTERDAY AND SHOULD SEE SOME UPPER 50S DEWPOINTS BY THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH CONTINUED WARM TEMPS...RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO
THE UPPER 20S FOR PORTIONS OF THE SUWANNEE VALLEY ALONG INTERSTATE
10. WILL UPGRADE INLAND PORTION OF A WATCH TO A WARNING FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  90  58  85  59 /   0   0  20  30
SSI  84  65  84  64 /   0   0  10  20
JAX  88  59  87  62 /   0   0  10  20
SGJ  85  63  84  65 /   0   0  10  10
GNV  87  57  86  60 /   0   0  10  10
OCF  87  57  86  58 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM THIS MORNING FOR ALACHUA-BAKER-
     BRADFORD-CLAY-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-MARION-
     NASSAU-PUTNAM-SUWANNEE-UNION.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM TO 6 PM THIS AFTERNOON FOR BAKER-
     BRADFORD-COLUMBIA-HAMILTON-SUWANNEE-UNION.

GA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM THIS MORNING FOR APPLING-
     ATKINSON-BACON-BRANTLEY-CHARLTON-CLINCH-COASTAL CAMDEN-
     COASTAL GLYNN-COFFEE-ECHOLS-INLAND CAMDEN-INLAND GLYNN-JEFF
     DAVIS-PIERCE-WARE-WAYNE.

AM...NONE.

&&

CARROLL/DEESE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
240 AM EDT THU OCT 16 2008

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-161100-
HAMILTON-SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-NASSAU-DUVAL-UNION-BRADFORD-CLAY-
ST JOHNS-GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION-COFFEE-
JEFF DAVIS-BACON-APPLING-WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-BRANTLEY-
INLAND GLYNN-COASTAL GLYNN-ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-
COASTAL CAMDEN-
240 AM EDT THU OCT 16 2008

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR MOST OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA THROUGH MID-MORNING...

THE COMBINATION OF CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WITH MOIST AIR IN
PLACE WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. THE FOG WILL
BECOME DENSE AT TIMES WITH VISIBILITIES LOWERING BELOW A HALF-MILE.
MOTORISTS ARE URGED TO USE EXTRA CAUTION TONIGHT AS THE VISIBILITY
WILL LIKELY VARY CONSIDERABLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. NAVIGATION OF
INLAND WATERS...INLETS AND PASSES MAY BE HAZARDOUS DUE TO RESTRICTED
VISIBILITIES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

AREAS OF DENSE FOG THAT LINGER PAST SUNRISE WILL MAKE DRIVING
HAZARDOUS DURING THE THURSDAY MORNING COMMUTE.

FOG IS EXPECTED TO RETURN THURSDAY NIGHT. FOG MAY AGAIN BECOME
LOCALLY DENSE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER LOCAL NORTHEASTER EVENT LATE THIS
WEEKEND AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED AT THIS TIME.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

CARROLL