Red Flag Warning 68, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
240 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2008

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...CONVECTION ACCOMPANYING SURFACE
FRONTAL WAVE ACRS CNTRL FLORIDA HAS REMAINED THERE WHILE ISOLD
SHOWERS ARE BREAKING OUT ALONG SFC TROF EXTENDING THROUGH SERN GA
AND NERN FL AND MAY SEE AN ISOLD SHOWER OR TWO THRU SUNSET AND HAVE
TWEAKED POPS UP TO 15-20% TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS ACTIVITY. ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY SHOULD COME TO AN END AFTER SUNSET (ARND 00Z) WITH SKIES
BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL TROF APPROACHES THE
REGION. ENOUGH MIXING WILL OCCUR TO KEEP PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG TO A
MINIMUM AND ONLY 2-4SM VSBYS ARE EXPECTED ACRS INLD NERN FL BY
MORNING.

WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROF AND COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL TAKE
PLACE LATE IN THE DAY AND W/SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL PUSH MAX
TEMPS TO AROUND 90 DEGS AND MAKE FOR A RATHER WARM 1ST DAY OF
OCTOBER.

WED NIGHT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR RUSHING INTO THE REGION WILL MAKE
FOR COOL OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS IN THE 50S UNDER CLEAR SKIES.

THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION AND
WITH COOL AIR ADVECTION IN PLACE ON NORTH WINDS WILL HOLD MAX TEMPS
IN THE 75-80 DEG RANGE ACRS MUCH OF THE REGION.

THU NIGHT...COOLEST NIGHT OF THE FORECAST PACKAGE WITH MIN TEMPS
FALLING INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S INLAND.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH TOWARD THE CAROLINAS AND SET UP
ONSHORE FLOW OUT OF THE NORTHEAST WITH ISOLD SHOWERS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS PUSHING CLOSE TO THE COAST FRIDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE STATIONARY OVER THE CAROLINAS AND LOW
PRESSURE TROF SHARPENING UP OVER THE BAHAMAS WILL SET-UP MORE
CLASSIC LOCAL NOREASTER CONDS WITH BREEZY/WINDY CONDS ALONG THE
COASTAL COUNTIES WITH ISOLD/SCTD SHOWERS THERE.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...OLD FRONTAL ZONE WILL LIFT SLOWLY BACK TO
THE NORTH THROUGH THE PERIOD AND IN COMBINATION WITH ONSHORE FLOW
WILL INCREASE POPS EACH DAY WITH SCTD SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS
POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACRS THE NERN FLORIDA COASTAL PORTION. CONFIDENCE
IS STILL LOW AT THIS TIME FRAME AS MODELS STILL IN DISAGREEMENT IN
HOW MUCH DEEPER MOISTURE WILL LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION...THICKER MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED THE TAF SITES
TO BE REPLACED BY CU FIELD AND ISOLD SHOWERS. HAVE INCLUDED MVFR FOG
CONDITIONS AT KGNV LATE TONIGHT WHERE MORE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
COINCIDE WITH DELAYED WIND INCREASE. WIND GUSTS APPROACHING 20 KTS
ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY ON WED.

&&

.MARINE...MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT CAUTION WINDS AND
SEAS WED NIGHT IN THE OFFSHORE BEHIND COLD FRONT. THESE CONDITIONS
FCST TO SUBSIDE LATE IN THE WEEK...THEN NE WINDS AND SEAS WILL AGAIN
INCREASE THIS WEEKEND AS GRADIENT INCREASES BETWEEN STALLED FRONT TO
THE S AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALONG THE E SEABOARD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MIN RH VALUES FCST TO DROP TO NEAR OR JUST BELOW RED
FLAG CRITERIA ON WED AS DRY AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND COLD FRONT. DRIER
VALUES NOW EXPECTED FOR THU AFTN...AND A FIRE WX WATCH MAY BE NEEDED
IN THE NEXT PACKAGE. NE FLOW SHOULD PRECLUDE RED FLAG CONDITIONS BY
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  62  86  52  78 /  10   0   0   0
SSI  70  86  61  75 /  10   0   0   0
JAX  67  89  58  78 /  10   0   0   0
SGJ  68  89  64  78 /  10   0   0   0
GNV  65  88  58  80 /  10   0   0   0
OCF  66  88  58  82 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

HESS/CARROLL/KERNS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
930 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2008

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-010900-
HAMILTON-SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-NASSAU-DUVAL-UNION-BRADFORD-CLAY-
ST JOHNS-GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION-COFFEE-
JEFF DAVIS-BACON-APPLING-WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-BRANTLEY-
INLAND GLYNN-COASTAL GLYNN-ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-
COASTAL CAMDEN-
930 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2008

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

...MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG ST JOHNS AND FLAGLER COUNTY
BEACHES...

RESIDUAL SWELLS OVER THE WATERS WILL RESULT IN A MODERATE RIP
CURRENT RISK FOR THE SAINT JOHNS AND FLAGLER COUNTY BEACHES TODAY.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND IN THE SURF ZONE FORECAST.

AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE GULF AND TRACKS ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TIER THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN
IMPACT OF ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TO REDUCE VISIBILITY
WHEN DRIVING.

AREAS OF FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH LOCALLY
DENSE FOG POSSIBLE BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION WILL ENHANCE THE FIRE DANGER
ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF RIP CURRENT OVER
THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

DEESE/JCH