Red Flag Warning 61, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
245 PM EDT SAT MAY 24 2008

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.SHORT TERM...FORECAST AREA IS EXPERIENCING A SQUEEZE PLAY OF
SORTS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS SHORT WAVE TO THE SOUTH WILL PLAY A
ROLE THAT IS MOSTLY OVER MLB AND TBW AREA AND SHORTWAVE TO THE
NORTH WILL BE LATE ARRIVING TO THE AREA. LIKEWISE...MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW MODERATE CAPE ON THE RUC13 SOUNDING (2000 J/KG)
BUT THIS PALES IN COMPARISON TO SOME OF THE VALUES SEEN FOR OUR
NEIGHBORS TO THE SOUTH. TAKING THIS ALL INTO ACCOUNT...FEEL THE
BEST CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS INITIALLY HAS PASSED US TO THE SOUTH
AND WILL BE ENCOMPASSED IN WW 346. WILL STILL SEE SOME ISOLATED
ACTIVITY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10 WHERE NORTHEAST
SEABREEZE WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS BUT STRENGTH SHOULD BE LIMITED BY
MODEST MID LEVEL TEMPS(-6C) THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

THAT LEAVES US WITH THE SECOND SHORTWAVE WHICH I BELIEVE WILL
PROVIDE THE BEST SHOT AT STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE ACTIVITY THROUGH
THE LATE EVENING HOURS. THIS TIME PERIOD WILL FEATURE STRONGEST
DVPA VALUES ARRIVING IN TANDEM WITH BEST CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
COAST. MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW MID LEVEL TEMPS COOLING TO -8 TO
-9C BY THIS TIME PERIOD PROVIDING STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND
INCREASING CAPE VALUES. HAVE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO THE POSSIBILITY
OF THIS SECONDARY ACTIVITY PRODUCING MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS
AND LARGE HAIL IN THE LOW END SCATTERED ACTIVITY.

SECONDARY SHORTWAVE WILL BE SOUTH OF THE REGION BY 12Z WITH LARGE
SCALE SUBSIDENCE IN STORE FOR THE AREA ON SUNDAY. LARGE HIGH
PARKED BETWEEN THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE NEW ENGLAND STATES WILL BE
IN A POSITION TO PROVIDE EASTERLY FLOW TO THE REGION...AND
ALTHOUGH MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES SKC...WILL INCLUDE SOME CU
DEVELOPMENT PER LOCAL GUIDANCE TOOLS WHICH ADVECTS ACTIVITY IN OFF
THE COAST.

REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM INCLUDES AN ABSOLUTELY GORGEOUS
MEMORIAL DAY AS SURFACE HIGH SLIDES SOUTHEAST AND MID AND UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL ALSO
RESULT IN A NIL POP FORECAST FOR THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...CURRENT EXTENDED LOOKS ON TRACK WITH LOW POPS
BEGINNING ON WED AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO WEEKS END WITH A
STEADY TEMP CLIMB ALSO IN STORE FOR THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...SCT-BKN CU FIELD WELL DEVELOPED OVER NE FL WITH BEST SHOT
OF T-STORMS NEAR GAINESVILLE TAF. FOR NOW HAVE PLACED IN TEMPO
T-STORMS THERE THROUGH 8 PM AS BEST LOW LEVEL FORCING AND MOISTURE
WILL BE LOCATED THERE COMPARED TO OTHER TAF SITES. AS CONVECTION
DISSIPATES TONIGHT...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NELY AS THE FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH. NOT MUCH FOG ANTICIPATED AT TAF SITES DUE TO INCREASING
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AND FOG STABILITY INDICES ARE NOT FAVORABLE.
THAT BEING SAID...SOME LOW STRATUS AND LIGHT FOG APPEAR POSSIBLE
SUNDAY MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT BUT NOT ENUF CONFIDENCE FOR TAF
FORECASTS YET.

&&

.MARINE...WIND SHIFT TO NELY EXPECTED TONIGHT AND INCREASING AS THE FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SCA HEADLINE OFFSHORE WATERS
BUT SHIFT IT BACK A FEW HOURS BASED ON AVAILABLE GUIDANCE. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO ELY ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AND WEAKEN AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE REGION.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO FIRE WX WATCHES OR RED FLAG CONDS AT THIS TIME
BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON INLAND NE FL ZONES ON SUNDAY AS THE
WINDS AND RH VALUES WILL APPROACH CRITERIA...MAINLY OVER THE I-75
CORRIDOR. AT THIS TIME...VALUES FALL SHORT OF THRESHOLDS. LOW RH
VALUES AGAIN INLAND AREAS ON MONDAY BUT APPEAR TO FALL SHORT OF RED
FLAG WARNINGS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  62  87  56  87 /  20   0   0   0
SSI  68  79  66  79 /  20   0   0   0
JAX  68  82  62  81 /  20   0   0   0
SGJ  70  81  66  80 /  30   0   0   0
GNV  66  89  58  86 /  30   0   0   0
OCF  67  89  60  85 /  30  10   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ALTAMAHA
     SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
     FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
     ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

DEESE/SHASHY/WALKER

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