Red Flag Warning 53, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
308 PM EDT TUE MAY 6 2008

.SHORT TERM...
A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO FORECAST
THE SERIES OF SHORTWAVES THAT WILL TREK ACROSS THE CONUS OVER THE
NEXT 4 TO 5 DAYS. ONE OF THE MORE SIGNIFICANT WAVES (NOW OVER BAJA
CALIFORNIA) WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TO THE OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY AND
WEAKEN AS QUASI-ZONAL UPPER FLOW PATTERN BECOMES ESTABLISHED LATE
IN THE WEEK.

VERY LITTLE EDITING WAS MADE TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE. COLD FRONT
WILL GET CLOSE LATER IN THE WEEK BUT WILL COME UP SHORT...THUS
THE AREA WILL REMAIN LOCKED IN THE WARM SECTOR...RESULTING IN A
FOUR DAY STRETCH (THURSDAY - SUNDAY) OF HOT AND HUMID
WEATHER...HIGHS AROUND 90...LOWS AROUND 70...AND DEWPOINTS AT
LEAST IN THE MID 60S (POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS THE LOW 70S). UPPER
DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE NOT REAL FAVORABLE FOR PRECIP BUT ENOUGH
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO
INITIATE ALONG SEA BREEZES EVERY AFTERNOON THIS WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHEN PRE- FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH WORKS ACROSS THE
AREA WITH A SLIGHT HINT OF SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT...THUS WILL GO WITH POPS EVERYWHERE DURING THE OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...
SIGNS OF RELIEF DO NOT COME UNTIL UPPER PATTERN BECOMES MORE
AMPLIFIED LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND A COLD FRONT MAY FINALLY HAVE
ENOUGH MOMENTUM TO SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA WITH DRIER AND COOLER
CONDITIONS. BUT EVEN THIS IS NOW A LITTLE UP IN THE AIR. LATEST
GFS RUN STALLS FRONT OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT BEGINNING AS EARLY AS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EXTENDING THROUGH POSSIBLY TUESDAY. WILL FORECAST
CHANCE POPS ALONG FRONT SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT BUT NOT READY TO JUMP
ON A STALLED FRONTAL SCENARIO JUST YET...SO WILL KEEP THE COOLER
AND DRY FORECAST ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY INTACT FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
OCNL MVFR CONDITIONS HAVE OCCURRED DUE TO MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM
THE NE AS THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH. HAVE KEPT VFR
TONIGHT ALTHOUGH SOME SHALLOW FOG IS POSSIBLE BUT NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO INSERT INTO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
NE FLOW DEVELOPED RATHER QUICKLY WITH SCEC CONDS OVER A GOOD
PORTION OF THE WATERS. WILL INITIALIZE WITH HIGHER WINDS FOR THE
AFTERNOON CWF. WINDS VEER THROUGH WED AND BECOME STRONGER THROUGH
THU AS THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE E AND HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS WELL E OF THE AREA. PROBABLY WILL HAVE
HEADLINES AGAIN BY THU AND PROBABLY CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY.
PREVAILING SW FLOW CONTS THROUGH SAT AND SUN AT AROUND 15-20 KT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SLAM DUNK RED FLAG WARNING AS CURRENT RH VALUES ARE BELOW 20%
OVER OUR FAR SW ZONES. BASED ON THIS WILL ALSO GO FOR A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH FOR WED AFTERNOON BUT DURATIONS WILL BE SHORTER BUT
MIN RH VALUES MAY NEAR THE UPPER 20% RANGE. OTHERWISE...INCREASING
LLVL MOISTURE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  57  86  64  88 /   0  10  10  20
SSI  65  79  69  83 /   0   0  10  30
JAX  60  83  66  88 /   0   0  10  20
SGJ  65  81  69  86 /   0   0  10  30
GNV  57  88  65  88 /   0  10  10  20
OCF  58  88  65  88 /   0  10  10  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ALACHUA-BAKER-
     BRADFORD-CLAY-COLUMBIA-GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-MARION-PUTNAM-
     SUWANNEE-UNION.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-SUWANNEE.

GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

SHULER/SHASHY/WALKER