Red Flag Warning 5, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
245 PM EST SUN JAN 13 2008

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...SFC LOW CONTINUES TO DEVELOP JUST NE OF
THE REGION AND SLOWLY DRAG COLD FRONT ACRS THE FORECAST AREA WITH
SCTD SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS SOUTH AND EAST OF JAX-GNV-OCF LINE
AND MOVING OFF TOWARD THE EAST. CLEARING TREND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNSET THIS EVENING.

TONIGHT...DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE WILL BE REPLACED BY HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE FROM THE WEST AND COLD AIR ADVECTION ARRIVING ON NW FLOW OF
10 TO 15 MPH. MIN TEMPS STILL EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER
30S WELL INLAND TO THE LOWER TO MID 40S ELSEWHERE.

MONDAY...HIGH PRES WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE REGION UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE WITH NW
WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH AND MAX TEMPS TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S.

MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FROM THE WEST WILL BE CLOSE
ENOUGH TO ALLOW WINDS TO REMAIN LIGHT AND PROVIDE CONDITIONS
FAVORABLE FOR A LIGHT FREEZE ACROSS INLAND LOCATIONS. THE MAIN
CAVEAT BEING AMOUNT OF CIRRUS CLOUDS OVERHEAD FROM JET STREAK. FOR
NOW CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE FREEZE WATCH/WARNING AT
THIS TIME.

TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTHEAST TOWARD THE TN VALLEY
AND PROVIDE FOR MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY AND COOL DAY WITH HIGH
CLOUDS OVERHEAD AND MAX TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 55 TO 60 DEG RANGE.

TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST INTO THE MID
ATLC STATES BUT WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR LIGHT WINDS AND
ANOTHER LIGHT FREEZE EVENT INLAND BUT AMOUNT OF HIGH CLOUDS
OVERHEAD WILL DETERMINE ACTUAL MIN TEMPS BY EARLY WED MORNING.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

WEDNESDAY...INCREASING CLOUDS AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL
GOMEX AND TRACKS EWD. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE IN THE
DAY...WITH RAINFALL CHANCES INCREASING WED NIGHT.

THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE OVER GOMEX EXPECTED TO TRACK ACRS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE AND HAVE KEPT
LIKELY POPS IN THE FORECAST ALONG WITH ISOLD TSTMS ACRS THE NERN
FL PORTIONS.

FRIDAY...PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY AND MAINLY DRY AS TRAILING COLD
FRONT PUSHES ACRS THE FORECAST AREA WITH LITTLE UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT OR MOISTURE.

SATURDAY/SUNDAY...COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AND
SETTLES OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND WILL ALLOW FOR MAX TEMPS
ONLY IN THE 50S AND MIN TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 20S AND 30S CLOSER
TO THE COAST WITH INLAND FREEZE EVENTS LIKELY.

&&

.AVIATION...CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR DURING NEXT 6-12HRS...
WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...INCREASING W TO NW SFC FLOW LEADING TO SCA FOR OFFSHORE
COMPONENT THRU MON NGT...EXERCISE CAUTION FOR NEARSHORE COMPONENT
TNGT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ISSUING RED FLAG WARNING FOR ALL OF OUR FL COUNTIES
FOR MON AFTN...FOR 25-30 PERCENT MIN RHS. CONDITIONS MARGINAL FOR
GA...MAINLY DUE TO WIND FORECAST...NEXT SHIFT WILL NEED TO
RE-EVALUATE FOR POSSIBILITY OF LOWER DEW POINTS THAN PRESENTLY
FORECAST. ISSUED FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR ALL OF OUR FL COUNTIES
EXCEPT FLAGLER AND ST. JOHNS FOR TUESDAY AFTN...FOR MIN RHS 30-35
PERCENT. MIN RHS WILL INCREASE ON WED/THU.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  37  58  29  57 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  45  57  38  55 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  41  61  32  59 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  46  61  37  59 /   0   0   0   0
GNV  41  61  31  60 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  42  62  31  61 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 12 PM TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     ALACHUA-BAKER-BRADFORD-CLAY-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST
     -HAMILTON-MARION-NASSAU-PUTNAM-ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR ALACHUA-BAKER-BRADFORD-CLAY-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-
     GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-MARION-NASSAU-PUTNAM-SUWANNEE-UNION.

GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY
     FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE-FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE-ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE.

&&

HESS/WOLF/KEEGAN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
230 PM EST SUN JAN 13 2008

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-141000-
HAMILTON-SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-NASSAU-DUVAL-UNION-BRADFORD-CLAY-
ST JOHNS-GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION-COFFEE-
JEFF DAVIS-BACON-APPLING-WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-BRANTLEY-
INLAND GLYNN-COASTAL GLYNN-ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-
COASTAL CAMDEN-
230 PM EST SUN JAN 13 2008

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH THE FREEZING MARK OVER
THE SUWANNEE VALLEY OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND INLAND SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA ON TUESDAY MORNING AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT DURATIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LESS THAN TWO HOURS AT THIS TIME.

ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO TUESDAY NIGHT AND PUSH TOWARD THE REGION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME...MUCH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH RESPECT TO
THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SYSTEM. THIS WILL IMPACT THE DEGREE OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED OVER THE AREA. REGARDLESS...IT
APPEARS RAIN CHANCES WILL BE HIGH BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. THE THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK WILL
BE REFINED WITH SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS AS THE TRACK OF THE LOW BECOMES
MORE CERTAIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

DEESE/HESS