Red Flag Warning 31, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
242 PM EDT SAT MAR 15 2008

...WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING...
...ISOLATED STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE NORTHERN ZONES THIS EVENING...

.SHORT TERM...MAIN ISSUE FOR HE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS
WILL BE HOW MUCH OF GULF STRATUS WHICH HAS PLAGUED THE REGION WILL
SCATTER OUT AND GIVE WAY TO SOME SUN ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL BE
CRITICAL IN DETERMINING HOW MUCH OF THE 40 KT 925 MB JET WILL BE
ABLE TO MIX DOWN THIS AFTERNOON. ALREADY HAVE SEEN THE EDGES OF
THE STRATUS DECK ERODE WHICH HAS RESULTED IN WIND GUSTS TO OVER 30
MPH AT OCALA. I ANTICIPATE CONDITIONS REMAINING MOSTLY
CLOUDY...BUT JUST ENOUGH BREAKS IN DEVELOPING CELLULAR CLOUD
PATTERN TO ALLOW GUSTS TO 35 MPH DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON. WILL
NEED TO MONITOR THE EVOLUTION OF WINDS CLOSELY AS ANY GUSTS TO 40
MPH WOULD NECESSITATE A WIND ADVISORY.

THE OTHER BIG ISSUE FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL CENTER AROUND THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. LATEST
DAY 1 OUTLOOK FROM SPC CLIPS THE EXTREME NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA WHILE MODERATE RISK EXISTS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
SOUTH CAROLINA. SHORT TERM MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING A
STRONG SHORT WAVE RAPIDLY EASTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA AND GA
WITH LIMITED TRANSLATION SOUTHWARD. BIGGEST OBSTACLE FOR DEEP
CONVECTION OVER OUR AREA WILL BE THE LACK OF MOISTURE ABOVE 850 MB
WITH VALUES GENERALLY BELOW 20%.

GIVEN THESE FACTS...CONVECTION OVER OUR NORTHERN ZONES WILL HAVE
TO RELY ON OUTFLOW GENERATED ACTIVITY FROM CENTRAL GA STORMS. THIS
REMAINS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY BUT STILL FEEL IT WILL ONLY RESULT
IN LOW END SCATTERED POPS FOR AREAS NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER. WITH
LOW LEVEL JET BETWEEN 850-700 MB OF 60 KNOTS...STRONG WIND GUSTS
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS WHICH ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP. IN
ADDITION...WITH LOWEST LEVEL FLOW OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST...HELICITY
VALUES IN THE FIRST KILOMETER WILL REMAIN QUITE HIGH AND CANNOT
RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO SHOULD CONVECTION
DEVELOP.

ONCE SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY PUSHES NORTHEAST OF THE AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT...RAPIDLY CLEARING CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WINDS SHOULD
SUBSIDE AS WELL PER LATEST MOS GUIDANCE BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
TO SEE SOME CONTINUED GUSTS NEAR WATER BODIES.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE OHIO VALLEY FOR SUN WITH
BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT TO THE WEST WHICH USUALLY RESULTS IN A FAIR
WX PATTERN FOR OUR AREA. THIS CASE LOOKS NO DIFFERENT AND EXPECT
MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH NIL RAIN CHANCES AND
MODERATING TEMPS THROUGH MID WEEK.

.LONG TERM...STILL LOOKS LIKE NEXT SYSTEM IS ON TRACK FOR WED
AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER STRONG 50-60 KNOT JET IN STORE. INSTABILITY
LOOKS LIMITED THIS FAR OUT BUT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY.
CURRENT GRID SET HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS AND NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED.

&&

.AVIATION...AS ANTICIPATED...MOST OF TAF SITES STILL IN MVFR CIGS AS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTS TO SLOWLY MIX OUT TO BECOME A SCT DECK BY
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. APPEARS MVFR CIGS WILL RETURN THIS EVENING AS
LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT OCCURS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. VIS
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE TONIGHT
BUT AT THIS TIME THINK VIS WILL BE AOA 6SM DUE TO ONCL GUSTY WINDS
AROUND 10-15 MPH. DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN ON SUN WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WILL
INCLUDE WORDING FOR TONIGHT OF OCNL GUSTS TO 30-35 KT AS LOW LEVEL
JET MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. WINDS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE ON SUN AS
HIGH PRES BUILDS IN. NE WINDS KICK UP AGAIN BY EARLY MON AS CENTER
OF 1034 MB HIGH REMAINS WELL OF THE WATERS WITH PRES GRADIENT
TIGHTENING UP AGAIN.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...WILL UPGRADE A PORTION OF THE WATCH FOR NE FL ON SUN
TO A WARNING WHERE RH VALUES SHOULD DROP WELL BELOW 35%. OTHER
SECTION OF WATCH A LITTLE MORE MARGINAL SO WILL LEAVE AS WATCH FOR
NOW. THE GA FIRE WX WATCH ALSO LOOKS MARGINAL FOR NEEDED WIND
CRITERIA SO WILL LEAVE ALONG AND LET MID-SHIFT UPGRADE OR DROP.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  82  54  76  45 /  20  30   0   0
SSI  76  59  72  52 /  10  20   0   0
JAX  83  59  75  50 /  20  10   0   0
SGJ  80  61  74  55 /  10  10   0   0
GNV  83  60  79  48 /  10  10   0   0
OCF  83  61  81  50 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ALACHUA-BAKER-
     BRADFORD-CLAY-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-
     MARION-NASSAU-PUTNAM-ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR ALACHUA-BAKER-BRADFORD-CLAY-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-GILCHRIST-
     HAMILTON-MARION-NASSAU-PUTNAM-SUWANNEE-UNION.

GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR APPLING-
     ATKINSON-BACON-BRANTLEY-CHARLTON-CLINCH-COASTAL CAMDEN-
     COASTAL GLYNN-COFFEE-ECHOLS-INLAND CAMDEN-INLAND GLYNN-JEFF
     DAVIS-PIERCE-WARE-WAYNE.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR APPLING-BACON-COFFEE-JEFF DAVIS-WAYNE.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE-FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE-ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
     FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-ST AUGUSTINE
     TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM.

&&

DEESE/SHASHY/KERNS

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