Areal Flood Warning 21, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
250 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2008

...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES AS WELL
AS PUTNAM AND CLAY COUNTIES...
...WIND ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR MOST INLAND COUNTIES...
...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR ALL AREAS...

.SHORT TERM...TODAY-SUNDAY. T.S. FAY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF
TOWARD THE WNW WITH DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE AFFECTING THE REGION.
OVERNIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY ANTICIPATE SEVERAL RAINBANDS PIVOTING
AROUND THE CWA WITH HEAVIEST ONES OVER THE ERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT. HAVE ELECTED TO EXTEND THE
LAKE WIND AND WIND ADVISORIES UNTIL LATE TONIGHT AND EXTEND THE
FLOOD WATCH INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. RAINFALL TOTALS PER RADAR SHOW
ESTIMATES IN EXCESS OF 12 INCHES IN SOME AREAS OVER THE ERN ZONES.

SATURDAY...SELY MID LEVEL FLOW AROUND 25 TO 40 KT AND DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE WILL STILL SUPPORT CATEGORICAL POPS OVER A GOOD PORTION OF
THE AREA. GOOD DIVERGENT FLOW ALSO NOTED PER GFS GUIDANCE AND LOW
LEVELS STILL CONVERGENCE WITH INDIVIDUAL RAINBANDS CONTINUING OVER
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE MENTIONED THROUGH
SATURDAY.

BY SUNDAY...BEST TROPICAL MOISTURE AND LOW AND MID LEVEL LIFT WILL
BE TOWARD THE WRN ZONES BUT ANTICIPATE COASTAL AREAS HAVE A GOOD
CHANCE OF SEEING SHOWER ACTIVITY. A W-E POP DISTRIBUTION IS PLANNED.
MORE VEERED FLOW FROM THE SOUTH SHOULD RESULT IN WARMER TEMPS.
ON MONDAY...MORE IN THE WAY OF SCT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
IS ANTICIPATED AS REMNANTS OF FAY SHIFT AWAY FROM THE AREA.
HAVE ADVERTISED 50% MOST AREAS.

.LONG TERM...TUE-FRI. REMNANTS OF FAY ARE FORECAST TO MEANDER OVER
THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. LOCALLY...DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME WILL
MAINTAIN HIGH ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND LINGERING DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED
WITH BROAD CIRCULATION OF FAY TO WARRANT CHANCE POPS THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONTINUING TEMPO LIFR CONDS IN HEAVY RAINBANDS AT COASTAL TAF SITES
ALTHOUGH A SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT MAY BE SEEN BY 20Z OR SO IF CURRENT
RAINBAND TRIES TO MOVE OFF TO THE NORTH AND NEXT RAINBAND SETS UP
WEST OF THE COASTAL TAF SITES. KGNV WILL LIKELY BE SET-UP UNDER NEXT
RAIN BAND THAT WILL COME IN OFF OF APALACHEE BAY. TAFS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE UPDATED AS NEEDED BUT SOME IMPROVEMENT TO IFR/MVFR CONDS WILL
BE SEEN AT COASTAL TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. STRONG WINDS JUST OFF THE
SURFACE WILL CONTINUE TO LEAD TO LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
DECISION WILL NEED TO BE MADE FOR NEXT FAY ADVISORY ON WHETHER TO
CONTINUE TS WARNINGS OVER THE ATLC WATERS. TS FORCE WIND GUSTS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS OTHERWISE WILL SEE DECREASING
TREND OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH WINDS/SEAS FALLING BELOW 20
KNOTS AND 7 FEET BY SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  74  84  73  86 /  80  80  60  60
SSI  76  82  76  84 /  80  70  50  50
JAX  75  83  74  85 /  80  80  50  60
SGJ  76  83  76  84 /  80  70  40  50
GNV  74  84  73  86 /  90  90  70  60
OCF  74  84  73  86 /  80  80  60  60

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR ALACHUA-BAKER-
     BRADFORD-CLAY-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-
     MARION-NASSAU-PUTNAM-ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION.

     TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR CLAY-
     DUVAL-FLAGLER-NASSAU-PUTNAM-ST JOHNS.

     TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR DUVAL-FLAGLER-NASSAU-ST JOHNS.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ALACHUA-BAKER-
     BRADFORD-COLUMBIA-GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-MARION-SUWANNEE-UNION.

GA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR APPLING-ATKINSON-
     BACON-BRANTLEY-CHARLTON-CLINCH-COASTAL CAMDEN-COASTAL GLYNN-
     COFFEE-ECHOLS-INLAND CAMDEN-INLAND GLYNN-JEFF DAVIS-PIERCE-
     WARE-WAYNE.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR APPLING-
     ATKINSON-BACON-BRANTLEY-CHARLTON-CLINCH-COFFEE-ECHOLS-JEFF
     DAVIS-PIERCE-WARE-WAYNE.

     TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR
     COASTAL CAMDEN-COASTAL GLYNN-INLAND CAMDEN-INLAND GLYNN.

     TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR COASTAL CAMDEN-COASTAL GLYNN.

AM...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH
     FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA
     BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20
     NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL
     OUT 20 NM-ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE-ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM.

&&

SHASHY/HESS/KEEGAN

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
456 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2008

GAZ150-162-163-222200-
CLINCH-ECHOLS-WARE-
456 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2008

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR CLINCH...
SOUTHEASTERN WARE AND NORTHEASTERN ECHOLS COUNTIES FOR STRONG WINDS
AND FUNNEL CLOUDS VALID UNTIL 600 PM EDT...

AT 456 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF DU PONT TO 9 MILES NORTH OF FARGO TO 16 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
FARGO...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 46 MPH. THESE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND FARGO...DU PONT AND HOMERVILLE THROUGH 600
PM EDT. GUSTY WINDS OF 35 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH
POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE. DOPPLER RADAR HAS INDICATED WEAK ROTATION
WITHIN THIS STORM. TORNADOES MAY DEVELOP WITH LITTLE OR NO ADVANCE
WARNING.

THE AREA REMAINS UNDER A TORNADO WATCH.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

ENYEDI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
528 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0435 PM     TORNADO          WSW HASTINGS            29.71N 81.51W
08/22/2008                   ST. JOHNS          FL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EMERGENCY RESPONSE OFFICIALS ARE RESPONDING TO TORNADO
            DAMAGE AT THE KANGAROO EXPRESS ALONG CHURCH STREET IN
            HASTINGS. THE DAMAGE OCCURRED AROUND 435 PM BASED ON WEAK
            DOPPER RADAR ROTATION SIGNATURE. A TORNADO PATH IS
            EVIDENT IN THE AREA AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT SAID THAT
            THEY HAVE A PICTURE OF THE FUNNEL CLOUD PRIOR OR JUST
            AFTER TOUCHDOWN IN THE HASTINGS AREA.

&&

AENYEDI

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