Wind Advisory 6, NWS Jackson, MS

Ashley County, AR, Chicot County, AR, Catahoula Parish, LA, Concordia Parish, LA, East Carroll Parish, LA, Franklin Parish, LA, Madison Parish, LA, Morehouse Parish, LA, Richland Parish, LA, Tensas Parish, LA, West Carroll Parish, LA, Adams County, MS, Attala County, MS, Bolivar County, MS, Carroll County, MS, Choctaw County, MS, Claiborne County, MS, Copiah County, MS, Franklin County, MS, Grenada County, MS, Hinds County, MS, Holmes County, MS, Humphreys County, MS, Issaquena County, MS, Jefferson County, MS, Lawrence County, MS, Leake County, MS, Leflore County, MS, Lincoln County, MS, Madison County, MS, Montgomery County, MS, Rankin County, MS, Scott County, MS, Sharkey County, MS, Simpson County, MS, Sunflower County, MS, Warren County, MS, Washington County, MS, Webster County, MS, Yazoo County, MS

000 
WWUS74 KJAN 030729
NPWJAN

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
129 AM CST MON MAR 3 2008

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>029-032-
034>037-040>044-047>050-053>055-059>063-031530-
/O.CON.KJAN.WI.Y.0006.080303T1400Z-080304T0000Z/
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON-FRANKLIN-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-SUNFLOWER-
LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-
HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-LEAKE-WARREN-
HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-SIMPSON-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-
LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CROSSETT...NORTH CROSSETT...HAMBURG...
WEST CROSSETT...DERMOTT...LAKE VILLAGE...EUDORA...BASTROP...
OAK GROVE...EPPS...LAKE PROVIDENCE...RAYVILLE...DELHI...
TALLULAH...WINNSBORO...JONESVILLE...HARRISONBURG...NEWELLTON...
ST. JOSEPH...WATERPROOF...VIDALIA...FERRIDAY...WEST FERRIDAY...
CLEVELAND...INDIANOLA...RULEVILLE...GREENWOOD...GRENADA...
VAIDEN...NORTH CARROLLTON...CARROLLTON...WINONA...EUPORA...
MABEN...MATHISTON...ACKERMAN...WEIR...GREENVILLE...BELZONI...
ISOLA...DURANT...TCHULA...LEXINGTON...PICKENS...GOODMAN...
KOSCIUSKO...MAYERSVILLE...ROLLING FORK...ANGUILLA...YAZOO CITY...
RIDGELAND...MADISON...CANTON...CARTHAGE...VICKSBURG...JACKSON...
PEARL...BRANDON...RICHLAND...FOREST...MORTON...PORT GIBSON...
CRYSTAL SPRINGS...HAZLEHURST...WESSON...MAGEE...MENDENHALL...
FAYETTE...NATCHEZ...BUDE...ROXIE...MEADVILLE...BROOKHAVEN...
MONTICELLO...NEW HEBRON
129 AM CST MON MAR 3 2008

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM
CST THIS AFTERNOON...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM
CST THIS AFTERNOON. 

A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT OF EAST TEXAS BY MIDDAY 
AND BRING WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. EXPECT
SOUTH WINDS TO INCREASE AND BECOME SUSTAINED BETWEEN 20 AND 25 MPH
BEFORE MIDDAY WITH SOME GUSTS AS HIGH AS 35 OR 40 MPH THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT AND LINE OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. BY LATE EVENING THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ALLOWING
FOR THE WIND TO SUBSIDE SOME AS IT SHIFTS NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 25 MPH.

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WINDS
THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.

WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 MILES PER HOUR CAN BRING DOWN LARGE LIMBS AND
ROTTED TREES CAUSING SERIOUS INJURY AND PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE
CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS DURING THESE STRONG WINDS.

$$

MSZ030-031-033-038-039-045-046-051-052-056>058-064>066-072>074-
031530-
/O.CON.KJAN.LW.Y.0014.080303T1400Z-080304T0000Z/
CLAY-LOWNDES-OKTIBBEHA-WINSTON-NOXUBEE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-NEWTON-
LAUDERDALE-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-
MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WEST POINT...COLUMBUS...STARKVILLE...
LOUISVILLE...MACON...BROOKSVILLE...PHILADELPHIA...PEARL RIVER...
DE KALB...SCOOBA...NEWTON...UNION...DECATUR...CONEHATTA...
MERIDIAN...TAYLORSVILLE...RALEIGH...BAY SPRINGS...HEIDELBERG...
QUITMAN...STONEWALL...SHUBUTA...PRENTISS...BASSFIELD...COLLINS...
MOUNT OLIVE...LAUREL...COLUMBIA...WEST HATTIESBURG...LUMBERTON...
PURVIS...HATTIESBURG
129 AM CST MON MAR 3 2008

...LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO
6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON...

A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO
6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON. 

A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT OF EAST TEXAS BY MIDDAY 
AND BRING WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. EXPECT
SOUTHEAST WINDS TO INCREASE AND BECOME SUSTAINED BETWEEN AROUND 20
MPH WITH SOME GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 MPH BY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL OCCUR
AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT AND LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. CLOSE
TO MIDNIGHT THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ALLOWING FOR THE WIND TO
SUBSIDE SOME.

A LAKE WIND ADVISORY INDICATES THAT WINDS WILL CAUSE ROUGH CHOP
ON AREA LAKES. SMALL BOATS WILL BE ESPECIALLY PRONE TO CAPSIZING.

WIND GUSTS OF 30 MILES PER HOUR OCCASIONALLY BRING DOWN LARGE LIMBS
AND ROTTED TREES CAUSING SERIOUS INJURY AND PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE
CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS DURING THESE STRONG WINDS.

$$

000 
WWUS74 KJAN 031654
NPWJAN

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1054 AM CST MON MAR 3 2008

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>029-032-
034>037-040>044-047>050-053>055-059>063-040000-
/O.CON.KJAN.WI.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-080304T0000Z/
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON-FRANKLIN-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-SUNFLOWER-
LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-
HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-LEAKE-WARREN-
HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-SIMPSON-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-
LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CROSSETT...NORTH CROSSETT...HAMBURG...
WEST CROSSETT...DERMOTT...LAKE VILLAGE...EUDORA...BASTROP...
OAK GROVE...EPPS...LAKE PROVIDENCE...RAYVILLE...DELHI...
TALLULAH...WINNSBORO...JONESVILLE...HARRISONBURG...NEWELLTON...
ST. JOSEPH...WATERPROOF...VIDALIA...FERRIDAY...WEST FERRIDAY...
CLEVELAND...INDIANOLA...RULEVILLE...GREENWOOD...GRENADA...
VAIDEN...NORTH CARROLLTON...CARROLLTON...WINONA...EUPORA...
MABEN...MATHISTON...ACKERMAN...WEIR...GREENVILLE...BELZONI...
ISOLA...DURANT...TCHULA...LEXINGTON...PICKENS...GOODMAN...
KOSCIUSKO...MAYERSVILLE...ROLLING FORK...ANGUILLA...YAZOO CITY...
RIDGELAND...MADISON...CANTON...CARTHAGE...VICKSBURG...JACKSON...
PEARL...BRANDON...RICHLAND...FOREST...MORTON...PORT GIBSON...
CRYSTAL SPRINGS...HAZLEHURST...WESSON...MAGEE...MENDENHALL...
FAYETTE...NATCHEZ...BUDE...ROXIE...MEADVILLE...BROOKHAVEN...
MONTICELLO...NEW HEBRON
1054 AM CST MON MAR 3 2008

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS
AFTERNOON...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON. 

A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO ARKANSAS AND LOUISIANA IS
BRINGING WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. EXPECT
SOUTH WINDS BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS AS HIGH AS 35 OR
40 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT
AND LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. BY LATE EVENING THE FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH ALLOWING FOR THE WIND TO SUBSIDE SOME AS IT SHIFTS NORTHWEST
AT 15 TO 25 MPH.

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WINDS
THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.

WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 MILES PER HOUR CAN BRING DOWN LARGE LIMBS
AND ROTTED TREES CAUSING SERIOUS INJURY AND PROPERTY DAMAGE.
EXERCISE CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS DURING THESE STRONG WINDS.

$$

MSZ030-031-033-038-039-045-046-051-052-056>058-064>066-072>074-
040000-
/O.CON.KJAN.LW.Y.0014.000000T0000Z-080304T0000Z/
CLAY-LOWNDES-OKTIBBEHA-WINSTON-NOXUBEE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-NEWTON-
LAUDERDALE-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-
MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WEST POINT...COLUMBUS...STARKVILLE...
LOUISVILLE...MACON...BROOKSVILLE...PHILADELPHIA...PEARL RIVER...
DE KALB...SCOOBA...NEWTON...UNION...DECATUR...CONEHATTA...
MERIDIAN...TAYLORSVILLE...RALEIGH...BAY SPRINGS...HEIDELBERG...
QUITMAN...STONEWALL...SHUBUTA...PRENTISS...BASSFIELD...COLLINS...
MOUNT OLIVE...LAUREL...COLUMBIA...WEST HATTIESBURG...LUMBERTON...
PURVIS...HATTIESBURG
1054 AM CST MON MAR 3 2008

...LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS
AFTERNOON...

A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS
AFTERNOON. 

A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION IS BRINGING BREEZY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA. EXPECT
SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 TO 35 
MPH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT AND
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. CLOSE TO MIDNIGHT THE FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH ALLOWING FOR THE WIND TO SUBSIDE SOME.

A LAKE WIND ADVISORY INDICATES THAT WINDS WILL CAUSE ROUGH CHOP
ON AREA LAKES. SMALL BOATS WILL BE ESPECIALLY PRONE TO CAPSIZING.

WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 MILES PER HOUR OCCASIONALLY BRING DOWN LARGE
LIMBS AND ROTTED TREES CAUSING SERIOUS INJURY AND PROPERTY
DAMAGE. EXERCISE CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS DURING THESE STRONG WINDS.

$$

EC

000 
WWUS74 KJAN 032106
NPWJAN

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
306 PM CST MON MAR 3 2008

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>029-032-
034>037-040>044-047>050-053>055-059>063-040515-
/O.EXB.KJAN.LW.Y.0014.080304T0000Z-080304T1200Z/
/O.CON.KJAN.WI.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-080304T0000Z/
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON-FRANKLIN-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-SUNFLOWER-
LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-
HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-LEAKE-WARREN-
HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-SIMPSON-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-
LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CROSSETT...NORTH CROSSETT...HAMBURG...
WEST CROSSETT...DERMOTT...LAKE VILLAGE...EUDORA...BASTROP...
OAK GROVE...EPPS...LAKE PROVIDENCE...RAYVILLE...DELHI...
TALLULAH...WINNSBORO...JONESVILLE...HARRISONBURG...NEWELLTON...
ST. JOSEPH...WATERPROOF...VIDALIA...FERRIDAY...WEST FERRIDAY...
CLEVELAND...INDIANOLA...RULEVILLE...GREENWOOD...GRENADA...
VAIDEN...NORTH CARROLLTON...CARROLLTON...WINONA...EUPORA...
MABEN...MATHISTON...ACKERMAN...WEIR...GREENVILLE...BELZONI...
ISOLA...DURANT...TCHULA...LEXINGTON...PICKENS...GOODMAN...
KOSCIUSKO...MAYERSVILLE...ROLLING FORK...ANGUILLA...YAZOO CITY...
RIDGELAND...MADISON...CANTON...CARTHAGE...VICKSBURG...JACKSON...
PEARL...BRANDON...RICHLAND...FOREST...MORTON...PORT GIBSON...
CRYSTAL SPRINGS...HAZLEHURST...WESSON...MAGEE...MENDENHALL...
FAYETTE...NATCHEZ...BUDE...ROXIE...MEADVILLE...BROOKHAVEN...
MONTICELLO...NEW HEBRON
306 PM CST MON MAR 3 2008

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS
AFTERNOON...
...LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM
CST TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST
TUESDAY. A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS
AFTERNOON. 

A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO ARKANSAS AND LOUISIANA
IS BRINGING WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
EXPECT SOUTH WINDS BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS AS HIGH
AS 40 TO 45 MPH LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT AND LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. DURING THE
EVENING THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ALLOWING FOR THE WIND TO SUBSIDE
SOME AS IT SHIFTS TO THE NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 25 MPH.

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WINDS
THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.

WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 MILES PER HOUR CAN BRING DOWN LARGE LIMBS
AND ROTTED TREES CAUSING SERIOUS INJURY AND PROPERTY DAMAGE.
EXERCISE CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS DURING THESE STRONG WINDS.

$$

MSZ030-031-033-038-039-045-046-051-052-056>058-064>066-072>074-
040515-
/O.EXT.KJAN.LW.Y.0014.000000T0000Z-080304T1200Z/
CLAY-LOWNDES-OKTIBBEHA-WINSTON-NOXUBEE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-NEWTON-
LAUDERDALE-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-
MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WEST POINT...COLUMBUS...STARKVILLE...
LOUISVILLE...MACON...BROOKSVILLE...PHILADELPHIA...PEARL RIVER...
DE KALB...SCOOBA...NEWTON...UNION...DECATUR...CONEHATTA...
MERIDIAN...TAYLORSVILLE...RALEIGH...BAY SPRINGS...HEIDELBERG...
QUITMAN...STONEWALL...SHUBUTA...PRENTISS...BASSFIELD...COLLINS...
MOUNT OLIVE...LAUREL...COLUMBIA...WEST HATTIESBURG...LUMBERTON...
PURVIS...HATTIESBURG
306 PM CST MON MAR 3 2008

...LAKE WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY...

THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY. 

A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION IS BRINGING BREEZY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA. EXPECT
SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS AS HIGH AS 35 MPH
THROUGH THIS EVENING...AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT AND LINE OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT THE FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH ALLOWING FOR THE WIND TO SUBSIDE SOME AS IT SHIFTS TO THE
NORTHWEST.

A LAKE WIND ADVISORY INDICATES THAT WINDS WILL CAUSE ROUGH CHOP
ON AREA LAKES. SMALL BOATS WILL BE ESPECIALLY PRONE TO CAPSIZING.

WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 MILES PER HOUR OCCASIONALLY BRING DOWN
LARGE LIMBS AND ROTTED TREES CAUSING SERIOUS INJURY AND PROPERTY
DAMAGE. EXERCISE CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS DURING THESE STRONG WINDS.

$$

EC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
410 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2008

...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK MONDAY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING
INCLUDING TORNADOES...

UPDATE:

CONCERNING SEVERE WEATHER RISK...BASED ON LATEST 12Z GFS/NAM
GUIDANCE...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING ON TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THIS
MAJOR SEVERE WEATHER EVENT. IT LOOKS LIKE THE GREATEST RISK FOR
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER...ESPECIALLY STRONG TORNADOES...WILL
ULTIMATELY BE FROM THE ARKLAMISS DELTA REGION TO THE INTERSTATE 55
CORRIDOR BETWEEN 3 PM AND 10 PM MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN
PRIMARILY ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-55 CORRIDOR TO THE AL BORDER FROM
10 PM UNTIL 2 AM. OVER NE/EC MS...THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT
LOW-LEVEL TRAJECTORIES WILL HAVE SLIGHTLY LONGER DURATION ACROSS
LAND AND THIS COULD KEEP INSTABILITY/SEVERE WEATHER RISK SLIGHTLY
LOWER IN THE GOLDEN TRIANGLE REGION...BUT THAT IS THE ONLY POTENTIAL
HOLD-BACK NOTED WITH THIS EVENT...ALL ELSE POINTS TO AN IMMINENT
MAJOR SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK AS DISCUSSED BELOW. /EC/

ALSO OF CONCERN WILL BE STRONG GRADIENT WINDS MIXING TO SURFACE
AHEAD OF DEEP CONVECTION. HAVE ISSUED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA TOMORROW (NPW TO BE ISSUED ONCE TODAYS NPW EXPIRES). IT
IS POSSIBLE THAT A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED OVER THE DELTA
REGION AND THAT POSSIBILITY IS CURRENTLY UNDER REVIEW. /EC/

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SHORT TERM(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)THE MAIN
FOCUS FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS IS ON A LARGE STORM SYSTEM EXPECTED TO
BRING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE ARKLAMISS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
MONDAY EVENING.

TONIGHT...SOME HIGHER CLOUDS WILL START COMING AT US FROM THE BIG
UPPER DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. OVERALL TIMING OF
EVENTS HAS SLOWED DOWN ENOUGH WHERE THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF
RAIN BEFORE MORNING WILL BE IN FAR NORTHWEST ZONES AND SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED WITH ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY. SOUTH WINDS
COULD CONTINUE TO GUST NEAR LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA OVERNIGHT UP
IN THE DELTA SO SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO MONITOR. EXPECT LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE MILD 50S AND I STUCK WITH LATEST MAV GUIDANCE IN
THAT REGARD. /BB/

OVERALL TIMING OF THE STORM SYSTEM HEADED INTO THE ARKLAMISS FOR
MONDAY HAS CONTINUED TO GRADUAL TREND OF SLOWING DOWN. NOW IT
APPEARS SIGNIFICANT CHANCES (>30 PERCENT) FOR STORMS SHOULD NOT
CROSS THE MS RIVER UNTIL LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH ZONES IN EASTERN
MS LIKELY REMAINING DRY UNTIL MONDAY EVENING. THE SLOWER TREND HAS
ALSO BEEN ACCOMPANIED BY AN OVERALL NORTHWEST TREND OF THE UPPER LOW
AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AS IT TRACKS THROUGH THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. THIS TREND ESSENTIALLY
FURTHER REDUCES THE CHANCES OF SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM...WHILE INCREASING CHANCES OF SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE WEATHER IN OUR NECK-OF-THE-WOODS ON THE SYSTEMS FRONTSIDE.
REASONING IS THAT THE FARTHER NORTHWEST TRACK OF THE STORMS
FEATURES SHOULD ALLOW HIGHER LEVELS OF MOISTURE TO PENETRATE NORTH
INTO THE ARKLAMISS FROM OUT OF THE GULF COAST...THEREBY INCREASING
INSTABILITY. OTHER MORE SUBTLE DYNAMICAL REASONS GIVE THE EVOLVING
LOOK OF THE POTENTIAL SYSTEM STRONGER CORRELATIONS WITH PAST SEVERE
WEATHER SETUPS AFFECTING THE REGION.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED NEARLY ALL OF THE FORECAST
AREA IN A MODERATE RISK CLASSIFICATION FOR SEVERE WEATHER FOR
TOMORROW. THEIR ASSESSMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HAIL...DAMAGING
WIND AND TORNADOES IMPACTING THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY SEEMS ON THE
MARK. THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS EXTREMELY POTENT AND WILL CONTAIN
ENORMOUS AMOUNTS OF WIND SHEAR AND ATMOSPHERIC LIFT. PROGGED
INSTABILITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE TERRIBLY HIGH IN SOME AREAS...BUT
IT SHOULD BE ENOUGH FUEL TO ALLOW FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PRODUCTION
GIVEN OTHER VERY FAVORABLE ASPECTS OF THE STORM SYSTEM. DETAILED
MODEL DIAGNOSIS SUGGESTS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ERUPT WELL WEST OF
THE MS RIVER THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON MONDAY WHILE AN UNSTABLE WARM
SECTOR DEVELOPS OVER WESTERN ZONES. THROUGH AFTERNOON THESE WESTERN
ZONES WILL BE VULNERABLE TO SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS MOVING IN...WITH
ALL RISKS OF SEVERE WEATHER (INCLUDING STRONG TORNADOES) POSSIBLE
WITH THIS ACTIVITY. MODEL CONSENSUS THEN SUGGESTS THAT ACTIVITY
SHOULD START TO BECOME ORIENTED INTO MORE OF A SQUALL LINE DURING THE
EVENING HOURS...WITH THIS ACTIVITY PUSHING THROUGH EASTERN ZONES
THROUGH MIDNIGHT OR SO. MAIN RISKS WITH THE SQUALL LINE WILL COME
FROM DAMAGING WINDS GUSTS OVER 70 MPH...EMBEDDED TORNADOES...AND
HAIL. THERE IS STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW FAR EAST SUPERCELL
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR IN THE CWA...AND TIMING OF EVENTS IS
STILL SUBJECT TO SOME CHANGE GIVEN TRENDS OF RECENT MODEL RUNS.

AFTER THE COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH THERE SHOULD STILL BE AT LEAST
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH THE REST OF THE MONDAY NIGHT
WITH COLD AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW (WHICH SHOULD BE
IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF WESTERN OR MIDDLE TN). THE TREND OF MODELS
SUGGESTS THAT THE MAIN COLD CORE OF THE UPPER LOW SHOULD PASS OFF TO
THE NORTHWEST OF THE DELTA...WHICH WOULD GREATLY LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR
SNOWFALL PRODUCTION. HOWEVER...GIVEN A SOMEWHAT POOR CONSENSUS ON
TRACK OF THE COLD CORE LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY I HAVE
STILL KEPT SLIGHT CHANCES OF SNOW IN FOR FAR NORTHWEST ZONES BEFORE
DAYBREAK TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT TEMPS DROPPING RAPIDLY WITH
VERY GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. /BB/

LONG TERM(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...

BEYOND TUESDAY CONDITIONS WILL QUIET DOWN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF
THE REGION WEDNESDAY. FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK...THE
AREA WILL SEE A COUPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH WHICH
WILL BRING SHOWERS TO THE AREA.  THERE SHOULD NOT BE MUCH IN THE WAY
OF INSTABILITY OR FORCING TO GIVE MORE THAN SOME SHOWERS AROUND THE
AREA WITH THESE DISTURBANCES. MODELS ARE IN A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT ON
TIMING. HAVE WENT AHEAD AND REMAINED WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS A RESULT. THIS
PORTION OF THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION IS ATTACHED. /14/

 SURFACE RIDGING AND A STABLE WNW FLOW PATTERN DOMINATES THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK WITH AT LEAST ONE MID LEVEL TROUGH PASSING THURSDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY INTO THE BROAD ERN CONUS LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS.
MOISTURE APPEARS QUITE LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM AS LATEST GFS HAS
TRENDED MORE TOWARD THE ENSEMBLE MEAN/ECMWF SOLUTIONS OF A VERY WEAK
GULF LOW SYSTEM TRACKING INTO CENTRAL FL FRIDAY. THIS TREND HAS
RESULTED IN LOWER POPS FOR LIGHT RAINS FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND WILL NOT ARGUE WITH MEX MOS AT THIS
POINT. NO MAJOR WEATHER SYSTEMS EXPECTED INTO THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK
AT THIS POINT.

MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE TEMPERATURES JUST BELOW CLIMATOLOGY AFTER
WEDNESDAY AND RIGHT INTO NEXT WEEKEND. HOWEVER...ENSEMBLE MOS
SPORTING QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH STANDARD DEVIATIONS IN TEMP
GUIDANCE RUNNING 3-4 FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. ENSEMBLE MEAN
NUMBERS LOOK MOST REASONABLE FOR NOW./40/

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS...BUT STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT...
PRIMARILY AFFECTING GWO/JAN/GLH...AND THEN POSSIBLY SPREADING EAST
TO AFFECT HBG AND MEI/GTR AFTER SUNRISE. IT LOOKS LIKE WINDS/MIXING
WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP STRATUS FROM GETTING INTO IFR/LIFR
CATEGORIES...BUT THAT IS SOMETHING TO KEEP IN MIND. /EC/

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 6 PM MONDAY.
LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 6 PM MONDAY.
AR...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 6 PM MONDAY.

&&

EC/BB/14/40

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
255 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2008

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
032015-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON-FRANKLIN-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-SUNFLOWER-
LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-
OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-NOXUBEE-
ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-
SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-
CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-
JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
255 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND MONDAY

SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER WITH WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS... STRONG
TORNADOES...AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
MONDAY NIGHT.

AS A LARGE AND POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA...AN
UNSTABLE AND MOIST AIRMASS WILL BEGIN SURGING NORTH FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO EARLY MONDAY. AHEAD OF THE STRONG COLD FRONT...THIS MOISTURE
WILL COMBINE WITH VERY STRONG WIND SHEAR TO BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR A
MAJOR SEVERE WEATHER EVENT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP AS EARLY AS MIDDAY MONDAY WEST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...BUT THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS
WILL EXIST FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING...AS SCATTERED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND FORM INTO
A SQUALL LINE. ACTIVITY OCCURRING WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 55 CORRIDOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MONDAY EVENING WILL HAVE THE GREATEST
CHANCE OF PRODUCING STRONG TORNADOES...WHILE ACTIVITY MONDAY EVENING
ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 55 CORRIDOR WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST
CHANCE OF PRODUCING WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS. PLEASE CONTINUE TO
MONITOR LATER FORECASTS CONCERNING THIS IMMINENT SEVERE WEATHER
OUTBREAK.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY

THE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO END OVER EASTERN
MISSISSIPPI AROUND 3 AM TUESDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
NIGHT.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

EC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
300 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2008

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
030415-
ADAMS-ASHLEY-ATTALA-BOLIVAR-CARROLL-CATAHOULA-CHICOT-CHOCTAW-
CLAIBORNE-CLARKE-CLAY-CONCORDIA-COPIAH-COVINGTON-EAST CARROLL-
FORREST-FRANKLIN LA-FRANKLIN MS-GRENADA-HINDS-HOLMES-HUMPHREYS-
ISSAQUENA-JASPER-JEFFERSON-JEFFERSON DAVIS-JONES-KEMPER-LAMAR-
LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEAKE-LEFLORE-LINCOLN-LOWNDES-MADISON LA-
MADISON MS-MARION-MONTGOMERY-MOREHOUSE-NESHOBA-NEWTON-NOXUBEE-
OKTIBBEHA-RANKIN-RICHLAND-SCOTT-SHARKEY-SIMPSON-SMITH-SUNFLOWER-
TENSAS-WARREN-WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WEST CARROLL-WINSTON-YAZOO-
300 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2008

...SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
NIGHT...

SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER WITH WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS...STRONG
TORNADOES...AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
MONDAY NIGHT.

AS A LARGE AND POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA...AN
UNSTABLE AND MOIST AIRMASS WILL BEGIN SURGING NORTH FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO EARLY MONDAY. AHEAD OF THE STRONG COLD FRONT...THIS MOISTURE
WILL COMBINE WITH VERY STRONG WIND SHEAR TO BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR A
MAJOR SEVERE WEATHER EVENT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP AS EARLY AS MIDDAY MONDAY WEST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...BUT THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS
WILL EXIST FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING...AS SCATTERED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND FORM INTO
A SQUALL LINE.

ACTIVITY OCCURRING WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 55 CORRIDOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MONDAY EVENING WILL HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCE OF
PRODUCING STRONG TORNADOES...WHILE ACTIVITY MONDAY EVENING ALONG AND
EAST OF INTERSTATE 55 CORRIDOR WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF
PRODUCING WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS. PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR
LATER FORECASTS CONCERNING THIS POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK.

EC