Tornado Warning 294, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
530 PM CST TUE DEC 9 2008

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY SEVERE WEATHER ONGOING THIS
AFTERNOON AS A BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS FORMED AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CWFA LATER TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT
WAS ANALYZED PUSHING THROUGH CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND INTO NORTHWEST
LOUISIANA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THE FRONT THE BAND OF
THUNDERSTORMS WORKING OFF A FAVORABLY SHEARED WARM MOIST AND
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. GREATEST FORCING TONIGHT IS STILL EXPECTED IN
THE NORTH BUT LOWER 60 DEW POINTS HAVE HAD A HARD TIME MAKING IT UP
TO HIGHWAY 82. GREATEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IS STILL EXPECTED
OVER THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA. STRONG GRADIENT WINDS
AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SHOULD MEET LOCAL LAKE WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA TONIGHT AND THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN
EXTENDED. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES AND TRAINING OF THE STORMS
WITHIN THE LINE HAS LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING IN THE WEST...A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE CWFA TONIGHT.
RAINFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF TWO INCHES PER HOUR HAVE BEEN OBSERVED.
WIDESPREAD TWO TO FOUR INCHES OF RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT OVER
MOST OF THE AREA. JUDGING FROM LATEST MSAS ANALYSIS...THE GFS IS A
LITTLE TOO FAST WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT THROUGH OUR CWFA
TONIGHT BUT THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE MOVING INTO OUR SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH THE COLD FRONT WILL BE
SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA WEDNESDAY MORNINGS MODELS STILL SHOW THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SECOND SURFACE LOW ALONG THE COLD FRONT TO OUR
SOUTHEAST. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO DIGGING UPPER TROUGH AND FORMING
CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY. THERE IS STILL
CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCE IN THE MODELS WITH THE TRACK OF THIS LOW AND
WITH THE ASSOCIATED CHANCES OF SNOW FOR THE REGION. THE ECWMF IS
FARTHEST NORTH AND FARTHER EAST WITH THE LOW COMPARED WITH THE NAM
AND GFS. THE ACTUAL TRACK OF THE LOW WILL DETERMINE ANY
TROWAL...DEFORMATION...BANDED SNOW AXIS. SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE
STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. WL
NOT MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AND KEEP MENTION
OF SNOW MIXING IN AND/OR CHANGING OVER BEFORE SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION ENDS THURSDAY. IN ADDITION TO RAIN/SNOW CHANCES...A
COLD AND WINDY DAY LOOKS ON TAP FOR THURSDAY AS HIGHS STRUGGLE TO
CLIMB OUT OF THE 30S.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE MDLS GET INTO
DECENT AGREEMENT HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND BUT BY NEXT WEEK THEY
REALLY START TO DIVERGE.

PRECIP SHOULD COME TO AN END THU EVENING/OVERNIGHT AND SKIES WILL
START TO CLEAR OUT. TEMPS ARE A DIFFICULT PROPOSITION RIGHT NOW B/C
A LOT WILL DEPEND IF WE HAVE SNOW ON THE GROUND. IF THERE IS THEN
LOWS FRI MORNING WILL BE COLDER THAN EXPECTED. DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY I WILL JUST STICK WITH THE MEX GUI FOR NOW. HIGHS WILL
ALSO BE BELOW NORMAL WITH SOME LOCATIONS POSSIBLY QUITE COOL IF(BIG
IF THERE) IS SNOW ON THE GROUND.

THIS WEEKEND AND HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK THE PATTERN WILL FINALLY
CHANGE AND TEMPS WILL MODERATE WITH RAIN CHANCE INCREASING NEXT
WEEK. I HAVE JUST STUCK WITH THE MEX FOR THIS PERIOD FOR BOTH TEMPS
AND POPS. /CAB/

&&

.AVIATION...WINDY AND RAINY CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION.
SUSTAINED WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 15 TO 25 KTS IN MOST LOCATIONS WITH
GUSTS TO 30KTS. THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTS TO 50KTS. MOST OF
THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND
WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT GLH/TVR/HEZ THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z. AN AREA OF
RAIN HAS MOVED INTO HBG AND WILL REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE. THERE MAY
BE OCCASIONAL DOWNPOURS THAT WILL BRIEFLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO
LIFR CONDITIONS. THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH INTO MEI
THROUGH THE SAME TIME PERIOD. THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE MOVING
INTO JAN/GWO BY 00Z ALSO. GTR WILL NOT SEE TOO MANY IMPACTS UNTIL
AFTER 00Z...WHEN LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE AREA.
AFTER 01Z...THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD SHIFT EAST. THERE MAY
BE A FEW STORMS LINGERING AROUND GLH...BUT MOST OF THE IMPACTS WILL
BE AT GWO/JAN UNTIL ABOUT 4-5Z. THE ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT TO
GTR/MEI/HBG AFTER 4Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH 8 OR 9Z. MVFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF LIFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH 18Z. THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE AREA
FROM 12-18Z WEDNESDAY. /07/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       47  49  34  41 / 100  73  94  70
MERIDIAN      51  54  37  42 / 100  79  94  79
VICKSBURG     45  46  34  42 /  94  72  91  57
HATTIESBURG   53  55  38  42 /  99  94  85  50
NATCHEZ       45  47  34  42 /  98  90  97  53
GREENVILLE    41  45  33  46 /  84  45  71  45
GREENWOOD     43  45  33  45 /  94  43  73  63

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR MSZ026>033-
     036>039-042>066-072>074.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR MSZ028>033-037>039-
     043>046-048>066-072>074.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR MSZ018-019-025-
     034-035-040-041.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MSZ018-019-025-
     034-035-040-041.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR LAZ024-026.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR LAZ007>009-015-
     016-023>026.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LAZ007>009-015-
     016-023>026.

AR...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR ARZ074-075.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ARZ074-075.

&&

SHORT TERM: 22
LONG TERM: CAB
AVIATION: 07

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
557 PM CST TUE DEC 09 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0459 PM     TORNADO          3 SE YAZOO CITY         32.83N 90.38W
12/09/2008                   YAZOO              MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES DOWN ACROSS HWY 49 AND LARGE SIGN BLOWN DOWN

&&

AEG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
619 PM CST TUE DEC 9 2008

MSZ063>065-100050-
COVINGTON MS-LAWRENCE MS-JEFFERSON DAVIS MS-
619 PM CST TUE DEC 9 2008

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 45 MPH WINDS WAS
LOCATED 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CARSON AT 619 PM CST...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 45 MPH.

THIS STORM IS INTENSIFYING AND COULD BECOME SEVERE RAPIDLY.

PEOPLE IN JEFFERSON DAVIS...EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN LAWRENCE AND
NORTHWESTERN COVINGTON COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

BYB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
644 PM CST TUE DEC 09 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0517 PM     TORNADO          COXBURG                 33.00N 90.21W
12/09/2008                   HOLMES             MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN AND A HOUSE DAMAGED IN COXBURG.

&&

JFAIRLY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
705 PM CST TUE DEC 09 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0620 PM     TORNADO          3 ESE COXBURG           32.98N 90.16W
12/09/2008                   HOLMES             MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN. HOUSES AND A CHURCH DAMAGED.

&&

JFAIRLY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
716 PM CST TUE DEC 09 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0650 PM     TSTM WND DMG     6 NW YOKENA             32.24N 91.01W
12/09/2008                   WARREN             MS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREES DOWN. DAMAGE TO VEHICLES WITH BROKEN WINDOWS AND
            BRANCHES IN THEM. BRIEF FUNNEL CLOUD ALSO WAS REPORTED.

&&

JFAIRLY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
727 PM CST TUE DEC 09 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0450 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 S YAZOO CITY          32.83N 90.41W
12/09/2008  E60.00 MPH       YAZOO              MS   STORM CHASER

            POWER LINES AND LARGE LIMBS DOWN.

0635 PM     TSTM WND GST     WEST                    33.20N 89.78W
12/09/2008  E60.00 MPH       HOLMES             MS   PUBLIC

0645 PM     TSTM WND DMG     KILMICHAEL              33.44N 89.57W
12/09/2008                   MONTGOMERY         MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN. HOUSE DAMAGED.

0720 PM     HAIL             VICKSBURG               32.33N 90.87W
12/09/2008  E1.00 INCH       WARREN             MS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NICKEL TO QUARTER HAIL IN VICKSBURG.

&&

JFAIRLY