Severe Thunderstorm Warning 780, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
315 PM CDT TUE OCT 7 2008

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RUC
ANALYSIS SHOWS A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER OKLAHOMA THAT IS
PROGGED TO MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST AND FORM A CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI WEDNESDAY. THIS CLOSED LOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS GEORGIA THURSDAY. THE DEVELOPING CLOSED LOW WAS
HELPING DRIVE A COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON TOWARD OUR CWFA. LATEST
SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED THE COLD FRONT OVER WESTERN ARKANSAS
DROPPING SOUTHWEST ACROSS NORTHWEST LOUISIANA. A BAND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FORMED AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA
EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON AND HAS SINCE OUTRUN THE COLD FRONT AND HAS
MOVED THE ACTIVITY OVER INTO MISSISSIPPI. AHEAD OF THE MAIN
CONVECTION THERE WAS A WARM MOIST AIRMASS. SURFACE DEW POINTS WERE
IN THE LOWER 70S AND TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE LOWER 80S. RAIN COOLED
AIR HAS KNOCKED TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE 70S OVER OUR PARISHES AND
ARKANSAS COUNTIES. THIS WILL LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IN OUR WEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE THE
FRONT MOVES IN. WL CONTINUE MENTION OF THE POSSIBILITY FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS OVER OUR MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES THIS EVENING. THE COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE JUST WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT 00Z
AND BE NEAR INTERSTATE 55 BY MIDNIGHT. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD CLEAR
MISSISSIPPI BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF THE
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT WILL
MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI WILL RESULT IN PATCHY DRIZZLE IN
THE NORTH INTO THE AFTERNOON. CAA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AND THE
PROXIMITY OF THE CLOSED LOW WILL RESULT IN A COOLER DAY WEDNESDAY.
MAV GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES HAVE COME IN A LITTLE TOO COOL. WL LEAN
TOWARD 00Z MAV TEMPS WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S
NORTH TO THE UPPER 70S SOUTH. THE CLOSED LOW WILL SHIFT EAST
THURSDAY AND RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL INCREASE OVER OUR
REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO WARMER AFTERNOON HIGHS BACK ABOVE NORMAL
THURSDAY. THE DRY AIRMASS ALONG WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL LEAD TO
A COUPLE OF COOL NIGHTS THOUGH. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE BACK INTO THE
50S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS. /22/

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...STUCK WITH GUIDANCE AGAIN. THE
GFS CONTINUES TO DRY THE AREA OUT...HOPEFULLY THE FORECAST WILL NOT
FLIP FLOP. POP VALUES DROPPED FROM 60 PERCENT TO 10 PERCENT FOR THE
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. CONSIDERED
USING A BLEND AND MAINTAINING LOW CHANCE VALUES JUST IN CASE THE
SYSTEM SPEEDS UP. HOWEVER...THE EUROPEAN KEEPS THE AREA DRY AFTER
WEDNESDAY. IT HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY DRY FOR THE PAST FEW RUNS. TOOK
RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. USED A
BLEND OF GUIDANCE AND CLIMATOLOGY FOR TEMPS. RAISED HIGHS AND LOWS
NEARLY EVERYDAY.

A SURFACE HIGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY. BY SATURDAY...AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE EAST/SOUTHEAST STATES AND HELP
KEEP MOISTURE AND RAIN TO THE WEST. THE RIDGE SEEMS TO HOLD THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. RETURN FLOW BY THE WEEKEND WILL WARM THINGS
UP...HIGHS MAY APPROACH 90 SUNDAY. BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE
MODELS NOW SUGGEST THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
AROUND WEDNESDAY. GUIDANCE SHOWED SOME VERY SMALL RAIN
CHANCES...BEING DAY 6 AND 7 OPTED TO KEEP THE AREA DRY. WILL LEAVE
THE HWO CLEAR FOR THE EXTENDED. /07/

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THIS AFTERNOON VFR/MVFR CEILINGS(AROUND 2500 FT)
WERE NOTED ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
SOME BRIEF SMALL BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER WERE ALSO NOTED. OCCASIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE WITH PERIODS OF FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAINFALL. ISOLATED EPISODES OF DAMAGING
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE IN STRONGER
STORMS. EXPECT THE STRONGEST STORMS TO AFFECT KGLH...KGWO...KJAN FOR
THIS AFTERNOON...THEN AFFECT NEAR KJAN...KGTR...KMEI AND KHBG SITES
FOR TONIGHT. PUT IN WIND GUSTS OF 35G45KT AT TAF SITES WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS FOR THE TAF PERIOD
ACROSS THE WEST AND WIDESPREAD IFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE EAST HALF.
EXPECT THE IFR CEILINGS TO HOLD THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING./17/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       59  76  54  80 /  73   5   0   0
MERIDIAN      61  76  54  81 /  96  22   0   0
VICKSBURG     57  77  52  81 /  51   2   0   0
HATTIESBURG   64  78  53  81 /  82  11   0   0
NATCHEZ       58  77  51  80 /  49   2   0   0
GREENVILLE    59  75  53  83 /  48   4   0   0
GREENWOOD     59  74  53  81 /  69   7   1   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM:22
LONG TERM: 07
AVIATION: 17

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
140 PM CDT TUE OCT 7 2008

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
081745-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-
SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-
CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-
NOXUBEE-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-
WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-
SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-
LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
1244 PM CDT TUE OCT 7 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR .

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY

ISOLATED SEVERE TO STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
ARKLAMISS REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.
THIS WILL BE MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 55 FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AS WELL AS ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 55 FOR TONIGHT.

ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL PRODUCE PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL. THE ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO
50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN
PONDING WATER ON ROADWAYS AND IN LOW LYING AREAS. THE BEST CHANCE OF
STRONG...POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS WILL OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON IN
THE WEST HALF AND OVERNIGHT IN THE EAST HALF OF THE ARKLAMISS.

A COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT WITH A DEVELOPING STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT. THE
COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY...DAY TIME HEATING AND WIND SHEAR WILL
CAUSE A LINE OF ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO MOVE EAST ACROSS
THE REGION. THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA FOR
THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL MOVE OVER THE EASTERN AREAS FOR TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

17

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
101 PM CDT TUE OCT 7 2008

MSZ072-071840-
MARION MS-
101 PM CDT TUE OCT 7 2008

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE
HAIL...AND 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
PICKWICK AT 101 PM CDT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 14 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING IS ALSO EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

PEOPLE IN SOUTHERN MARION COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

DH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
318 PM CDT TUE OCT 7 2008

MSZ054-055-072050-
SIMPSON MS-COPIAH MS-
318 PM CDT TUE OCT 7 2008

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL WAS
LOCATED 9 MILES SOUTH OF HOPEWELL AT 318 PM CDT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
24 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

PEOPLE IN EASTERN COPIAH AND NORTHWESTERN SIMPSON COUNTIES SHOULD
MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

DHB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
329 PM CDT TUE OCT 7 2008

MSZ026-072100-
GRENADA MS-
329 PM CDT TUE OCT 7 2008

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL AND
40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED 3 MILES NORTHWEST OF LEFLORE AT 329 PM
CDT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 22 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

PEOPLE IN WESTERN GRENADA COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

DHB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
526 PM CDT TUE OCT 7 2008

MSZ026-072255-
GRENADA MS-
526 PM CDT TUE OCT 7 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR GRENADA...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA SIZE HAIL AND WINDS
UP TO 45 MPH WAS LOCATED OVER GRENADA AT 526 PM CDT...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 22 MPH.

DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

PEOPLE IN EASTERN GRENADA COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

BYB