Severe Thunderstorm Warning 635, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
400 PM CDT THU JUL 10 2008

.DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME QUITE WIDESPREAD
ACROSS MUCH OF THE ARKLAMISS THIS AFTERNOON AS DIURNAL MECHANISMS OF
DAYTIME HEATING HAVE TRIGGERED CONVECTION IN A VERY MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OF SOUTHERLY AND WESTERLY
FLOW OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY HAS ALSO HELPED TO GENERATE
STORMS...BUT SYNOPTIC LEVELS OF FORCING HAVE BEEN RATHER MINIMAL AS
A DOME OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
GULF IS SPREAD NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR. IT IS ON THE NORTHERN
FRIDGE OF THIS HIGH WERE THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF WESTERLIES IS
INTERACTING WITH A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO ENHANCE CONVECTION
ACROSS THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR. IT IS IN THESE LATTER AREAS WHERE
SEVERE STORMS AND POTENTIAL FLOODING DOWNPOURS WILL BE A GREATER
THREAT THROUGH EARLY TO MID EVENING. FURTHER SOUTH...SEVERE
CONVECTION WILL BE MUCH MORE ISOLATED...ALTHOUGH SCATTERED STRONG
STORMS WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING...HEAVY DOWNPOURS...AND BRIEF GUSTY
WINDS WILL BE AROUND THROUGH EARLY EVENING WHEN MOST PRECIP SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 82 SHOULD BE DONE. EXPECT CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATER
TONIGHT (AS USUAL) WITH LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES...AND MOIST GROUND
(WHERE IT RAINED) LEADING TO PATCHY FOG OR LOW CLOUD FORMATION. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM 70 TO 75 DEGREE BY MORNING.

OVERALL...ANTICIPATE THE GRADUAL DIMINISHING OF RAIN CHANCES OVER
THE REGION TOMORROW AND SATURDAY AS RIDGING ALOFT REASSERTS ITSELF
OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL (OVER THE COURSE OF 36
TO 48 HOURS) PUSH A DRIER AND WARMER AIRMASS INTO THE ARKLAMISS FROM
THE SOUTHWEST...SHOVING THE JUICY (2+ INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER)
AIRMASS INTO ALABAMA AND THE DEEP SOUTH. HOWEVER...THE TRANSITION
WILL NOT BE FAST ENOUGH TO KEEP AREAS OF EASTERN MISSISSIPPI OUT OF
THE GOOD RAIN CHANCES TOMORROW. AT LEAST ISOLATED AFTERNOON
CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE EVERYWHERE...BUT IT IS A BIT OF QUESTION
MARK ON HOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL FORM FROM GLH
SOUTH DOWN THE 55 CORRIDOR. THE LATEST GFS GUIDANCE IS NOT VERY
AGGRESSIVE IN THIS REGARD...BUT I WENT A LITTLE HIGHER...NEARER
ENSEMBLE MOS GUIDANCE WHICH HAS BEEN GENERALLY OUTPERFORMING
OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE IN POPS AND TEMPS FOR SEVERAL WEEKS. STRONGER
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TOMORROW...ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN
MISSISSIPPI...ALTHOUGH THE INFLUENCE OF RIDGING ALOFT WILL BE A BIT
STRONGER AND THIS WILL PROBABLY LIMIT THE RANDOM SEVERE RISK A BIT
MORE THAN HAS BEEN THE CASE TODAY. BY SATURDAY THE RIDGE WILL REALLY
BE PUSHING THE DRIER HEAT INTO THE AREA WITH THE RAIN PRODUCTION
ZONE SQUEEZED ENTIRELY INTO EASTERN MISSISSIPPI. THE DRIER AIRMASS
MAY NOT FEEL SO AT THE SURFACE BECAUSE SURFACE MOISTURE WILL STILL
BE IN PLACE TO DELIVER HUMIDITY AND UNCOMFORTABLE HEAT INDICES. HIGH
TEMPS COULD BE THE HOTTEST OF THE SEASON IN SOME AREAS WITH
WIDESPREAD UPPER 90S EXPECTED ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-55 (LIKE THE
MAV SUGGESTS).

PREVIOUS FORECASTER WAS THINKING THAT SUNDAY WOULD BE THE HOTTEST
DAY OF THE HEAT SPELL AS LOW LEVEL TEMPS PEAK RIGHT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SOME OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE COMING IN
SUGGESTS THAT FRONT (AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL CLOUD COVER AND
CONVECTION) COULD BEGIN TO STREAM INTO AT LEAST NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND LIMIT HEATING POTENTIAL SUNDAY.
LATEST EVIDENCE POINTS IN THIS DIRECTION TOO STRONGLY TO NOT LOWER
TEMPS A BIT FOR SUNDAY IN NORTHERN ZONES...DOWN CLOSER TO 00Z MEX
GUIDANCE VALUES (LOW TO MID 90S). I KEPT THE HOT UPPER 90S OFFERED
BY PREVIOUS FORECASTER FOR THE REST OF THE REGION. WILL HAVE TO
WATCH STRONG TO SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL AND POSSIBLE TIMING ISSUES
FOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY COMING IN FOR SUNDAY. ADDITIONALLY...IF
SATURDAY AND SUNDAYS HEAT FULLY MATERIALIZES THEN WIDESPREAD HEAT
INDEX VALUES APPROACHING 105 DEGREES WILL BE POSSIBLE WEST OF I-55
CORRIDOR. WILL NOT MENTION THIS IN THE HWO FOR NOW BECAUSE OF
SURFACE MOISTURE (AND ULTIMATE TEMPERATURE) UNCERTAINTIES. /BB/

ATTACHED THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION:

THE SAT-WED TIME FRAME LOOKS TO BE ON THE INTERESTING SIDE AS THERE
ARE SEVERAL KEY WEATHER FEATURES TO DISCUSS. FIRST WILL BE THE HEAT
AS THE REGION SEES A 594-595 DM MID-LEVEL HIGH CONTROL THE REGION.
THIS RIDGE BREAKS DOWN ON SUN AND ALLOWS A DECENT TROUGH TO DROP
INTO THE AREA AND BRING A ROUND OF STORMS...SOME LIKELY POTENT. ON
THE HEELS OF THE DECENT TROUGH WILL BE A WEAK SFC FRONT THAT LOOKS
TO PUSH INTO AND THROUGH THE CWA MON AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TUE. DRIER
LOW LEVEL AIR LOOKS TO FILTER IN AND SOME RELIEF FROM THE HEAT
SHOULD BE EXPECTED. AT LEAST RELATIVELY SPEAKING. THE AREA STAYS DRY
THROUGH MID WEEK UNTIL THE AIRMASS BEGINS TO SLOWLY MODIFY TOWARD
THE END OF THE WEEK.

WITH THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE PEAKING ON SAT THEN BREAKING DOWN ON SUN
WITH A WEAK SFC FRONT GETTING CLOSER...THE HEAT WILL BE ON BOTH
SAT/SUN THE AREA WILL SEE THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW GENERALLY OUT OF THE
WEST WHICH ALWAYS SPELLS VERY WARM TEMPS. 925MB TEMPS WILL BE
RUNNING 26-27C AND 850MB TEMPS 20C. CLIMATOLOGY SUGGESTS THOSE
VALUES WILL YIELD MID/UPPER 90S FOR THE AREA. SURPRISING...LATEST
GUID OR PREV GUID...IS NOT REAL BULLISH ON VERY WARM TEMPS. THE
LATEST GUID HAS SAT WITH THE WARMEST VALUES WHICH RANGE FROM 92-95.
SUN...FOR SOME REASON...HAS LOWER VALUES. THE CWA IS GENERALLY IN
THE LOWER 90S. BASED ON RECENT OBSERVED TRENDS...IM NOT BUYING THE
COOLISH GFS GUID AND WILL BE WARMING ALL AREAS INTO THE MID/UPPER
90S (95-97). FOR SAT...THIS IS A 2-4 DEGREE ADJ WHILE SUN IS MORE ON
THE ORDER OF 4-6 DEGREES. SUNDAY COULD REALLY BE THE WARMEST DAY OF
THE YEAR AS THERE WILL BE THAT WEAK SFC FRONT GETTING CLOSER AND WE
ALWAYS OVER ACHIEVE ON TEMPS JUST AHEAD OF A BOUNDARY. LASTLY...SFC
MOISTURE WILL BE A TAD DRY AND I EXPECT MIXING TO OFFER SFC DEWPTS
63-67 DEGREES. THIS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL ALSO HELP WITH THE WARM
TEMPS.

AS FOR STORMS EACH OF THESE DAYS...NOT EXPECTING MUCH ON SAT AS THE
AREA LOOKS TO BE IN A NEG THETA E ADJ REGIME. THE DRIER AIR MOVING
IN WILL BE WARM AND ALLOW FOR THOSE LOWER DEWPTS WITH DIURNAL
MIXING. GUID POPS LOOK GOOD WITH ONLY ISO POPS ACROSS THE EAST. SUN
WILL BE A BIT DIFFERENT. THERE DOESNT LOOK TO BE ANY DRAMATIC
INCREASE IN SFC MOISTURE...BUT SLIGHTLY BETTER 850MB THETA E AIR
DOES MOVE IN. ADDITIONALLY...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS USUALLY A BIT
BETTER JUST AHEAD OF SFC BOUNDARIES. EVEN WITH THAT...I CAN ONLY SEE
SOME OF THE AREA HOLDING ON TO 66-68 SFC DEWPTS AT BEST. THAT ALL
SAID...IT LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT DECENT INSTABILITY WITH
MLCAPE VALUES 2400-2800 J/KG. LAPSE RATES WILL ALSO BE QUITE STEEP
AS IM EXPECTING VERTICAL TOTALS TO BE AROUND 28C. THERE WILL ALSO
BE A SOLID S/W HEADING INTO THE CWA AS NW FLOW WILL HAVE SET UP WITH
INCREASED MID LEVEL FLOW RUNNING AROUND 20KTS AT 500MB. ALL THIS HAS
THE MAKING OF A NASTY CLUSTER OF STORMS. ADD IN THE FACT THAT THEY
WILL BE EVOLVING WITH SFC TEMPS 95-97 DEGREES. WITH ALL THIS IN
MIND...WILL PAINT AN AREA ACROSS THE N HALF FOR SVR STORMS ON SUN
AND WORD IN THE HWO.

SUN NIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART OF MON WILL HINGE TOTALLY ON HOW
ACTIVITY EVOLVE SUN AFTERNOON/EVENING. GUID VALUES LOOK GOOD AND
HAVE FOLLOWED. DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIR LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE N ON MON
AND STEADILY PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY. THIS IS SUPPORTED WELL BY
ENSEMBLE GUID AND PREV RUNS AND HAVE TAPERED POPS FROM N-S ON MON.

DRIER AND LESS HOT CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE ON TAP FOR TUE-WED. GUID
POPS WERE LOW AND HAVE ACCEPTED. TEMP GUID WAS QUITE GOOD AS WELL
AND TWEAKED LOWS AT A FEW SITES THAT USUALLY OVER ACHIEVE WITH DRY
LOW-LEVEL AIR.  /CME/

&&

.AVIATION...A MORE CONVINCING COVERAGE OF NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH 03Z WITH DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AXIS ALONG OUR NRN
CWFA AND WITH A SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE APPROACHING FAR N MS. VAD WINDS
DECIDEDLY MORE W TO E THRU 5K FEET AND EXPECT BROKEN CEILINGS 4-6K
FEET TO BE COMMON BEFORE SUNSET... IFR CONDITIONS NEAR STORMS. NWD
MOVING SEA BREEZE SHOULD REALLY MIX IT UP WITH EWD MOVING STORMS AND
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THROUGH CENTRAL MS MAINLY 19-23Z. THE STORMS WILL
DECREASE IN COVERAGE FOR THE EVENING HOURS...MAINLY 03-06Z. AFTER
THE STORMS DISSIPATE... EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL WITH
BRIEF MVFR LIGHT PATCHY GROUND FOG 10-13Z. FOG POTENTIAL LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE HIGHEST AT
JAN/HEZ/PIB/HBG/NMM/MEI/HKS. /40/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       72  92  74  96 /  24  33  12  10
MERIDIAN      71  91  72  93 /  35  53  21  26
VICKSBURG     73  94  75  97 /  21  20  10   5
HATTIESBURG   72  93  73  94 /  21  37  16  21
NATCHEZ       72  92  74  94 /  16  18   5  11
GREENVILLE    73  94  75  97 /  26  31   9   8
GREENWOOD     73  93  74  97 /  35  44  11  12

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

50/40

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
346 PM CDT THU JUL 10 2008

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
112100-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-
SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-
CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-
NOXUBEE-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-
WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-
SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-
LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
346 PM CDT THU JUL 10 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY

FOR THIS EVENING...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR THROUGH 9 PM. THE
PRIMARY RISK FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS UP TO 60
MPH AND PENNY SIZE HAIL. ALSO ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE IN THE OUTLOOK AREA WITH WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH AND SMALL
HAIL. ALL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF DEADLY LIGHTNING STRIKES
AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL UP TO TWO INCHES IN LESS THAN 1 HOUR.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
HOURS AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES INTERACT AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONT DROPPING
IN FROM THE NORTH. THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN QUITE UNSTABLE IN POCKETS
THE RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS FINALLY DIMINISHING BETWEEN 9 PM
AND MIDNIGHT FOLLOWING THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...MAINLY OVER EASTERN MISSISSIPPI WHERE THE MAIN RISKS
WILL BE WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL. THESE STORMS WILL AGAIN
DEVELOP FROM THE DAYTIME HEATING OF A VERY MOISTURE LADEN AIRMASS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

40

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1236 PM CDT THU JUL 10 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1140 AM     TSTM WND DMG     4 N DURANT              33.14N 89.86W
07/06/2008                   HOLMES             MS   PUBLIC

            THERE WAS ROOF DAMAGE TO A BARN AND THE GUTTER WAS RIPPED
            OFF THE STRUCTURE.

&&

HAMRICK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1238 PM CDT THU JUL 10 2008

MSZ029-101750-
WEBSTER MS-
1238 PM CDT THU JUL 10 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS BUILDING EAST OVER WEBSTER COUNTY...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA SIZE HAIL AND 40 TO
50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED OVER BELLEFONTAINE AT 1238 PM CDT...MOVING
EAST AT 15 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAINS UP TO ONE INCH ALONG WITH FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING ARE ALSO LIKELY WITH THIS STORM AS IT PASSES WALTHALL AND
MOVES EAST ALONG HIGHWAY 50.

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

PEOPLE IN WEBSTER COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

40

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
135 PM CDT THU JUL 10 2008

MSZ029-101845-
WEBSTER MS-
135 PM CDT THU JUL 10 2008

...PERSISTING COMPLEX OF STORMS OVER WEBSTER COUNTY...

A COMPLEX OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY
RAINS OF UP TO TWO INCHES PER HOUR WAS CENTERED OVER CLARKSON AT 135
PM CDT...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH. LOCAL PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS AND
SMALL HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

THE RAINS ALONG WITH FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL PROBABLY
CONTINUE THROUGH 230 PM.

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

PEOPLE IN EASTERN WEBSTER COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

40

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
202 PM CDT THU JUL 10 2008

MSZ028>033-101910-
CLAY MS-LOWNDES MS-WEBSTER MS-MONTGOMERY MS-OKTIBBEHA MS-CHOCTAW MS-
202 PM CDT THU JUL 10 2008

...SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG HIGHWAY 82
   CORRIDOR FROM WINONA TO EUPORA TO STARKVILLE AND UP TO WEST
   POINT THROUGH 4 PM...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE RAPIDLY DEVELOPING AND MOVING EAST
ALONG HIGHWAY 82 EAST OF WINONA THROUGH 4 PM. AT 202 PM...A COUPLE
OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINS OF 1
TO 2 INCHES AND PEA SIZE HAIL WERE LOCATED 4 MILES SOUTH OF
LODI...AND OVER WEST POINT...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL ALSO PRODUCE FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
AND GUSTY WINDS. A COUPLE OF THE STORMS COULD ALSO BRIEFLY BECOME
SEVERE DURING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

PEOPLE IN NORTHERN CHOCTAW...NORTHERN OKTIBBEHA...CENTRAL
MONTGOMERY...SOUTHERN WEBSTER...NORTHERN LOWNDES AND SOUTHERN CLAY
COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

40

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