Severe Thunderstorm Warning 598, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
305 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2008

.SHORT TERM(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME WITH A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES. JET MAXES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVES WERE STAYING NORTH OF THE REGION.
ON THE SURFACE A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
THROUGH ARKANSAS.  A MCV INDUCED COMPLEX WAS NOTED OVER
ARKANSAS...EXTENDING INTO NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI WHICH HAS SENT
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE REGION. ONE OF THEM HAS HELP TO
TRIGGER SOME ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.
TO THE SOUTH THE SEA BREEZE HAS TRIGGERED SOME CONVECTION IN THE
SOUTH...BUT LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW HAS LIMITED HOW FAR INLAND IT
GOES.

MODELS CONTINUE TO FAVOR BETTER RAIN CHANCES FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SURFACE FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION
OVER THE WEEKEND AND WILL MENANDER ACROSS THE NORTH HALF. PRECIPITABLE
WATER WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 2 INCHES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SO BEGINNING TONIGHT EXPECT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE OVER NIGHT IN THE
NORTH WITH THE APPROACHING SURFACE BOUNDARY...BUT THE SOUTH SHOULD DISSIPATE
EARLY...BEING DIURNAL IN NATURE. THE GFS PAINTS SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS ACROSS THE NORTH WITH SOME COMPLEXES COMING IN NORTHWEST FLOW.
ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY A STRONG SHORT WAVE COMES DOWN INTO
THE REGION WITH A GOOD UPPER JET OF AROUND 70 KNOTS IN THE FRONT LEFT
QUAD MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS MAY TRIGGER SOME SEVERE STORMS
WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...DAYTIME HEATING AND SOME INSTABILITY IN
PLACE. WILL MENTION IT IN THE HWO. THE UPPER JET AXIS WILL PASS EAST
OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY NIGHT. ON MONDAY THE UPPER PATTERN FLATTENS OUT
AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WASHES OUT IN LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW. WE WILL
GO BACK TO A MORE DIURNAL PATTERN.

AS FAR AS POPS ARE MAV GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE REASONABLE. WITH THE TEMPS
WENT WITH MAV GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS AND MOS GUIDANCE FOR NIGHTLY LOWS
THROUGH MONDAY./17/

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
WE GO INTO A FLAT RIDGE DIURNAL PATTERN UNTIL ANOTHER STRONG SHORT WAVE
PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THERE WERE SOME
DIFFERENCES TO THE DEGREE OF STRENGTH WITH THE SHORT WAVE WITH THE
LONG TERM MODELS AND ENSEMBLES. MADE NO CHANGES TO FORECAST
GRIDS./17/

/PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME LESS
AMPLIFIED EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEVERAL IMPULSES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE FLOW TOWARD THE AREA DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD.   THE
BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO WASH OUT OVER THE CWFA BY SOUTHERLY FLOW ON
SUNDAY AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK. FOR THE WORK WEEK
ACTIVITY SHOULD BECOME MORE TYPICAL OF SUMMERTIME WITH MOST OF THE
CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON BEING A RESULT OF THE SEA BREEZE.
OVERALL HAVE REMAINED RATHER CLOSE TO GUI POPS THROUGH THE LONG TERM
AND FOR AT LEAST THE WORK WEEK HAVE SHOWN A DIURNAL TREND TO
CONVECTION.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO BE NEAR
CLIMATOLOGY WITH LOWER 90S FOR HIGHS AND LOWER 70S FOR LOWS EXPECTED
FOR THE ARKLAMISS REGION.  ENSEMBLE GUI IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR
THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES.  HAVE REMAINED WITH GUI THROUGH THE
LONG TERM FOR TEMPERATURES. /14/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       72  88  69  90 /  30  54  31  32
MERIDIAN      69  88  67  89 /  38  56  44  43
VICKSBURG     71  90  70  92 /  24  42  21  23
HATTIESBURG   70  88  69  89 /  20  41  38  45
NATCHEZ       70  89  69  91 /  17  39  22  20
GREENVILLE    72  89  70  92 /  43  38  36  21
GREENWOOD     72  86  71  89 /  52  48  42  25

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...17

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
255 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2008

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
051945-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-
SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-
CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-
NOXUBEE-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-
WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-
SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-
LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
255 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY

ISOLATED STRONG AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING...MAINLY FOR AREAS ALONG THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR
AND FOR AREAS OF EASTERN MISSISSIPPI. THE GREATEST CHANCE OF SEEING
ANY SEVERE STORMS THROUGH EARLY EVENING WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 82...ESPECIALLY THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA REGION. DAMAGING WINDS
AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN RISK.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...MAINLY FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20.
DAMAGING WIND AND PENNY SIZED HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN RISK AS THE
STORMS MOVE SOUTHEAST.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 55.
DAMAGING WIND AND PENNY SIZED HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN RISK AS THE
STORMS MOVE TO THE SOUTH OR SOUTH-SOUTHEAST.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...MAY BE NEEDED OVER THE WEEKEND.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

CME

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