Severe Thunderstorm Warning 588, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
400 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2008

.DISCUSSION...

THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHEAST LA/SW MS EARLY THIS
AFTN FORMED A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX WHICH IS CURRENTLY
TRACKING EWD ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN MS. HAVE UPPED POPS
ACROSS SE/ERN MS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. SEVERE POTENTIAL IS MOSTLY
LIMITED TO ERN/SE MS WHERE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IS RELATIVELY
UNTAPPED AHEAD OF APPROACHING MCV. WOULD EXPECT AN EARLY DEMISE TO
CONVECTION THIS EVNG SINCE IT GOT STARTED EARLY AND SINCE MCV IS
PROGRESSIVE.

A BREAK IN THE ACTION WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT...BUT
EXPECT ANOTHER CONVECTIVE COMPLEX TO DEVELOP NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA LATE TONIGHT IN ASSOC WITH NRN STREAM TROUGH AND COLD FRONT.
EXPECT THIS COMPLEX MAY MOVE INTO NRN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE PRE-DAWN AREAS...ALONG AND N OF HWY 82 IN SIMILAR
THINKING TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. ORGANIZED NATURE OF THE TSTMS COULD
YIELD SOME SVR WEATHER AND WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF THIS IN THE HWO.

MUCH OF SVR WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR SUNDAY/SUN NIGHT WILL BE
CONTINGENT ON CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...BUT EXPECT FORCING/INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR AT
LEAST MARGINALLY SVR ACTIVITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR STORM ORGANIZATION...ESPECIALLY OVER CNTRL/ERN MS.
GENERALLY SPEAKING...THE FORECAST REMAINS THE SAME FOR SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE NEEDED.
PORTIONS OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR THIS PERIOD AND THE EXTENDED
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. /EC/

FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

THE BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG TO THE SOUTH. ALONG WITH
INCREASING SHEAR THE AIR MASS WILL BE UNSTABLE ENOUGH SUNDAY TO
MAINTAIN MENTION OF SEVERE STORMS. WITH SUCH MOISTURE IN PLACE/PW
VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES/PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED.
RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE FROM THE NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE 850 MB
TROUGH TRACKS SWD AND LOW LEVEL NWLY FLOW DEVELOPS. CURRENT MODEL
PROJECTIONS SHOW THE MAIN RAIN CHANCES PRIMARILY OVER SRN ZONES BY
12Z MONDAY.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THERE WERE A FEW CHANGES IN THE
EXTENDED...MAINLY TO THE POPS. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW NEXT WEEK
COOLER THAN NORMAL AND WET LATER IN THE WEEK. STUCK WITH GUIDANCE
FOR TEMPS AND POPS.

BY MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED THROUGH THE CWA...WITH A
FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LINGERING OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA IN THE MORNING AND DISSIPATING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH INTO THE AREA AND APPEARS TO BRING SOME COOLER
AND MUCH DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. THE SURFACE HIGH SEEMS TO LINGER
OVER THE CWA THROUGH THURSDAY...GUIDANCE WAS DRY...SO WENT WITH NO
RAIN FOR TUES AND WED. BY EARLY THURSDAY...MOISTURE WILL BE
RETURNING TO THE REGION AND RAIN WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW. IT LOOKS LIKE
A WARM FRONT WILL RETURN TO THE CWA...BRINGING PLENTY OF WARM AND
MOIST AIR. MAINTAINED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WENT WITH CHANCE POPS SATURDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA BY SATURDAY AND
MIXES WITH THE WARM AND VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE. FROM TUE-THU
SOUNDINGS SHOW PLENTY OF SUBSIDENCE. OF COURSE AN ISOLATED SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM CAN NOT BE RULED OUT EARLY IN THE WEEK...BUT LIKE
THE DRY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES ALSO MAY NEED TO BE WARMED WITH DRY
AIR PRESSING DOWN INTO THE CWA...EVEN WITH A COLD FRONT GOING
THROUGH. FOR NOW GUIDANCE WAS GOOD.

&&

.AVIATION...SCT SHRA AND TSRA HAVE DEVELOPED OVER MUCH OF THE
ARKLAMISS REGION THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS.  MAINLY VFR FLIGHT
CATEGORIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE WHEN A SITE IS AFFECTED BY THIS SHRA/TSRA
ACTIVITY.  EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO DIE DOWN AFTER SUNSET TO LEAVE
THE AREA QUIET FOR A FEW HOURS.  DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO
SUNDAY...CEILINGS WILL POSSIBLY LOWER TO GIVE MVFR CEILINGS AT
TIMES.  THIS TREND WILL BE FROM THE NORTH OVERNIGHT AND WILL SPREAD
SOUTH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.  A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION
FROM THE NORTH OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL BRING SCT SHRA AND TSRA TO THE
NORTHWEST DELTA AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND SPREAD SOUTH INTO THE REGION
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.  SHRA AND TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
ENTIRE REGION THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA. /14/

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

EC/07/03/14

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