Severe Thunderstorm Warning 586, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
400 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2008

.DISCUSSION...

THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHEAST LA/SW MS EARLY THIS
AFTN FORMED A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX WHICH IS CURRENTLY
TRACKING EWD ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN MS. HAVE UPPED POPS
ACROSS SE/ERN MS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. SEVERE POTENTIAL IS MOSTLY
LIMITED TO ERN/SE MS WHERE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IS RELATIVELY
UNTAPPED AHEAD OF APPROACHING MCV. WOULD EXPECT AN EARLY DEMISE TO
CONVECTION THIS EVNG SINCE IT GOT STARTED EARLY AND SINCE MCV IS
PROGRESSIVE.

A BREAK IN THE ACTION WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT...BUT
EXPECT ANOTHER CONVECTIVE COMPLEX TO DEVELOP NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA LATE TONIGHT IN ASSOC WITH NRN STREAM TROUGH AND COLD FRONT.
EXPECT THIS COMPLEX MAY MOVE INTO NRN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE PRE-DAWN AREAS...ALONG AND N OF HWY 82 IN SIMILAR
THINKING TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. ORGANIZED NATURE OF THE TSTMS COULD
YIELD SOME SVR WEATHER AND WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF THIS IN THE HWO.

MUCH OF SVR WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR SUNDAY/SUN NIGHT WILL BE
CONTINGENT ON CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...BUT EXPECT FORCING/INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR AT
LEAST MARGINALLY SVR ACTIVITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR STORM ORGANIZATION...ESPECIALLY OVER CNTRL/ERN MS.
GENERALLY SPEAKING...THE FORECAST REMAINS THE SAME FOR SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE NEEDED.
PORTIONS OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR THIS PERIOD AND THE EXTENDED
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. /EC/

FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

THE BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG TO THE SOUTH. ALONG WITH
INCREASING SHEAR THE AIR MASS WILL BE UNSTABLE ENOUGH SUNDAY TO
MAINTAIN MENTION OF SEVERE STORMS. WITH SUCH MOISTURE IN PLACE/PW
VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES/PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED.
RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE FROM THE NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE 850 MB
TROUGH TRACKS SWD AND LOW LEVEL NWLY FLOW DEVELOPS. CURRENT MODEL
PROJECTIONS SHOW THE MAIN RAIN CHANCES PRIMARILY OVER SRN ZONES BY
12Z MONDAY.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THERE WERE A FEW CHANGES IN THE
EXTENDED...MAINLY TO THE POPS. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW NEXT WEEK
COOLER THAN NORMAL AND WET LATER IN THE WEEK. STUCK WITH GUIDANCE
FOR TEMPS AND POPS.

BY MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED THROUGH THE CWA...WITH A
FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LINGERING OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA IN THE MORNING AND DISSIPATING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH INTO THE AREA AND APPEARS TO BRING SOME COOLER
AND MUCH DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. THE SURFACE HIGH SEEMS TO LINGER
OVER THE CWA THROUGH THURSDAY...GUIDANCE WAS DRY...SO WENT WITH NO
RAIN FOR TUES AND WED. BY EARLY THURSDAY...MOISTURE WILL BE
RETURNING TO THE REGION AND RAIN WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW. IT LOOKS LIKE
A WARM FRONT WILL RETURN TO THE CWA...BRINGING PLENTY OF WARM AND
MOIST AIR. MAINTAINED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WENT WITH CHANCE POPS SATURDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA BY SATURDAY AND
MIXES WITH THE WARM AND VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE. FROM TUE-THU
SOUNDINGS SHOW PLENTY OF SUBSIDENCE. OF COURSE AN ISOLATED SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM CAN NOT BE RULED OUT EARLY IN THE WEEK...BUT LIKE
THE DRY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES ALSO MAY NEED TO BE WARMED WITH DRY
AIR PRESSING DOWN INTO THE CWA...EVEN WITH A COLD FRONT GOING
THROUGH. FOR NOW GUIDANCE WAS GOOD.

&&

.AVIATION...SCT SHRA AND TSRA HAVE DEVELOPED OVER MUCH OF THE
ARKLAMISS REGION THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS.  MAINLY VFR FLIGHT
CATEGORIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE WHEN A SITE IS AFFECTED BY THIS SHRA/TSRA
ACTIVITY.  EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO DIE DOWN AFTER SUNSET TO LEAVE
THE AREA QUIET FOR A FEW HOURS.  DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO
SUNDAY...CEILINGS WILL POSSIBLY LOWER TO GIVE MVFR CEILINGS AT
TIMES.  THIS TREND WILL BE FROM THE NORTH OVERNIGHT AND WILL SPREAD
SOUTH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.  A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION
FROM THE NORTH OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL BRING SCT SHRA AND TSRA TO THE
NORTHWEST DELTA AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND SPREAD SOUTH INTO THE REGION
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.  SHRA AND TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
ENTIRE REGION THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA. /14/

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

EC/07/03/14

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
310 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2008

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
290930-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-
SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-
CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-
NOXUBEE-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-
WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-
SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-
LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
310 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED STRONG AND ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA...ALONG AND EAST OF A
COLUMBIA TO BRANDON TO COLUMBUS LINE.

A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS
SOUTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EARLY EVENING...EVENTUALLY AFFECTING THE MACON TO MERIDIAN
TO LAUREL AREA. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA...ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA
IS FAVORABLE FOR STORMS TO PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS OF SEVERE
WEATHER...INCLUDING WIND GUSTS OF 60 MPH AND PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE
HAIL.

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT
ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. PERSONS OVER SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS AND NORTH
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI SHOULD KEEP UP TO DATE ON STORM DEVELOPMENT TO
OUR NORTH LATE TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY ALONG WITH
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA...AND THEN
ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA SUNDAY EVENING.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. A
VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL
SUPPORT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS...WITH GREATEST COVERAGE
EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN MISSISSIPPI IN THE AFTERNOON. A
FEW OF THE STORMS WILL BECOME SEVERE...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND
GUSTS GREATER THAN 60 MPH AND HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND POSSIBLY AT
TIMES FROM EARLY SUNDAY MORNING TO SUNDAY EVENING.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK.

EC

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
334 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0216 PM     TSTM WND DMG     6 ESE HAZLEHURST        31.83N 90.30W
06/28/2008                   COPIAH             MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            NUMEROUS TREES DOWN ON GREAT SOUTHERN ROAD AND DIXIE
            GARDEN ROAD.

&&

JALLEN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
342 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0326 PM     TSTM WND DMG     10 W HATTIESBURG        31.31N 89.48W
06/28/2008                   LAMAR              MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ONE TREE DOWN ON NORTH BLACK CREEK ROAD.

&&

JALLEN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
344 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0321 PM     TSTM WND DMG     10 NNW PURVIS           31.28N 89.47W
06/28/2008                   LAMAR              MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ONE TREE DOWN ALONG THE COLUMBIA-PURVIS ROAD.

&&

JALLEN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
349 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2008

MSZ065-066-074-282130-
COVINGTON MS-JONES MS-FORREST MS-
349 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2008

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL AND
40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED 4 MILES SOUTH OF SANFORD AT 349 PM
CDT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 17 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

PEOPLE IN COVINGTON...NORTHWEST FORREST AND JONES COUNTIES SHOULD
MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

JC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
350 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0339 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 W WEST HATTIESBURG    31.32N 89.43W
06/28/2008                   LAMAR              MS   PUBLIC

            ONE TREE DOWN IN SUB-DIVISION OFF OF HWY 589.

&&

JALLEN