Severe Thunderstorm Warning 569, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
322 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2008

.SHORT TERM...SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD CONVECTION HAD ERUPTED ACROSS
THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND IT LOOKS LIKE THIS
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE EAST AND SHOULD PERSIST INTO
THE EARLY EVN HRS. THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND LL FLOW TO GET A
FEW OF THESE STORMS TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTN AND FIRST PART OF THIS EVN LOOK FOR
CONVECTION TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD TO THE EAST. EVERYTHING ALONG AND
EAST OF I 55 WILL BE DRIVEN BY MESOSCALE FEATURES SUCH AS OUTFLOW
BNDRYS. THE SEABREEZE IS WHAT HELPED INITIATE THE STORMS ACROSS NE
LA AND THESE STORMS HAVE PRODUCED OUTFLOW BNDRYS FOR FURTHER
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NERN LA AND WRN MS. ISLTD TO SCT
STRONG TSRA AND A FEW SEVERE WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH ABOUT 1Z.
AFTER THAT WITH THE LACK OF ANY LL JET AND A COOLING SFC CONVECTION
WILL ONCE AGAIN DISSIPATE RATHER QUICKLY.

FOR TOMORROW AND INTO TOMORROW NIGHT THE FORECAST REMAINS QUITE
TRICKY...AS MENTIONED BY THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER. THE MDLS HAVE NOW
SLOWED DOWN A LITTLE AND KEEP ANY INFLUENCE FROM OUR APPROACHING
DISTURBANCE UNTIL THE OVERNIGHT HRS. THAT SAID THINGS SHOULD BEGIN
RATHER QUICKLY TOMORROW. THERE WILL BE DEEP SSWRLY FLOW OVER
SWRN/SCNTRL LA AND INTO SWRN MS. THIS WILL GET THE SEABREEZE TO
ACTIVATE QUICKLY AND SURGE TO THE NE. CONVECTION SHOULD BE WELL INTO
PORTIONS OF NERN LA AND SWRN MS BEFORE MIDDAY. STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN BUT LAPSE RATES MAY FINALLY BE
LESS IMPRESSIVE AS WARMER MID LEVEL TEMPS MOVE IN AHEAD OF OUR
APPROACHING SYSTEM. THAT SAID A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY STILL BE
POSSIBLE TOMORROW. THE NORTH MAY NOT SEE MUCH FOR A GOOD PORTION
DAY AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR AND MAYBE A LITTLE OF A CAP MOVE INTO THAT
AREA. THAT SAID I WILL KEEP ISLTD TSRA IN THE FCST FOR THE NORTH IF
ANY CONVECTION RUNS OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM. BY SAT
NIGHT THINGS WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP ACROSS THE NORTH AND DIE DOWN
ACROSS THE SOUTH. ALL OF THE ACTIVITY TOMORROW WILL BE DRIVEN BE
DAYTIME HEATING AND MESOSCALE FEATURES SO THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD COME
TO AN END QUICK BUT ACROSS THE NORTH OUR DISTURBANCE AND SFC BNDRY
WILL APPROACH THE AREA. THIS WILL EITHER PUSH ONGOING CONVECTION OR
INITIATE NEW CONVECTION INTO/ALONG THE HWY 82 CORRIDOR DURING THE
LATTER EVN HRS. IN THE MID LEVELS THE TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO COOL ONCE
AGAIN AND FLOW WILL INCREASE. COMBINE THAT WITH A RATHER MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND SHRA AND TSRA LOOK TO BE A GOOD BET WITH A FEW
SEVERE STORMS OVERNIGHT. SPC DID PUSH BACK THE SLIGHT RISK JUST A
LITTLE BUT IT STILL COMES DOWN INTO THE EXTREME NWRN PORTION OF THE
CWA. CONVECTION SHOULD MAKE IT TWRDS THE I 20 CORRIDOR BEFORE
SUNRISE. /CAB/

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY...THERES NOT A WHOLE LOT
IN THE WAY OF CHANGES FROM THE MODELS PERSPECTIVE AS TO HOW THINGS
WILL PAN OUT THROUGH THE LONG TERM.  THE LONG WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY
OVER THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO DICTATE THE HAPPENINGS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA DURING A GOOD BIT OF THE PERIOD.  HOWEVER BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...MODELS DO BEGIN TO SHOW THE UPPER TROUGH
RELAXING ITS GRIP OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ALLOWING
AN UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST TO SLIDE FURTHER EAST...ONLY TO THEN
RETREAT BACK TO THE WEST DURING THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS THE
TROUGH ONCE AGAIN BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION.

NO MAJOR CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON.
THEREFORE THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. /19/

SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY...THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL SIT OVER THE
REGION DURING THE FIRST DAYS OF THE WORK WEEK. THE UPPER JET WILL
BRUSH NRN ZONES SUNDAY AS LOW LEVEL JET FLOW REACHES 30 KTS OVER
MANY AREAS. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG INTO THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN TO THE
REAR OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY BUT WITH A COUPLE OF SURFACE WAVES
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE REGION THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF LEEWAY TO
ALLOW INTERACTION BETWEEN DEEPER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY. WITH DEEP
MOISTURE...AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF HEALTHY WIND
SHEAR WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCES FOR SEVERE STORMS AND PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN IN THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

UPPER TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA MONDAY AS WAVES DIG
ALONG ITS WRN EDGES. THE REMNANTS OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK SWD AND THE DIGGING MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALLOW A
DEGREE OF DRYING TO OCCUR NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY BUT DEEPER MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE OVER AREAS S OF INTERSTATE 20. HAVE
MAINTAINED POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE FOR THESE AREAS FOR NOW.

THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT OUT TUESDAY FOR NW FLOW ALOFT AND
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AT 850 MB. ALTHOUGH POCKETS OF INSTABILITY ARE
INDICATED...THE AIR MASS LOOKS RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE FOR
TUESDAY. FLAT MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY BUT
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE BEGIN TO RECOVER IN LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW.
850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT CONTINUES TO INCREASE THROUGH THURSDAY FOR
THE RETURN OF DIURNAL CONVECTION. /03/

&&

.AVIATION...A GOOD BIT OF CONVECTION FIRED OVER THE WRN HALF OF THE
CWA AND AFFECTED GLH/JAN. OTHER SITES SHOULD SEE SOME ISSUES LATER
THIS AFTN AND EARLY THIS EVN. CONVECTION WILL CAUSE TEMPO MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS AND VISBIES. VISBIES WILL PROBABLY BE AFFECTED THE MOST AS
THEY COULD DROP TO 1SM. CONVECTION WILL DIE DOWN AROUND 1/2Z AND
EVERYTHING SHOULD BE IN VFR SHORTLY AFTER THAT. THERE WILL LIKELY BE
SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OUT THERE AND THIS WILL PROBABLY HELP KEEP
THINGS IN VFR MOST OF THE NIGHT. TEMPO MVFR VISBIES COULD BE AN
ISSUE IF SKIES CLEAR OUT. /CAB/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       74  91  71  86 /  49  31  32  63
MERIDIAN      71  91  70  86 /  50  28  29  64
VICKSBURG     73  91  72  87 /  35  34  32  59
HATTIESBURG   71  92  72  87 /  52  37  23  62
NATCHEZ       72  89  72  87 /  22  52  33  63
GREENVILLE    75  92  72  86 /  30  18  46  45
GREENWOOD     74  92  73  85 /  33  16  46  50

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM/AVIATION: CAB
LONG TERM: 19

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
330 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2008

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
282030-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-
SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-
CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-
NOXUBEE-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-
WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-
SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-
LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
330 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY

ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS PRODUCING HAIL LARGER THAN DIMES OR WINDS TO
60 MPH WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. SCATTERED STRONG STORMS PRODUCING SMALL HAIL
AND GUSTY WINDS TO 45 MPH WILL ALSO OCCUR. IN ADDITION...TORRENTIAL
DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH MANY STORMS AND THE QUICK ONE TO TWO
INCHES OF RAINFALL THEY COULD DELIVER IN ISOLATED LOCATIONS MAY CAUSE
MINOR PONDING OF WATER ISSUES.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PARKED OVER THE ARKLAMISS WILL ONCE
AGAIN COMBINE WITH MOIST FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO TO PRODUCE
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. LEVELS OF INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR
SHOULD NOT BE SUFFICIENT FOR THE WIDESPREAD PRODUCTION OF SEVERE
STORMS...BUT POCKETS OF HIGHER INSTABILITY SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO
GENERATE SOME INTENSE STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS LOCATIONS
NORTH OF INTERSTATE TWENTY SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. THE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE HIGHEST DURING THIS TIME
FRAME ALONG AND NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR. ANY SEVERE STORMS
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE COMBINATION OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND COLD
FRONT SHOULD GENERATE POWERFUL THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
REGION DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. THESE STORMS WILL MOVE TOWARD THE
ARKLAMISS LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT MORE SO THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS SATURDAY. MOST CLUSTERS OF STORMS WILL LIKELY HAVE A TENDENCY
TO WEAKEN AS THEY HEAD INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...BUT
LOCATIONS NORTH OF INTERSTATE TWENTY WILL STILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
EXPERIENCE SOME SEVERE WEATHER DURING THIS PERIOD.

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY AS THE UPPER DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PERSIST
ACROSS THE REGION.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...MAY BE NEEDED

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

CAB

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
416 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2008

MSZ041-042-272155-
SHARKEY MS-YAZOO MS-
416 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2008

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM IN SOUTHERN SHARKEY COUNTY...
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL AND
40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED 13 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HOLLY BLUFF AT
416 PM CDT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 13 MPH.

PEOPLE IN SHARKEY AND YAZOO COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM
CLOSELY.

MME

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
420 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2008

MSZ055-056-065-272150-
COVINGTON MS-SMITH MS-SIMPSON MS-
420 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2008

A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA TO DIME
SIZE HAIL AND 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WERE LOCATED OVER EASTERN SIMPSON
AND WESTERN SMITH COUNTY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 13 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

PEOPLE IN COVINGTON...SIMPSON AND SMITH COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE CITY
OF MAGEE...SHOULD MONITOR THESE STORMS CLOSELY.

EEC