Severe Thunderstorm Warning 503, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
554 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2008

.DISCUSSION...MADE A QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST POP AND WX GRIDS BASED ON
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS THIS AFTERNOON. RADAR TRENDS SHOW THAT LITTLE TO
NO SHOWERS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN
SECTIONS OF THE CWFA. WHAT FEW HAVE DEVELOPED HAVE BEEN EXTREMELY
BRIEF. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THIS PORTION OF THE CWFA IS MORE
PRONOUNCED. AS A RESULT HAVE ADJUSTED POPS DOWN AND REMOVED WX OVER
THE EXTREME NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWFA FOR THIS
EVENING AND LEFT MOST OF THE POPS AS IS FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA WHERE MORE SUPPORT FOR STORMS EXISTS.
MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO DIE DOWN OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS THIS EVENING AS HEATING IS LOST. OTHERWISE NO OTHER CHANGES
WERE MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST. UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE ALREADY BEEN
SENT.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...TODAY HAS BEEN THE WARMEST DAY THUS FAR FOR
SEVERAL SITES AROUND THE AREA WITH MOST LOCATIONS REACHING THE MID
90S EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FINALLY GOT GOING WITHIN THE PAST HOUR OR SO...MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THIS IS LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTH. SOME STORMS HAVE GOTTEN STRONG TO SEVERE
AND WILL LIKELY SEE THIS CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

MODELS INDICATE THAT THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
SHORT TERM WITH THE BERMUDA HIGH NOSING STILL INTO THE AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS AT THE SURFACE. SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO
INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE
REGION WITH PWATS COMING BACK INTO THE 1.6-1.8 INCH RANGE. DEWPOINTS
WILL BE ON THE RISE AND TEMPS WILL COME MORE INTO LINE WITH NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

FOR TONIGHT...CONVECTION SHOULD END AFTER SUNSET AND CONDITIONS
WILL CLEAR FOR ANOTHER NIGHT. TEMPS WILL MOST LIKELY BE A LITTLE
WARMER TONIGHT GIVEN THE WARM DAYTIME TEMPS WE HAVE ACHIEVED TODAY.
I WENT WITH WHAT GUIDANCE GAVE ME FOR LOWS...BUT BUMPED DOWN A
COUPLE OF SPOTS THAT GENERALLY GET COOLER. GUIDANCE GAVE ME HIGHER
POPS THAN ANTICIPATED. I GENERALLY KEPT WITH THIS CONSIDERING
ONGOING AND EXPECTED CONVECTION. I ONLY LOWERED POPS SLIGHTLY AROUND
AREAS WHERE DEWPOINTS MIXED PRETTY WELL THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE MORE DIFFICULT.

FOR WEDNESDAY...THINGS SHOULD START OUT CLEAR AND TEMPS WILL BE ABLE
TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 90S. GUI CAME IN TOO COOL IN SOME LOCATIONS
AND RAISED 1-2 DEGREES. MODELS TRY TO BRING A COUPLE OF SUBTLE
SHORTWAVES INTO THE AREA WITH A WEAK UPPER TROUGH OUT TO THE
WEST...SO THIS MAY HELP BRING SOME RAIN TO THE AREA...ESPECIALLY TO
THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. WITH INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW...SEA BREEZE
ACTIVITY MAY ALSO BE MORE ACTIVE THAN IT HAS BEEN THE PAST FEW DAYS.
GIVEN HIGHER MOISTURE...AND LAPSE RATES/VERTICAL TOTALS SEEM A LITTLE
MARGINAL RIGHT NOW...WE COULD GET SOME ISOLATED STRONG POSSIBLY
SEVERE STORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON. I HAVE CONTINUED MENTION OF THIS
POSSIBILITY IN THE HWO FOR TOMORROW FOR SOUTH OF I-20. GUI POPS CAME IN A
LOT HIGHER FOR THE SOUTH. WHILE I AGREE WITH THE INCREASE IN
POPS...THE AMOUNT OF INCREASE WAS QUITE DRAMATIC. I DECREASED A
LITTLE IN THE SOUTH TO AVOID SUCH A DRAMATIC CHANGE...BUT KEPT ENOUGH FOR
SCATTERED CONVECTION.

THINGS SHOULD CLEAR OUT GRADUALLY ON WED. NIGHT AND GUI CAME IN WITH
GOOD NUMBERS FOR THIS PERIOD AND WENT WITH THOSE. /28/

.LONG TERM...IN A RARE SCENARIO THE MEDIUM RANGE MDLS HAVE COME INTO
DECENT AGREEMENT AND AGREE VERY WELL WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE
SIGNIFICANCE ABOUT THIS WAS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BELIEVED THE MDLS
WERE UNDER PLAYING RAIN CHANCES LATER THIS WEEK AND DECIDED TO GO
ABV ON POPS AND SLIGHTLY LOWER ON TEMPS. THIS LOOKS GREAT AND ONLY
CHANGES REALLY NEEDED IS TO CONTINUE TO RAISE POPS AND KEEP TEMPS
SLIGHTLY COOLER. MAV GUI CAME WAY UP ON THU FOR RAIN CHANCES AND I
WILL STICK CLOSE TO THAT BUT I WILL RAISE FRI ACROSS THE EAST EVEN
MORE THAN WHAT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST CALLED FOR. THINKING IN THE GFS
HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH AT ALL AND THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER HANDLED THIS
VERY WELL. WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE MDLS OR THE
FORECAST...EXCEPT FOR THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED CHANGES...I WILL JUST
APPEND THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM PORTION OF THE AFD. /CAB/

FOR THURSDAY...MEX GUIDANCE POPS CAME WAY UP OVER WHAT WAS OFFERED
LAST NIGHT AND INITIAL THOUGHT WAS TO CUT THEM BACK JUDICIOUSLY.
HOWEVER...THE OVERALL SETUP IS RATHER FAVORABLE WITH THE SHEAR AXIS
JUST TO THE WEST AND DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW TRYING TO GET ESTABLISHED
NEAR OR JUST EAST OF SABINE PASS. BEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHOULD BE
TO OUR WEST...BUT LACK OF CAPPING OVER THE ARKLAMISS SHOULD ALLOW
BOUNDARIES TO PROPAGATE THIS WAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WHILE
CONTINUING TO PRODUCE CONVECTION. FAIR AMOUNT OF HIGHER CLOUDS
AROUND PRECEDING AFTERNOON ACTIVITY WILL WORK TO HOLD TEMPS DOWN IN
THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.

FRIDAY SEEMS TO HOLD MORE PROMISE FOR RAIN THAN THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH
SOME MODEL SOLUTIONS (SUCH AS THE EURO) LOOK SUSPICIOUSLY DRY.
OVERALL ENSEMBLE OUTPUT SUGGESTS LOW LEVEL RIDGING WILL SNEAK
FURTHER BACK TO THE EAST BY FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR DEEPER AND STRONGER
SOUTHERLY FLOW UP INTO THE ARKLAMISS. OTHER FACTORS BEING SIMILAR TO
THURSDAY...THE INCREASED MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHOULD MAKE FOR MORE
ACTIVITY (ALTHOUGH MEX POPS WERE GENERALLY LOWER THAN WHAT WAS
OFFERED FOR THURSDAY). ENDING UP RAISING GUIDANCE POPS 10 POINTS OR
SO IN MOST AREAS...ALTHOUGH REMAINING CLOSE TO GUIDANCE HIGHS NEAR
90.

SATURDAYS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY LEVEL WILL RELY ON HOW MUCH TROPICAL
MOISTURE WAS ABLE TO GET NORTH INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT AS THE INFLUENCE OF THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SHEAR AXIS MAY
WANE. SOME UNCERTAINTIES WITH STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF MOISTURE
AXIS...BUT HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN JUICE (AND SUBSEQUENT SHOWERS AND
STORMS) IN SOUTHEAST ZONES. CONTINUED TO RAISE GUIDANCE POPS A
TOUCH...COMING CLOSE TO ENSEMBLE AVERAGES. TEMPERATURES MAINLY NEAR
GUIDANCE (UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S).

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE A QUESTION MARK GIVEN
UNCERTAINTIES WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW VECTORS. CONFIDENCE HIGHER THAT A
FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH ON SUNDAY WITH WEAK
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. ASSUMING MOISTURE IS SUFFICIENT...WILL HAVE TO
WATCH FOR POTENT STORMS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT IN AT LEAST
NORTHERN HALF OF ZONES AS BETTER LAPSE RATES WORKING INTO WILL
PROVIDE DECENT INSTABILITY. STILL NOT ENOUGH GOING FOR THE SETUP
THIS FAR OUT TO MENTION IN THE HWO. POTENTIAL FOR THE BOUNDARY TO
STALL IN THE VICINITY WITH WEAK NORTHWEST ALOFT MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
MCS THREAT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...BUT IT IS WAY TO FAR OUT TO
HAVE CONFIDENCE IN THAT DIRECTION. EVEN IF THE FRONT MAKES IT DOWN
TO I-20...IT PROBABLY WILL HAVE LITTLE COOL OR DRY AIR PUSH AND
TEMPS SHOULD TREND UPWARDS A BIT (AND I WENT CLOSER TO ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE THAN LATEST MEX IN THAT REGARD). /BB/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAINLY
OVER SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BEGIN TO DIE
DOWN AROUND SUNSET. THIS WILL LEAVE FOR MAINLY CLEAR SKIES DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. CU BASED AROUND 5-7K FT WILL AGAIN DEVELOP ON
WEDNESDAY BY THE LATE MORNING AND ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       68  92  69  86 /  20  29  35  63
MERIDIAN      65  91  67  88 /  18  15  22  58
VICKSBURG     68  92  70  86 /  36  39  41  62
HATTIESBURG   69  92  71  86 /  25  49  28  65
NATCHEZ       69  90  72  86 /  32  52  33  69
GREENVILLE    70  93  70  86 /  21  23  37  56
GREENWOOD     69  92  71  86 /  17  18  31  57

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

14

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
230 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2008

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
251930-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-
SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-
CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-
NOXUBEE-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-
WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-
SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-
LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
230 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING. A FEW OF THESE MAY BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE AND PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. AREAS ALONG AND
SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM GREENVILLE...TO JACKSON...TO HATTIESBURG
WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING ANY ISOLATED ACTIVITY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20. THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 2 AND 7 PM AND BRING THE RISK FOR
SMALL HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS THEY MOVE FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

28/CAB

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